NK vs USA

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Diddums

Caporegime
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With Trump's "armada" plastered all over the papers (well, a tiny portion of the Metro, that little goody-two-shoes paper we use as floor decorations here in London) as moving in to NK to teach the Evil Little Man™ a lesson, it seems the stakes could be heating up. Un has proven that he is committed to his nuclear program and word on the dictated streets is that he's now capable of attacking the east coast of the mighty Trump Island, something Trump can't have. Obviously.

So what do we reckon, is this going to be a thing or is the Evil Little Man™ going to wind his neck in and behave?

I'm a bit torn on this one tbh, I do suspect that shorty's intentions are more domestic than international (to let his people know that NK is best K) but I think if Trump pushes his buttons he might pop and start a fireworks display.

I dunno. It's early. I'm bored. Let's have a chat.
 
Just heard Trump saying that he's got China to stop all coal going into NK and if that doesn't work then he will sort it out. So who knows, hope he is wise in the head and not living in some movie fantasy land. Will probably all fizzle out, Un will go into hiding for a few weeks etc.
 
If he's a nutter with his back against the wall, he will invade S Korea. Or nuke the **** out of it.

You decide which leader :p
 
Does NK have a big enough standing army to fight a full scale war? Who would align themselves with NK if they did?

Its all well and good ramming an ICBM equipped with a nuclear warhead into the east coast of America but then you have to be able to defend against any sort of counter attack.

And what would NKs end game be? Nuke them and invade? Nuke them for ***** and giggles?

I cant see it to be honest ( albeit with limited knowledge of the Evil Little Man™ country ).
 
They might have the numbers for a full scale war with south korea, but anything like that kicks off then we'll see a rematch of the last scrap in the 50's, only this time i doubt china is going to risk its economy by stepping in.

There needs to be a trigger though, at the minute i think both sides are sitting there wishing the other would go away
 
USA will never attack. NK would just level Seoul. Their ICBM technology is poor, but their artillery is basic and effective - and all pointed at Seoul.
 
No one will stand by NK anymore. China has nothing to gain by standing with NK in an actual war. Years ago they would have because of the political climate but now they are a different country which benefits massively from trading with the western powers it would snub years ago. NK has gone from a country who was a close ally that shared devastating losses with them in a war fighting off the west, to a money sinkhole with little benefit and an annoying whine every time the regime leader disputes a border.

NK doesn't want war with the US, just with SK which it wants to claim. Do they have the ability to claim SK if everyone else stayed out of it?

Nope, the north cant survive anything but a small scale conflict without food and supplies delivered externally. The south will have a hard time wiping them out on their own due to the terrain, a problem we saw in the last K. war. The north's strength lies in its ridiculous arsenal of soviet artillery and air defences which has received some modernisation over the last few decades. It is estimated that they do not have the range to lay waste to central Seoul but i imagine it poses a problem for SK if they wish to deploy troops by ground.

https://www.stratfor.com/sites/defa...s/new-north-korea-artillery.png?itok=itw_27xq

Both will suffer heavy loses and in the end it will be NK reduced to rubble with the top half of SK. So i guess if tis just NK vs SK its SK that will have a bitter last laugh but hardly a conflict anyone would welcome.

With the US and other outside powers?

With outside powers involved, SK will still see blood due to artillery and though NK will still be rubble, it would be an expensive stupid move by the US to invade. China wont actively participate but will likely send food and non military aid. This is because they shared a similar strife once and have built a relationship on the hard times they faced together and they know that if they did not, they risk a huge wave of NK refugees looking to escape war and war wrecked land will come their way.
 
mattyg said:
Surely if NK were to invade SK then all NK troops would get over the border......realise they are now free and defect.
Click to expand...

Some would defect but remember that he holds all relatives responsible for the actions of defectors. He has just moved something like 600,000 people out the capital so that only those considered true loyalists remain. Those people will likely end up in work camps or in the army in the best case scenario.

http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=3032113

The loyalty hierarchy system is what has allowed the regime to keep control over his people in such dire conditions. It is one thing to want to try for a better life when you have nothing to lose but your own, it is another when the only people you have left are thrown in the pit with you after success or failure.
 
That carrier group on it's own is more than enough to deal with NK.

They aren't much of a threat now, but sooner or later they will be able to hit the US with a missile. They want to do something about it now while NK is still unable to threaten the wider world.
 
