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Nvidia Roadmaps Turn Up

Soldato
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http://www.semiaccurate.com/2009/09/01/nvidia-roadmaps-turn/

Put your Waders on.

September 1, 2009

THE BATTLE FOR GPU SUPREMACY this coming winter solstice holiday season is looking like Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA) is bringing a dull butter knife and a blindfold to a howitzer fight. At least that is the impression its latest round of roadmaps is giving.

The roadmaps recently shown to SemiAccurate confirm the bleak outlook we have been talking about recently. There are two of them each dated mid-August, or about two weeks ago. One covers Q3/2009 through Q2/2010 and the other has Holiday 2009 and Spring 2010 selling season coverage.

NV quarterly roadmap

One years worth of code names

The information covered is pretty easy to interpret. The D10 generation is a 55nm part, but Nvidia is up to its usual sleazy naming tricks, even to its NDA'd partners. It is claiming that renamed G9x parts are the D10 generation even though they are not. If it can't be honest with itself, what chance does it have to be honest to customers? Don't answer that. There is literally nothing new here.

D11 is the code name for the 40nm shrinks of, well, we aren't really sure anymore. They could be G9x derivatives, or they could be G200 based, but since they are legitimate shrinks, we'll give them the new generational name.

Take note that the D11 parts are only in the bottom three categories, Mainstream A and B, along with Performance A. As we said a few days ago, this is nothing more than a cynical renaming borne from a gross inability to make new parts. It also is quite emblematic of Nvidia's inability to deliver even a G92 class part on 40nm. To bang that drum once again, if Nvidia has huge problems yielding ~100mm^2 and smaller dies on TSMC 40nm, what chance does it have of producing a >500mm^2 part? For the math averse, the answer is less than 1/25th the chance.

The most interesting item is D12U or GT300. The U stands for Ultra, the highest end variant. Nvidia is claiming that will be out in Q1, but that forecast is really dependent on what it gets back from the fab later this week or early next. If its hot lots need a respin, this Q1/10 date is suddenly going to seem hopelessly optimistic.

On the original roadmaps shown to SemiAccurate, all of the lower 2 classes had the D10 to D11 transition happening on the Q4 to Q1 boundary, that is, January 1. The Enthusiast segment has the D10U to D12U transition happening after that - the bar of the graph clearly goes well into Q1. This is either fudging or a CES paper launch, followed by availability sometime later.

NV seasonal roadmap

Product names by season

More interesting bits can be found on the second page, the seasonal roadmap. ATI will have DX11 parts on sale in Q3/2009, which would be this month. For Q3 and Q4, all that Nvidia has to offer is the GTX280 with the RAM doubled to 1792MB. It will be pricing a 480mm^2 part with a hugely complex PCB against a 181mm^2 part with far fewer layers. GTX280 won't be able to compete with Cypress at all, and Juniper can obliterate it on price/performance. Dull butter knife indeed.

The rest of the stack is known, with the only changes to note being the GT230 in Performance A getting double the memory. Until the new year, it is simply more of the same.

Remember when Jen-Hsun said that Nvidia was producing more 40nm wafers than anyone else? Remember when he said that it would be mostly 40nm by the end of the year? Anyone believe him? Where is the SEC when we need it? Where are the non-gullible analysts?

Pain really starts for Nvidia in 2010. Q1 brings D12U/GT300, if it can make them, likely in very short supply unless it does something radical to fix the yield toilet it is swimming in. Assuming it gets that out, and it performs better than we hear, then Nvidia is going to be shipping a 530mm^2+ part in very short supply against a low 3xxmm^2 part in plentiful supply.

To give you an idea of how confident it is of this plan working out, the roadmaps for the Spring 2010 season still list the GTX280 with 1792MB as the lead card. If GT300 doesn't work perfectly and it needs to do a second spin, Nvidia is literally out of the high end graphics game. If that does work out, it gets to promote a card that it can't make at the expense of the products it can produce. Great choices there.

The meat of the market, Performance B, is still served by the venerable G92. Ouch. No, really. Nvidia's inability to make a part is getting painful to watch at this point. Juniper will kill this part at a lower cost.

The bottom three, the GT330/320/310 chips, are simply shrunk versions of their 230/220/210 predecessors. Nvidia is listing the performance gains from the 230 to the 330 as +20%, 220 to 320 as +60%, and 210 to 310 as 30%. For Performance B and Enthusiast, there are no gains listed because the parts don't change at all.

Some of those might look like decent numbers, but ATI has a new generation top to bottom, and should be at about +100%. Game over, top to bottom.

In the end, the Q4 and Q1 roadmaps are what we have been saying all along, devoid of any hope. What we were not expecting was the Q2/2010 roadmaps to be as bleak as they are now. If Nvidia isn't sandbagging on Q2, it is in deep deep trouble.

At this point, it is going to have to compete on price, and only in the low end at that. A single Cypress should be about on par with a GTX295, and Cypress will cost less than a GTX285 to produce. How long can Nvidia sell at a loss to make up volume? We will know by the end of Q1/2010. Until then, all it seems to have is spin, bluster, and the usual demos full of promise but lacking purchasable silicon.S|A

source & diagrams
 
Er... look who the author is.

Having said that, it wouldn't surprise me if it's true. Looks like Q1/10 for GT300, which was expected anyway.
 
