Netbook OS Market & Linux

Soldato
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Hi,

So I've just read a report that shows that 90% of the Netbook market is XP!

http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=14782

also the report goes on to state:-


Carphone Warehouse in the UK stopped carrying Linux-based netbooks in many of its stores after seeing return rates as high as 20%.


"When they [Linux netbook buyers] realize their Linux-based netbook PC doesn't deliver that same quality of experience, they get frustrated and take it back."

I guess support for a Linux based OS might have also been a struggle for Carephone Warehouse.

Surely this is really one in the eye for Linux, we always be told how far it's come and how user friendly it now is but Netbook users don't seem convinced.

So what's the problem, are people now so hooked on Windows that they can't get their fix or anything else, or is it still that Linux really isn't ready "consumer" ready at the low end of the market, maybe support is another issue.

Obviously MS wanted to phase XP out but it's find a final niche in the Netbook Market, time to milk that last few drops out the cash cow before Windows 7 comes out.

Thoughts?

HEADRAT
 
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I think a lot of people aren't willing to try something new. Ubuntu and suse has pushed the desktop side so much the last 4 years, linux has come on leaps and bounds.

I wouldn't be supprised if windows has been buying off manufacturers/retailers.

Retailers support also must come into it, a lot of the "pc experts" at pc world haven't even heard of linux I bet.

Personnally I don't care if linux only has 10%, if that figure is accurate I don't know, I think a load of linux distro's are good and will continue to use them.
 
Mostly, yes.

If that's the case were on earth does this leave Linux, in the long grass forever, if there is no real commercial case for Linux and consumers don't seem to want it what on earth is the point of all these distros?

If Linux is only going to be a "play thing" for the gifted few I don't really see the point! The Netbook would seem to me to be the perfect place for Linux to shine, the fact that it hasn't leaves me wondering in Linux is now nothing more than a "nerds (I use the term with affection, I count myself a nerd) wet dream".

HEADRAT
 
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The figures have been produced by MS - I would be very hesitant to read too much into them, as Microsoft and truthful aren't words that tend to get said in the same phrase.

The CEO of Asus went on record saying that there were as many returns for Windows-based netbooks as there were Linux-based netbooks.

It'll be interesting when ARM-based netbooks are released later in the year - they'll be smaller, more powerful, longer-batteries, etc... but most importantly, Windows can't run on ARM processors whereas Linux can.
 
I've read that Microsoft is practically giving away XP to netbook manufacturers in order to stop them installing Linux. If people can get XP or Linux equipped netbooks at the same price, they'll normally go for XP purely due to familiarity. We'll have to see what happens when Microsoft starts pushing Windows 7, I doubt they'll be so happy to give that away for nothing to keep market share.
 
So if Linux differentiator is no longer price and ease of use/functionality is being met by XP why Linux?

ARM could be interesting but the differences would have to be significant, the fact that they will be unable to run Windows could be a nail in the coffin straight out of the gates (no pun intended).

Windows 7 seems to be getting some decent press for a change, surely brining out a Netbook that can only run Linux could be a huge mistake!

Do we have any more reliable figures floating around?

HEADRAT
 
its a choice, microsoft has dominated the market by getting organised, getting a good corporate structure and going mental on advertising as well as extremely aggressive marketing & sometime illegal/questionable business/ ethical issues.

They also have a crack team of lawyers :)

Basically why buy a ferarri when my transportation needs can be met by a Fiesta? It's all about choice.
 
If that's the case were on earth does this leave Linux, in the long grass forever
Yes. In n the main it will always remain an interesting distraction for nerds. It has no driving force, no focus, no point other than to 'be Linux'.
You must have noticed the irrational fascination of the Linux community to get Linux to run on anything with a cpu.
Yes, yes, very interesting, but does that fix the dog slow desktop and video performance that's not even as good as Win98. No.