Lil Kim had better be having some pretty nifty behind the scenes chats to maintain face with his people, yet still convince governments he's not going to start bombing things.

Anything could happen with the Donald and his yeehaw republicans in charge of such military force. There's a small chance this could escalate into something very significant.
 
I wouldn't underestimate NK air defences.

It is easy for us to do so when we look at how stunted their development is, Their people have been starved of food, their scientists starved of technology and information, their industries starved of raw resources but one thing NK does have is a decent defence (if outdated) from geography and decades of investment. Winning against NK (not just bombing to hell and leaving) and removing the regime completely would require considerable dedication in the air as well as the ground (inconvenient given the terrain and troop numbers which to be honest, have been training there all their lives).

Yeah the US can overwhelm them with aircraft but it will be costly and will come with losses. Their effective air defence does not come from their broken ex soviet planes and illegally purchased american crafts but their main military investments over the years (anti-aircraft guns, radar and surface to air missiles). Obviously NK will lose eventually but it wont be a clean and easy win. It will be expensive, costly and prolonged with the mountain ranges and tunnel networks on their side which cant be sniffed at in a war of this kind.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/mil...-air-war-over-korea-would-look-like-15293363/
 
I think something will kick off this month for sure. NK will launch a ICBM or test a nuke to celebrate the party founding on the 15th (i think) of this month. If its a launch the yanks will use THAAD to knock it out or maybe a few cruise missles if its a nuclear test.

What happens after that god knows. NK will do something provocative on its celebration days otherwise it'll be seen as losing face.

Hence why theres a carrier fleet and destroyers heading towards NK as we speak. When do they arrive on the penninsula? I'm betting between today and tomorrow.
 
Avenged7Fold said:
I wouldn't underestimate NK air defences.

It is easy for us to do so when we look at how stunted their development is, Their people have been starved of food, their scientists starved of technology and information, their industries starved of raw resources but one thing NK does have is a decent defence (if outdated) from geography and decades of investment. Winning against NK (not just bombing to hell and leaving) and removing the regime completely would require considerable dedication in the air as well as the ground (inconvenient given the terrain and troop numbers which to be honest, have been training there all their lives).

Yeah the US can overwhelm them with aircraft but it will be costly and will come with losses. Their effective air defence does not come from their broken ex soviet planes and illegally purchased american crafts but their main military investments over the years (anti-aircraft guns, radar and surface to air missiles). Obviously NK will lose eventually but it wont be a clean and easy win. It will be expensive, costly and prolonged with the mountain ranges and tunnel networks on their side which cant be sniffed at in a war of this kind.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/mil...-air-war-over-korea-would-look-like-15293363/
Click to expand...

do you not think they would do what the iraquis did and turn off all the radars to save thier own skins?
 
Avenged, your article basically states that they can't do diddly against high altitude stealth. Which America has...has lots of infact.
 
Tefal said:
do you not think they would do what the iraquis did and turn off all the radars to save thier own skins?
Click to expand...

Maybe. I would say NK peoples loyalty rests on a knife edge and the moment they believe things will fall is the moment that NK crumbles.

Dis86 said:
Avenged, your article basically states that they can't do diddly against high altitude stealth. Which America has...has lots of infact.
Click to expand...

Like i said, i dont doubt that NK will lose, just that it will, be very expensive and there will be heavy casualties from NK and SK (very few American casualties). While high altitude stealth may be effective, really stamping out the regime requires more than constant blitzing which is pretty expensive. I dont claim to know much about war but i cant imagine the tunnel networks and underground bases they have will be easy to get rid of.

My point is that removing Un's regime cleanly is optimistic and doing it cheaply is impossible. I dont think there is too much to gain from doing it now and that they are not a threat at the moment simply because they dont have much to gain from initiating anything.

hardkore said:
I think something will kick off this month for sure. NK will launch a ICBM or test a nuke to celebrate the party founding on the 15th (i think) of this month.
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The multi-stage satellite rocket they used is the only thing with range and not something they want to rely on. The second Un fires anything like that with intent, is the second that China turns its back on NK and everyone knows it. Un is not so foolish to throw his country to ruin over a celebratory, superficial display of strength. I think Un has a lot on his plate, including keeping China sweet.
 
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