Not more eggs....

dowie

dowie

dowie

Caporegime
Joined
29 Jan 2008
Posts
59,088
In light of the previous two threads how about this one:

You're playing roulette in a casino, ignoring the green(zero), the numbers are coloured red and black. You've decided to keep playing until one of two combinations appear. Which is the more likely combination to come up first in the course of playing:

Red, Red, Black

Or

Red, Black, Black
 
There's no relationship between each individual spin on a roulette wheel so at each turn the chance of getting Red or Black remains 1/2.

So the probability of each of those sets of results happening in that order is 1/8 (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2). The same probability for any of the 8 possible combinations of 3 spins.
 
Question isn't spin three times... question is which is more likely to appear first, you keep playing/spinning until one of the two combinations. For example you could have red, black, red, black... then one of the combinations...

Is it 50/50 as some are claiming or do some combinations have a higher chance than others of appearing first?
 
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What if I told you that the fact the spins are independent can still allow for some combinations to be more likely to occur first than the other.
 
dowie said:
Question isn't spin three times... question is which is more likely to appear first, you keep playing/spinning until one of the two combinations. For example you could have red, black, red, black... then one of the combinations...

Is it 50/50 as some are claiming or do some combinations have a higher chance than others of appearing first?
Click to expand...

Its 1/8 for any combination.

You have a 1 in 8 chance of spinning Red, Red, Black.
You have a 1 in 8 chance of spinning Red, Black, Black.

The the chance of each of them happening first is the same, but its not 50/50 as there are 6 other possible combinations of 3 spins too, so there's a 6/8 (or 75%) chance that neither of those those two combinations happens.
 
I'm not saying spin three times what is the probability if this combination. I'm saying which of those two combinations is likely to appear first if you keep playing until one of them appears.

The probability of the two possibilities must total 1 so 1/8 for each is clearly wrong. If you think they're equally likely then it is 1/2, but that is also wrong, one is more likely than the other.
 
dowie said:
I'm not saying spin three times what is the probability if this combination. I'm saying which of those two combinations is likely to appear first if you keep playing until one of them appears.

The probability of the two possibilities must total 1 so 1/8 for each is clearly wrong. If you think they're equally likely then it is 1/2, but that is also wrong, one is more likely than the other.
Click to expand...

Your wrong.
 
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