• Competitor rules

    Please remember that any mention of competitors, hinting at competitors or offering to provide details of competitors will result in an account suspension. The full rules can be found under the 'Terms and Rules' link in the bottom right corner of your screen. Just don't mention competitors in any way, shape or form and you'll be OK.

Nvidia 270/290 in deep trouble (GT200 based GX2 dead as well)

ACESHIGH

ACESHIGH

ACESHIGH

Soldato
Joined
17 Aug 2005
Posts
4,297
Im tired and maybe this is posted already but i haven't seen it....


IT LOOKS LIKE Nvidia's run of bad luck is continuing. The latest word is that the GT200b is in for another respin, that would be the third. This means the 270 and 290 are effectively delayed until February, and the GX2 part is quite dead.

If you recall, the original plan was to have them out for the Nehalem launch on the 17th, an ambitious goal considering the timing on the last respin. Since that spin failed, it is a moot point, but word is that NV will put something out on the market.

Since this is (was?) a simple optical shrink, there are going to be no new features, so that leaves better power, higher clocks, and lower prices as an option. Since most if not all GT200 based parts are selling at little if any profit – we hear 260s are under water, 280s barely above – don't look for price being the point the wheel-o-semicoductor-planning stops on.

That leaves power and speed. Unfortunately, the shrink is a mess and not working out well at all, so neither of those features panned out. Where does that leave us? With a shrunken GT200 that doesn't really perform any better or worse than the current part, but gives NV a little better breathing room. That is the current best case.

With that in mind, NV is probably going to slipstream 55nm parts into the mix, likely without much fanfare. Anything more would gut the eventual 270/290 launch, if they can get the shrink done right, and that is a big if right now. The other tactic, and don't put it past them, is to launch an upclocked 55nm part to try and gain back the halo.

It will be interesting if the company tries this, it can't make them in commercial quantities, so it would be a press + 200 for Newegg only part. The downside would be to eat Christmas sales, the upside would be to stroke their collective egos. Given the egos involved, this is a tough one to call from the peanut gallery.

That brings us to the GX2/dual card. Suppliers tell us that it is quite dead. We thought it was an impossible thing to pull off when we first analysed the part, and it looks like several universal physical constants agreed with us. Thermodynamics is a bitch.

So in the end, NV has what it has now, PR stunts aside, until February. If it hot lots a few wafers, and don't look for TSMC to be doing it favors right now, that would put it at September 1 + 20 weeks.

Throw in a little time for testing, not that the concept seems to matter much at NV, and you are into February.

No wonder ATI cards are on allocation
Click to expand...

http://www.theinquirer.net/gb/inquirer/news/2008/11/04/nvidia-270-290-deep-trouble
 
I don't exactly trust the Inquirer, especially the poorly written carp above.
That said, nvidia havent exactly been doing that well since GT200.
Interesting anyway... Lets see what happens.
 
It would not be surprising really to be honest, I'm pretty sure their mentality when they released the 2xx was that ATi were no longer going to compete with them at the high end, and could get away with 12-18 month product lifecycles, and ATi had hit them like a bolt out of the blue. One thing that is true in the article is the PR Stunts, like the so called "Big Bang" drivers, paintball demoes etc which are enough to make any fanboy froth at the lips. That's the one thing that ATi lack, but they've let the price do the talking.

It's cyclical, one beats the other for a bit, then the other wins for a bit. Hopefully both companies have learnt valuable lessons now
 
It is a testimony in itself that we don't dismiss that artcle out of hand where as we once would have done with nvidia and shows how much they have slipped. That said i can't see nvidia allowing an article like that to continue if there wasn't some truth in it as lets be honest it says nothing good about nvidia whatsoever and nvidia have a large enough legal team to have complete bs taken down if it could negatively impact them which that article certainly does.

I never believed that nvidia had this magic gpu up their sleeve that many assumed they must have with all the time they had in the lead to develop and i think nvidia got lazy got very complacent and got royally caught out by Ati and are now struggling to respond.
 
The GTX 280 will be die shrunk and will be the same but cheaper, how is that a bad thing? It's a lot better than the 4870 (not as good as dual GPU 4870x2)
 
By Charlie Demerjian
Click to expand...

We need a giant rolling eye smiley stat!
rolleyes-big.gif
 
I think the biggest thing wrong with nvidias current gpu's was the expectation that many of their user's had and the fact that after everyone had released their new gpu's nvidia didn't have the clear cut lead they had enjoyed for the last two years. No one saw the 4xxx seies coming in terms of how much they would compete and in some cases beat nvidia and that was the first dent in confidence some bad handling of other basic things has contined to rock confidence in nvidia. Any mishandling of the revisions is not going to look good and will look worse then it might be simply because of all the other things that people will take into account.
 
The Asgard said:
There is nothing wrong with the current G200 series chips apart from them being too expensive to make which effects profit.
Click to expand...

I think nVidia could do with a driver team overhaul but apart from that I largely agree with you.

It's just that they got caught at the start with the 4870 - and when they eventually lowered the prices so that the 260 was competitive with the 4870, they then had to make a GTX260-216 part to compete with the 1GB 4870, which had put ATi back in front at that price point.

As ATi found out a couple of years back, it's very difficult to play catch-up.
 
Its probably easier to play catch up than it is to create a part faster than anything else out there, at least you know what you are up against playing catch up.
 
jonnylaris said:
Its probably easier to play catch up than it is to create a part faster than anything else out there, at least you know what you are up against playing catch up.
Click to expand...

Yeah but unless your product sells you're not going to make much money.

Try AMD as an example.
 
I'm hoping this is just more crap from The Inquirer as I've been holding out for these cards before making a purchase.

I'm still going to wait until the end of the month to make a decision but sods law says I bet the 260 prices go up in that time..
 
they will be faster probably cooler but not fast enough. for those people who held of and did not buy 260/280 probably be advantage
 
thats true as above to it all depends on the price and that extra performance if they right might as well sell 4870 and upgrade 270 will see
 
Maybe part of the problem was that the 8800gtx was such a massive jump from the 7900gtx but the 200 series doesnt appear to as revolutionary, it certainly wont have the longevity of the 8800gtx.
 
come on - ati were in exactly this position from the 2900 until the 48 series was launched

its good that they are getting some market domination

the 8800gtx kind of put ati to bed for a bit - but now its nvidias turn to struggle

swings and roundabouts i guess
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom