Nvidia's next refresh...

aoaaron · 11 Oct 2018 at 22:26

I saw a lot of people predicting the 20xx series as just a stop-gap (which it is performance wise) and that 7nm or whatever next gen of cards will release next year. Do you guys really believe that?

Its October and the 2080ti won't be freely available probably until late October, at least here in the UK. We still haven't seen the 2070 or 2060. I feel like the 20xx series might not even be fully released until near the end of this year.

Do you guys still believe that a refresh won't happen for that long? I'm personally quite sceptical and starting to think that maybe we will be stuck with the overpriced 2080ti as the reigning king for longer than we'd like to think.

bru · 11 Oct 2018 at 22:29

7nm next year, but this time next year I reckon.
The 20xx series will run its course over next year and then we will get the 21xx series, if anyone at Nvidia remembers how to count that is.

bru · 11 Oct 2018 at 22:30

opps double post.

DarrenM343 · 11 Oct 2018 at 23:07

Prob end of next year, earliest. I reckon will just tie it in with their next gen so maybe 2020, I don't see a Turing 7nm refresh personally but probably shorter time to next architecture than we've had this time. Could spring surprise like a Titan Turing only being on 7nm. I doubt 7nm going to be cheap initially

Legend · 11 Oct 2018 at 23:18

I think it will mostly depend on how 20xx does over the next year... and this is going to be tied in to game content that actually utilises RTX features. If we don't see a slew of titles taking advantage of this, then it's going to be a much longer wait for the next cards. There just won't be any point releasing a new line of GPUs if there's no content to take advantage of them... Nvidia won't be able to pull that one again, not when people have paid four figure sums for GPUs they STILL can't use properly!

It will be interesting to see how things progress... we all know how much controversy surrounds the supposed performance of even the 2080Ti and ray tracing... 1080p barely managing 60FPS for example... if that is the reality, Nvidia will have a tough job selling 7nm cards on the same promise they will have completely failed to have delivered on with the 2080/2080Ti (assuming they don't actually live up to the hype).

D.P. · 12 Oct 2018 at 07:56

bru said:
7nm next year, but this time next year I reckon.
The 20xx series will run its course over next year and then we will get the 21xx series, if anyone at Nvidia remembers how to count that is.

Yet, early H2 2019 for the 7nm replacements.
That is a 1 year life span. Back in the days there was a new GPU every 6 to 9 months.

Early next year you will see the 7nm successor to Volta, that will be the first hint of what to expect going forwards. 6 months later 7nm Geforce.

Randomface74 · 12 Oct 2018 at 08:17

This little excursion into fairy land will end and they'll have to release something cheaper for those of us in the real world.

DarrenM343 · 12 Oct 2018 at 08:20

Something I found interesting while reading the other day is that RT will be making it into mobile GPU;s too.

aoaaron · 12 Oct 2018 at 08:53

Legend said:
I think it will mostly depend on how 20xx does over the next year... and this is going to be tied in to game content that actually utilises RTX features. If we don't see a slew of titles taking advantage of this, then it's going to be a much longer wait for the next cards. There just won't be any point releasing a new line of GPUs if there's no content to take advantage of them... Nvidia won't be able to pull that one again, not when people have paid four figure sums for GPUs they STILL can't use properly!

It will be interesting to see how things progress... we all know how much controversy surrounds the supposed performance of even the 2080Ti and ray tracing... 1080p barely managing 60FPS for example... if that is the reality, Nvidia will have a tough job selling 7nm cards on the same promise they will have completely failed to have delivered on with the 2080/2080Ti (assuming they don't actually live up to the hype).

I think 4K 60fps ray tracing is far away but if Nvidia release a card which has 2080ti performance or better At the 2080 price point people will buy it.

The fact 4K 60fps is so close gives Nvidia a big advantage where they can have small margins of performance improvement which give a much better experience.

Paladine · 12 Oct 2018 at 08:59

People are buying the crap out of this gem - that is why there is such high delays. no way Nvidia will release another card next year - they have waaaaaay too much stock from 10 series on the shelves still - it doesn't make sense for them to flood the market with a 3rd generation as well.

kevman · 12 Oct 2018 at 09:16

I think that if nvidia still have top spot then they won't release anything next year. It will give more time to refine 7nm process and maximise profits of next gen. They won't be in any rush

HRL · 12 Oct 2018 at 10:34

Can’t understand why Nvidia will rush to bring out 7nm unless AMD suddenly become competitive at the higher end, and nobody can see that at the moment.

Unless AMD do have something special up their sleeves I can’t see the next Nvidia gen coming any sooner than 2020.