Just accept that Linux is a tinkerers hobby that can be made to do things for free, with some time and effort.

I try my best to show Linux to others. Even people who are techno savvy have huge problems getting it to work acceptably. Primary hurdle being terrible vesa-esque video performance, even with correct drivers.
The nvidia/ati closed source drivers are both dog turd for 2d. Assuming a new user can install them without error.
Then comes the usual problems getting Wireless to work, then educating them that it's not Windows. Then you tell them that none of their games will work acceptably well. It's a tough sell.
 
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Quite simply people are just happy using Windows, the current generation have gown up with it, they know nothing else. People who are actually reasonably technical should see that now Linux is streets ahead of MS's product, but that excellence means that you must have a higher level of technical skill than most people (and most people on this forum TBH).

The only true balance at the moment is OSX. I hate to say that, but it's true :(
 
Yes. In n the main it will always remain an interesting distraction for nerds. It has no driving force, no focus, no point other than to 'be Linux'.
You must have noticed the irrational fascination of the Linux community to get Linux to run on anything with a cpu.
Yes, yes, very interesting, but does that fix the dog slow desktop and video performance that's not even as good as Win98. No.

Just accept that Linux is a tinkerers hobby that can be made to do things for free, with some time and effort.

I try my best to show Linux to others. Even people who are techno savvy have huge problems getting it to work acceptably. Primary hurdle being terrible vesa-esque video performance, even with correct drivers.
The nvidia/ati closed source drivers are both dog turd for 2d. Assuming a new user can install them without error.
Then comes the usual problems getting Wireless to work, then educating them that it's not Windows. Then you tell them that none of their games will work acceptably well. It's a tough sell.

I can't say I agree with anything you've said in the slightest. I've been using Linux for maybe 8-10 years now, and when installing Ubuntu, OpenSuSE, or any other popular distro, the graphics in 2D terms are equivalent, if not better than Windows. Sure, 3D is a different story, but there's many explanations for that that lay outside of the scope of this debate.

I've installed Linux on a plethora of systems, from SFF Compaq systems that where built in 2000, to C2D Systems. The desktop performance has always been great, and I'd struggle to find a distro that didn't work with the onboard graphics chipsets supplied by the majority of motherboard manufacturers.

Of course, if I was using a 295, there may be problems. But then, there would be in Windows. If using Windows, I would have to download and install the latest drivers, and even then would still expect bugs/flaws. The problem is that Linux does not have that support. I could not Google "Nvidia 295 drivers download Linux" and go straight to a download page as I would with Windows. Instead I would have to invest time and effort in reading through various forum post's and how to's, with the possibility of it never working.

In short, I disagree with the statement "Yes, yes, very interesting, but does that fix the dog slow desktop and video performance that's not even as good as Win98" categorically, and would ask you to provide evidence to support such a claim. Of course there are exceptions, but in this debate (i.e. discussing why Linux isn't proving popular for Netbooks), I would argue that it is simply not true. Most Netbooks use common graphics chipsets that are fully supported by the Linux kernel, so that simply can not be the case.

However, a point that others have made that is certainly pertinent is the willingness of the user to accept change. John and Jane Doe, have for a long time used Windows, and may not have ever even heard of Linux before, let alone thought of it as a replacement to Windows.

So, for them, Linux is a change. A change from normality when it comes to their expectations with using a computer. Even if Windows XP crashed every so often or a program becomes unresponsive, for the past ten-years they have experienced the same thing, and so have come to expect it and know how to deal with it (i.e. reboot or task manager). If the same thing happens in Linux, they are out of their depth. They don't know what a terminal is, nor what a PID is, nor how to use the kill command.

The general populous do not like change and do not want to feel out of their depth. They prefer normality. In most instances they prefer comfort over a learning experience.

They already know how to kill a process using Task Manager within Windows, so if they then have to learn a different process to kill a program within Linux, they will deem Linux to be inferior for not doing it the same way. "Oh, well, I always did it this way in Windows".

