Yeah pretty much everybody I have talked to in the car game say the same thing, there will be up to 50% less new cars built next year of some models, even fewer than this year, which will only stoke the second hand market even more.
New car delays.
- Thread starter zuludawn
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Yeah pretty much everybody I have talked to in the car game say the same thing, there will be up to 50% less new cars built next year of some models, even fewer than this year, which will only stoke the second hand market even more.
I was quoted 20 weeks for my ID.3 when I ordered on 16 Aug. I think that's ambitious but there's still hope.
I'm pretty ignorant with regards to the whole issue so excuse the stupid question but... are low tech cars (lets say a Dacia Sandero for arguments sake) effected to the same degree?
Or to put it another way, are the chips shortages mainly effecting the ICE and driver assistance systems or does it filter right down to ABS modules, ECUs and other essentials of any modern car?
Or to put it another way, are the chips shortages mainly effecting the ICE and driver assistance systems or does it filter right down to ABS modules, ECUs and other essentials of any modern car?
Getting dry out there, also know a couple of guys who are now saying its getting hard, the record sales have been great but now the issue is inventory to maintain the sales rate.
I rejected Ferrari offer last week as had no intention on selling if they can't get me into another car, this week they get back in touch with a better offer, to my response was I would be totally crazy to let you take my car that is better spec than majority on the market for a trade price you will wack 20-30k profit on and then I am stuck with no car in a market where the prices are on the up. The sales guy was quite open and did admit and agree I was totally correct and he just said the lack of Speciale is now causing a demand swing move to 458's and they are really struggling to find cars as owners don't want to sell. So though I have potentially missed out on a Speciale if the values of them go mental, then 458 Italias will get dragged up in value also, just like the CSL effect on regular E46 M3's which have now exploded in cost for nice examples as spotless low mileage CSL's now fetch over 100k.
I remember buying my M3 for £6900, won't find a similar nice car now for less than 15k and proper nice ones are now 20-40k.
Market going crazy and on stuff like E46 M3, S2000, R34 GTR, special edition Ferrari I don't see it ever stopping as its not like people are falling over themselves to buy the new stuff, lots of Pista, SF90 in stock at all dealerships and prices falling yet no one buying, the real bargain in coming months could be an 812 SF as I can see them bouncing, be shocked if they hit 200k if they do would be a great buy as surely will go back up in future, last epic V12, the best V12 by miles!
Think it effects most but of cars the percentage of impact differs across different cars for whatever reason, but even regular cooking models of some cars have production issues or spec changes due to lack of stuff like air bags, wifi modules etc.
The whole market seems to be going short again across the board, trying to order the raw materials to build the garage, the prices have doubled as supply is thin on ground so I can only conclude now nice weather is coming to an end people are maybe gonna start back on DIY projects, whatever everything seems to be going short again.
You have a special car, selling it and bagging some profit feels good, but then you come to re-buy and your in a pickle, or you decide you made a mistake so want back in same model of car and have to pay way beyond, its why I am not letting 458 go as I'd struggle like crazy to replace it.
Unless you can get into a car guaranteed at a good price, like maybe buying a mates car or a car for whatever reason has not exploded upwards and its something you want, only then is it a good buy. Its why I jumped in the Spyder, I got it at a great price for what is an extremely rare car and so I feel I can't lose anything on it but potentially make a few quid.
One shocker is 981 GT4 values are still falling, I know they made a lot, long gearing, 718 version out, RS coming, but 65k for a GT4 is a good price, I was tempted as love the looks but to put it bluntly the slower 987 simply drives better and is more engaging on road, but I am on Porsche ladder so to speak now so if it moves up a lot and a GT4 or GT3 softens then I can just move into one of those costing little to change.
Soldato
We are dropping HSE models on some for example with stuff like Matrix Lights and Head Up display. Indeed my next car I cant order as feature rich but atleast I now have a wider choice of colours on IPACE 
. What it's going do to customer deliveries and resulting revenue is quite frightening to the whole industry including the supplier base. I think this also coincides with end of the ICE era and cars with real hearts and souls that people want to keep long terms. Usual supply and demand, just supercharged.
. What it's going do to customer deliveries and resulting revenue is quite frightening to the whole industry including the supplier base. I think this also coincides with end of the ICE era and cars with real hearts and souls that people want to keep long terms. Usual supply and demand, just supercharged.