LePhuronn · 12 Oct 2018 at 10:45

RTX 21xx will come out on TSMC 7nm+ around Q3 2020:

it's going to take at least a year to get decent RT and DLSS support in games to prove that the crazy price for this new tech is worth it
AMD will not have a top-end or halo product to compete for the foreseeable future, so there's no need to push out another generation right now
Turing needs some hefty power refinements, so wait until TSMC really get the goods going with a refined 7nm process
Q3 2020 is AMD's Arcturus: there's going to be a lot of hype and anticipation because it's the first post-GCN architecture, but regardless of if it works or not, Nvidia will **** on AMD's chips by dropping their new, proper and actually impressive RTX cards.

andybird123 · 12 Oct 2018 at 11:05

AMD may be ahead on 7nm, but to be honest I can't even see them beating the 2080ti if all they are doing is another GCN refresh.

LePhuronn · 12 Oct 2018 at 11:43

andybird123 said:
AMD may be ahead on 7nm, but to be honest I can't even see them beating the 2080ti if all they are doing is another GCN refresh.

They're not. Well, they ARE because Navi is the last GCN arch, but Navi was never billed as top-end arch, and Arcturus is entirely new. That's why I said there will be a lot of hype and attention come Q3 2020. Given Vega's number crunching power, it's entirely possible we'll see dedicated RT and AI cores on Arcturus too.

And if that does happen, I full expect Nvidia to rain on AMD's parade if they get anywhere near RTX performance in RT.

Poneros · 12 Oct 2018 at 11:53

I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed when in 2 years the 7nm cards are all out and they realise it's just moving the needle 20-30% up for each card. Considering what's happening it would be almost a miracle if you'd actually GET that extra performance and keep the prices today, i.e. RTX 2080 = £700 -> RTX 3080 = 2080 ti performance at £800.

You know, I was excited about Navi 10, GTX 1080 performance for supposedly $300, but now I think about it and realise: Hang on a sec, Vega 56 launched for $399 more than a year ago. The supposed Navi 10 which is estimated to be "around" a 1080 in performance is supposed to be around $300. That means that in 3 years you'd get essentially the same performance for $100 less? That's not great at all!

Man, if I could find a cheap X99 board I'd just go mGPU and be done with it. It's insane what cheap GPUs you can find used and sometimes still with warranty. Bah!

Wrinkly · 12 Oct 2018 at 12:16

LePhuronn said:
I full expect Nvidia to rain on AMD's parade if they get anywhere near RTX performance in RT.

I'm wondering if Nvidia have DXR support issues, hence RTX wrapper.

Legend · 12 Oct 2018 at 12:46

aoaaron said:
I think 4K 60fps ray tracing is far away but if Nvidia release a card which has 2080ti performance or better At the 2080 price point people will buy it.

The fact 4K 60fps is so close gives Nvidia a big advantage where they can have small margins of performance improvement which give a much better experience.

We won't be seeing price/performance get to those levels... probably ever. Those days are over. Only if AMD (or Intel) can deliver some serious competition at the top end and we see a similar situation to what's happened with CPU's... but even there, it's not like Intel have slashed prices in response to Ryzen! Competition certainly encourages further technological development though, so that's a big positive, and therefore, in theory, better value for money.

As long as Nvidia can get away with charging obscene amounts of money and people willingly hand it over, that's the new status quo. It's all very well saying that if everyone refused to buy the cards they'd be forced to drop prices, but that's not going to happen... when has it ever? I know 20xx hasn't got off to the best start, but let's face it, when the 1080Ti is EOA (it practically is) and you can't buy one anymore, Turing is still going to be the only game in town for top end GPU performance. Buy hey, there's always consoles!

melmac · 12 Oct 2018 at 13:05

Paladine said:
People are buying the crap out of this gem - that is why there is such high delays. no way Nvidia will release another card next year - they have waaaaaay too much stock from 10 series on the shelves still - it doesn't make sense for them to flood the market with a 3rd generation as well.

Buying the crap out of this gem? The delays are due to yields not demand because if people really wanted a 2080ti there are models in stock. The only people who seem to buying now are those that got fed up waiting for the model they pre-ordered, cancelled and bought something in stock. Look at the 2080, they are available everywhere. What's going to happen when the 2070 launches?

I can easily see a big push by Nvidia to clear out the Pascal stocks when the 2070 drops. Then after Christmas drop the prices of the Turing cards.

Legend · 12 Oct 2018 at 13:15

melmac said:
Buying the crap out of this gem? The delays are due to yields not demand because if people really wanted a 2080ti there are models in stock. The only people who seem to buying now are those that got fed up waiting for the model they pre-ordered, cancelled and bought something in stock. Look at the 2080, they are available everywhere. What's going to happen when the 2070 launches?

I can easily see a big push by Nvidia to clear out the Pascal stocks when the 2070 drops. Then after Christmas drop the prices of the Turing cards.

I don't see many people refusing to buy outright though... digging their heels in the sand or going AMD. They are just buying up the cheap 1080Ti deals instead, or going second hand. Once Pascal is gone and you can't buy it anymore, Turing sales will pick up regardless of whether they drop prices or not. They will at some point of course, but it won't be much. We'll probably get some free games first. Price drops will happen eventually, but it's not like the 2080 is suddenly going to become a £650 GPU and the 1080Ti go under £1K in a matter of months. People can keep dreaming if they think that.