To speak briefly about your other point, that being that Linux is forever to be a nerds pursuit, I would have to disagree again. Microsoft has taken twenty years to build up the general populations knowledge of Windows. Linux is still in it's infancy when it comes to widespread use. Just look at how many more people are now using Linux since the relase of distro's such as Ubuntu. Sure, the numbers won't nearly approach that of Windows, but there is significant growth shown.

I remember watching a webcast not so long ago that included an interview with Steve Ballmer (it was by the 'trend measurers' company, the name escapes me). In the interview the host showed a graph of OS usage, and Linux made up a tiny number, smaller than OSX and another enterprise-centric OS if I remember rightly. Steve Ballmer openly admitted that Linux was the OS that Microsoft was keeping a close eye on.

Finally, as for why Netbooks with Linux installed are being returned, there is no doubt a multitude of reasons:


  1. As stated above, the user feels out of their depth, and does not like or is not willing to accept change.
  2. Microsoft have skewed the results to their advantage.
  3. The general population are stupid. And I mean that. They see the Xandros minimalised desktop, and think "where's the Internet Explorer icon? This thing is rubbish".
  4. They have one bad experience that they have never come across with Windows (i.e. Flash playback, or video stuttering because of a poorly configured driver etc) and realise that they've never had the same problem on Windows, "it just works". As such, Linux appears to be a waste of time.
Etcetera etcetera.

To summarise, Linux is good, and has a foundation in something good, that is, the free software movement. Time is what it needs. :)

Wall of text, HOOOOOOOOOO!
 
I can't say I agree with anything you've said in the slightest. I've been using Linux for maybe 8-10 years now, and when installing Ubuntu, OpenSuSE, or any other popular distro, the graphics in 2D terms are equivalent, if not better than Windows. Sure, 3D is a different story, but there's many explanations for that that lay outside of the scope of this debate.

There is not one time I have ever seen Linux, in 10 years, provide better video than Windows. This is on all fronts. From screen detection, vsync, speed, redraw artifacts. And yes Windows destroys Linux for 3D too. The length of your post says you are very committed to Linux and that's nice but don't let it blind you to Linux' faults and how it behaves in the hands of your next door neighbour. But, yes, we're getting off topic.

As for the Netbook thing it is primarily lack of familiarity and compatibility that can drive people away.
The technical issues on this platform are much less of a problem at the moment.

Here's a thought though, if the netbook trend continues and we see the proliferation of the Ion platform what does this mean for netbook Linux? As chipsets become more capable of media rich applications the balance tips even more towards Windows.
 
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There is not one time I have ever seen Linux, in 10 years, provide better video than Windows. This is on all fronts. From screen detection, vsync, speed, redraw artifacts. And yes Windows destroys Linux for 3D too.

Again I have to disagree (on your first point anyway). Sure, six or seven years ago I'd have to be editing Xorg.conf and calculating the right vsync etc, but for the past couple of years, this is simply not something I have had to do.

Whilst you're free to offer the argument that my experience != the general populous', I would still err on the side of caution. That is, yes, there are still numerous computers and/or graphics cards/chipsets that bugs may exist for within Linux, but for the majority of chipsets, Linux performs just as well as Windows.

The reason being that the most popular chipsets are what developers tend to code for, as that is where there is the most demand.

Furthermore, for Netbooks that are produced with Linux in mind, this is a moot point. The producers are not going to install an OS, be it Linux or Windows, with which there are obvious problems with the graphics driver. They are going to choose a chipset that is known to work with Linux when printing the boards.

Just to offer another angle, I was rotating the 3D desktop cube and using '3D Alt-Tab' provided by Compiz/Beryl et al before Windows Vista came along and gave it's version of such techniques. So I'd argue that your point about 3D is wrong, also.

