I can imagine the new Nvidia GTX5XX/AMD 69XX reference coolers being used for quite some time. This isn't because it's cheaper, but because of the efficiency of their cooling. Both manufacturers have moved on to vapor chamber cooling which is pretty damn effective at cooling these cards.
For example, look at the GTX580 versus the GTX480. Both consume 360-370w at load, but the GTX580 is a good 20 degrees (!) below that of the GTX480 (at load), and the GTX480 came with it's own heatpipe array sticking out the top of the card case.
Considering how well the current coolers fare, I'd think that for a while it'd only be the high end versions of each card that would get a custom cooler. More budget oriented third party coolers could quite possibly be worse than the reference coolers
For example, look at the GTX580 versus the GTX480. Both consume 360-370w at load, but the GTX580 is a good 20 degrees (!) below that of the GTX480 (at load), and the GTX480 came with it's own heatpipe array sticking out the top of the card case.
Considering how well the current coolers fare, I'd think that for a while it'd only be the high end versions of each card that would get a custom cooler. More budget oriented third party coolers could quite possibly be worse than the reference coolers