RUN YOU FOOLS!

Before the Nvidia fanbois show up

Also the this artical does now allow for the fanboi market or
operation rebrand XXX + gt gtx gs led flashy light!
 
They have to get the gt300 ready in numbers for the end of January, but going of that, it looks that Nvidia arn't even sure about this happening.

Obama may need to rush another bail out plan through congress.

Why damage the company more with the renaming thing again ? Why not just save the money, sit tight and come back with new cards ?
 
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D12U is the 512SP GT300... theres also 384 and 480SP models banded about but I think that was when they thought they were on target for going head to head with the 57xx launch... (and keeping the ultra "in the wings"). Launch date is roughly March 2010.

Most of the other models are die shrunk 200 series that may or may not include "DX10.1" its looking like the mainstream parts will merely include a "sub-set" of the DX11 feature set as nVidia has nothing in this area otherwise. Not to mention the G92 still rearing its semi ugly head.

So basically that tells us nothing we didn't already know.
 
They have to get the gt300 ready in numbers for the end of January, but going of that, it looks that Nvidia arn't even sure about this happening.

Unless nVidia is blowing a smoke screen to let ATI get complacent - that is really not going to happen.
 
Unless nVidia is blowing a smoke screen to let ATI get complacent - that is really not going to happen.

The only way that is going to be effective is that people don't think that its going to happen.

If it does all the better as it puts more pressure on the pricing from both camps sooner rather than later.
 
I'd be delighted to see nVidia shipping quantities of the GT300 by Jan or even sooner... but I really don't see that happening unless nVidia has been playing a very very subtle game to get ATI off guard and that doesn't seem likely.
 
I'm struggling to see the point of releasing the gt 300 if its that late. ATI could refresh the whole range by March-April.

Unless the jump in performance is something the likes has never been seen before (unlikely) the gt300 could get L4D'd.
 
I'm struggling to see the point of releasing the gt 300 if its that late. ATI could refresh the whole range by March-April.

Unless the jump in performance is something the likes has never been seen before (unlikely) the gt300 could get L4D'd.

Well if its come out in ultra form - it will automatically be more than twice as fast as the 285GTX at the same clock speed as it has 512 SP and a healthy increase in ROPs, etc. Keep in mind that the SPs on it are automatically ~30% faster than those on the 200 series due to the changes in architecture and with the inclusion of MIMD it can potentially hit 2-4x the performance in single precision and even bigger gains in double precision.

So performance wise the jump is likely to be massive... price wise... is also likely to be massive :S

Interestingly enough it looks like they are planning to take what would have been the GT212 up against the 5870 - with a 60-70% performance increase over the current 200 series and possibly an extension to the DX10 feature set on the core - tho it still won't be DX11. Looks like that will be something of a monster too in power consumption and price tho... looks like it'll be another case of go ATI to get 70-80% of the performance for a lot less money.
 
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ATI could instantly hit back with whole range of faster and cheaper DX11 cards when more DX11 games are on the shelves and a shed load of users are running Win 7.

Trying to prop up the high end with faster DX10 cards at this point will be the work of a retarded person. 80% faster DX10 will still = the same as it does now, nothing, as its dead and will be even more dead come March. Unless its A DX10.1 card, that might put up a fight and keep them hanging in the mid range for a while.
 
Yeah you'd have to be an idiot to buy the 212... wildly speculating but if they do make it "DX10.1" which still hasn't been confirmed - it won't be DX10.1 like on ATI cards but extensions to the feature set to make it "DX11" compatible in the short term... prolly by agressively working the way its meant to be played platform to get developers to include vendor specific render paths for features not supported under vanilla DX10.
 
Even if ATI refresh their cards, DX11 won't truley kick in until games start using it. We will still be looking at DX9/10 performance. Could Nvidia improve in DX9/10 performance but sit back until 4xx for their DX11 card. Is the 3xx definatly gonna be DX11?
 
GT300 is deff. DX11.

The only way nVidia is gonna get away with the 200 refresh going against the 58xx series is if they massively slash the prices... which I don't see happening as teh cards are basically massively souped up versions of whats out now... and if they did they'd have to make it up on the 300 series... which would push up already high prices.
 
No developer in there right mind is going to take that and run with it.

-Nvidia-
"Right Guys, remember all that DX10 is a waste time now because we think ATI can do it better talk ?"

-Dev-
Yes ?

-Nvidia-
Well take all that and throw it away, just throw it away... never happened.. just a bad dream.

Dev
OK...

-Nvidia-
Well we've got this DX10 card and we're going to build a DX10.1 but not a proper spec dx10.1 card out of it and we wont you to write DX11 games for this.

-Dev-
ARE YOU ******** NUTS !

Some one help me throw this guy out the window.


By the time the bugs have been ironed out we would be buying DX12 cards and Intel's hostile take over would have been completed.
 
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GT300 is deff. DX11.

The only way nVidia is gonna get away with the 200 refresh going against the 58xx series is if they massively slash the prices... which I don't see happening as teh cards are basically massively souped up versions of whats out now... and if they did they'd have to make it up on the 300 series... which would push up already high prices.

Well as I said its only DX9/10 performance for the forseeable future until games use DX11. If the 5 series is only 1.6 times as fast surely a beefed up 2 series should be able to compete with that including the price hike.
 
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