To go further still, games and 3D in general work better within Windows because software houses code primarily for the Windows platform. If the same games had been coded to be used within Linux, we could expect the same level of performance. It is down to coding, or the lack thereof, for Linux. It is wrong to argue that 3D is worse in Linux, simply because this is not down to Linux; the technology exists within the Linux kernel to make use of 3D graphics, but the market is not coding for Linux. Without the games manufacturers developing games to work with Linux, how can you even expect '3D Performance' to even be comparable? You'd be wrong to argue so.

The length of your post says you are very committed to Linux and that's nice but don't let it blind you to Linux' faults and how it behaves in the hands of your next door neighbour.
Of course not, I'm a Windows technician/engineer/consultant primarily. I use Windows 7 on my Macbook Pro, Windows Server 2008 for my directory services, and Linux for my file store/development purposes (FreeNAS and Debian respectively). I am a pick'n'chooser of the computing world.

I am a firm believer in using the best tool for the job, and I'm in no way a fan boy of any 'distro' or solution.

If I didn't have Server 2008 available, I would be using OpenLDAP for my directory services, but it wouldn't be offering the same level of functionality that Active Directory does. Because I do have Server 2008 available, I use that, because it offers me the most.

If there was a new Linux package released tomorrow that did the same as AD and more, I would switch to that.

Alas, we've digressed slightly off topic :D Apologies to the OP.

As chipsets become more capable of media rich applications the balance tips even more towards Windows.

Ninja editer ;) See above as my answers relate to the same matter.

Edit 2: I evidently like the word Linux. :D
Edit 3: 33 times in two posts. I don't know what's worse, my overuse of the word, or the fact that I cared so much I counted them all (albeit with highlight on ;))
 
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Interesting and informative posts guys

Windows 7 seems to be getting some decent press for a change, surely brining out a Netbook that can only run Linux could be a huge mistake!


What do people think about ARM Netbooks not being able to run Windows, a winner because of improved battery life etc or a fatal flaw?
 
My noly remaining annoyance now with linux is the video codec for h264 playback, my TV cards got support in the latest kernel last month so now they work out of the box. I can tune BBC HD in linux now :) but the problem is the codec is so poor, windows powerdvd 8 codec takes it too the cleaners.

Ok let me be honest for one minute :) If I were to pay £120 for vista ultimate say comapred to free Ubuntu I would choice ubuntu everytime. Provided I gave up gaming and pirating software didn't exist :p

I'm happy to dual boot, I don't hate microsoft, but I don't like them either. Apple is expensive, linux is ace if you have a willingness to explore and fix problems, if you don't wanna change from windows or learn something new, forget linux.....
 
Interesting and informative posts guys




What do people think about ARM Netbooks not being able to run Windows, a winner because of improved battery life etc or a fatal flaw?

I'm sure it could run windows with some tinkering. It depends on what the netbook is designe to do, I don't know anything asbout ARM but if its just for web, e-mail, word processing then linux/BSD/OS x and windows can all do that fantastically well.

If I were to buy a netbook and the XP version was the same as linux, I would buy the XP version, keep the XP/vista key then wipe the HDD and install a linux distro.

ITs win win, you get a free windows copy and still get to use linux. That will probably account for some of those stats.
 
The OP doesn't mention that there is often a skew in hardware specifications between the Windows and Linux variants that mean the Windows variants offer vastly better value for money (larger hard disk versus small ssd, more RAM, etc). This in itself will skew demand in favour of Windows.

How many buy the Windows version (or can't get a Linux version) and then wipe it and install their distro of choice? It counts as an "XP sale" but that PC no longer uses it.

For me though, the ONE KEY ISSUE regarding Linux is that there is too much fragmentation of the community. There are so many distro's now that to the casual user they wouldn't know where to start with this "linux" thing. Even recently PCLinuxOS has undergone a "split" with many developers deciding that they would branch off and create yet another distro (Unity).