Soldato
Can you imagine working in volume planning for a major OEM at this time, when the supply of semi-conductors isnt known from one day to the next? 
The core problem is the car industry historically pay very little for their chip orders so chipmakers prioritise more profitable productions lines like smart phones, game consoles & GPU's!
It would be far easier all round if car makers started to pay over the odds for their chips & pass those costs onto the consumer than not being able to build new vehicles to meet demand! Same overall difference used prices increasing vs new cars costing a little more! Most of us would rather have a new vehicle than pay thousands more for used which will eventually depreciate even harder once prices normalise!
Also, in EU zones especially they like to ensure they come under the EU emission targets for the year so this means some performance vehicles get pushed back production wise until end of the quarter to appear on the next quarters emission production list.
It would be far easier all round if car makers started to pay over the odds for their chips & pass those costs onto the consumer than not being able to build new vehicles to meet demand! Same overall difference used prices increasing vs new cars costing a little more! Most of us would rather have a new vehicle than pay thousands more for used which will eventually depreciate even harder once prices normalise!
Also, in EU zones especially they like to ensure they come under the EU emission targets for the year so this means some performance vehicles get pushed back production wise until end of the quarter to appear on the next quarters emission production list.
Soldato
Not strictly true, the orders were significantly reduced because of COVID factory production and customer demand, now we see a return of demand the ramping up the orders (regardless of price) has just put those at the back of the queue whilst the consumer products ramped up for the increase in home working, home staying and furlough entertainment with some people having more spending power - theres now a bigger backlog. Coupled with the factory plant fire reducing global output. Bit of a perfect storm.
Soldato
Can you imagine working in volume planning for a major OEM at this time, when the supply of semi-conductors isnt known from one day to the next?
I design high frequency circuit boards and when close to completing a design, I pass an advance parts list to procurement to scope out long lead items. Plenty of logic / control semi conductors are on 50+ week lead times at the moment. Even things like capacitors are long lead times
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We are dropping HSE models on some for example with stuff like Matrix Lights and Head Up display. Indeed my next car I cant order as feature rich but atleast I now have a wider choice of colours on IPACE
Thats what I said earlier in the year with the forecasts of a massive boom this year, that the demand may well be there but production/supply wont be. If you have sold every car you can make this year then thats your final sales revenue. It doesnt matter that demand was there to sell double.
And if the number you can make is restricted due to covid/supply issues then overall your sales are going to be down.
Same in construction. We are having a good year with turnover back to pre covid levels but we honestly could have done 50% more this year with the amount of work we have turned down due to not having the staff or being unable to get the materials in reasonable time.
One client picked out their floor tiles from a small list of tiles which were shown as being in stock at the suppliers. When they came to place the order they were informed that an American guy had bought the entire European stock of that tile and had them shipped to the states and they would have to pick again or wait until 2022 for the tiles they wanted.
What is it?
Soldato
Try ordering a car at the end of 2020 and being told Q4 2022 at the earliest
BMW M135i
Try ordering a car at the end of 2020 and being told Q4 2022 at the earliest
Oh man that makes me feel like I'm moaning about nothing!
Still, I am furious! Especially as we found out we are due a baby in March. I'm going to have a nice clean car for the total of 10 days before a baby ruins it. That's assuming it even comes then!
Associate
Mum ordered her one at the end of April with a late July/early August date. She finally picked it up today, one part was delaying it. So I can imagine its not got any better then that.
Caporegime
My V70 has gone from £250 on WBAC to £450, a hell of a jump percentage wise, my former boss has been offered £110k for his Moonstone blue RS500 Sierra Cosworth (he paid £18k new in 1987!) the used - desirable - car market has gone nuts, but, it looks like a very large bubble that’s going to go pop and probably very soon.
I won’t benefit, plenty will, once the supply chain gets it’s crap together it’ll all fall back in line and quickly, if your in a position to profit and sit on it, I think that’s the way to go….
I just wish my Volvo was an RS500 or CSL, alas, it isn’t…..
I won’t benefit, plenty will, once the supply chain gets it’s crap together it’ll all fall back in line and quickly, if your in a position to profit and sit on it, I think that’s the way to go….
I just wish my Volvo was an RS500 or CSL, alas, it isn’t…..