This fragmentation can only hurt the penetration of Linux. There should be agreement within the community on maybe no more than 4 distributions and a common window manager. Have a geeks version, a media version, a beginners version, and an Older PC/SFF version and thats it. Same basic toolset, same UI (with minor variations acceptable to take into account system requirements) and a clear and well publicised roadmap for future development. A common UI, and common basic tools (like file managers, network managers etc) is what standard users want and need. Then it stands a chance.

There is no fragmentation in the Windows/MacOS world. Tools are developed, not replaced with something completely unfamiliar. All MS apps have a consitent look and feel and share the same keyboard shortcuts. A large proportion of 3rd Party windows apps also tend to mirror some of the design elements of the Windows OS or MS office apps. Its a level of familiarity and comfort that Linux as a brand needs to build, and in my opinion it can only happen if there is a huge reduction in the number of tools available and consensus on design elements and toolsets.
 
I think it's purely down to familiarity, give a linux laptop to someone who has used windows for their entire life and I bet you'll get questions generally of the form 'Where's Outlook/IE/Word/Excel etc etc', they only know the generic microsoft tools, anything different would seem 'inferior', so they go back to windows...

A few years back my mum had a pc with windows XP on, and due to my sisters boyfriends browsing habits I would be roped into cleaning it up every time I went home as there were diallers and all sorts of crap present. I got fed up and installed Ubuntu, sat my mum and sister down and showed them Openoffice/Firefox/Gaim, setup the printer and they were happy as larry as they'd been able to ask basic questions on how to use the apps and shown that it really wasn't any different to anything in windows. End result was that I didn't have to do anything to that box except the letting the automatic update system run everytime I went home, so instead of 3-4 hours cleaning/reformatting the pc I'd spend a couple of minutes updating it.

With the ARM laptops, I hadn't heard that, but if manufacturer's figures say that Linux is selling well enough then It could be a decent move, an ARM setup will consume a decent chunk less power than an Atom setup, so much longer battery life which would be a very good selling point for any laptop...
 
The OP doesn't mention that there is often a skew in hardware specifications between the Windows and Linux variants that mean the Windows variants offer vastly better value for money (larger hard disk versus small ssd, more RAM, etc). This in itself will skew demand in favour of Windows.

How many buy the Windows version (or can't get a Linux version) and then wipe it and install their distro of choice? It counts as an "XP sale" but that PC no longer uses it.

For me though, the ONE KEY ISSUE regarding Linux is that there is too much fragmentation of the community. There are so many distro's now that to the casual user they wouldn't know where to start with this "linux" thing. Even recently PCLinuxOS has undergone a "split" with many developers deciding that they would branch off and create yet another distro (Unity).

This fragmentation can only hurt the penetration of Linux. There should be agreement within the community on maybe no more than 4 distributions and a common window manager. Have a geeks version, a media version, a beginners version, and an Older PC/SFF version and thats it. Same basic toolset, same UI (with minor variations acceptable to take into account system requirements) and a clear and well publicised roadmap for future development. A common UI, and common basic tools (like file managers, network managers etc) is what standard users want and need. Then it stands a chance.

There is no fragmentation in the Windows/MacOS world. Tools are developed, not replaced with something completely unfamiliar. All MS apps have a consitent look and feel and share the same keyboard shortcuts. A large proportion of 3rd Party windows apps also tend to mirror some of the design elements of the Windows OS or MS office apps. Its a level of familiarity and comfort that Linux as a brand needs to build, and in my opinion it can only happen if there is a huge reduction in the number of tools available and consensus on design elements and toolsets.

Another way to look at it is - instead of calling every linux os "linux" developers should/are? focusing on calling it Ubuntu say or opensuse. Why does every OS have to just called "linux"?

They all have a different target audience. Ubuntu pretty much has the "it just work, desktop for beginners" it should/is just marketed as Ubuntu, not "linux".

I like all the different distro's, they all have different purposes.
 
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