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*** Official Bitcoin Price Discussion Thread ***

Discussion in 'Crypto Currency & Mining' started by morguk, Dec 28, 2016.

  1. Telecaster

    Mobster

    Joined: Jun 17, 2012

    Posts: 4,640

    I would guess that there's still too many miners hanging on for the market to go up yet, I would say it needs to go back to before the 2017 surge before it can rally. How long have the previous down turns lasted?

    It doesn't seem like it's been long enough for it to drop out of the public consciousness yet, we need to create that break so as to really stoke up the next phase of FOMO. If it's still too fresh in the mind of the public then they're less likely to jump back in IMO.
     
  2. DarrenM343

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 19, 2008

    Posts: 4,002

    Last edited: Dec 4, 2018
  3. Minusorange

    Mobster

    Joined: Nov 25, 2005

    Posts: 2,574

    Usually 18 to 24 months, so prediction by end of 2019 falls in line with the usual pattern repetition
     
  4. 413x

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jan 13, 2010

    Posts: 15,224

    Location: Stamford

    Those newspapers websites dedicated to crypto are clutching at good news straws
     
  5. Armageus

    Don

    Joined: May 19, 2012

    Posts: 8,967

    Location: Spalding, Lincolnshire

    Soon be Chinese New year :D
     
  6. Diddums

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 24, 2012

    Posts: 15,952

    Location: London

    I learned very quickly that they are a load of crap. They'll see a cleaner at an embassy buy a newspaper with bitcoin, headline: GOVERNMENT OF WHATEVER ENDORSES BITCOIN.

    I automatically disregard any dedicated crypto site nowadays.
     
  7. 200sols

    Hitman

    Joined: Jan 14, 2018

    Posts: 789

    Location: Hampshire

    Its all based on sentiment, nothing has really changed since 20k last year. If the FOMO machine starts rolling again it will hit new highs, its just a question of when. 2019 seems too early, but anything can happen.
     
  8. DarrenM343

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 19, 2008

    Posts: 4,002

    I'd say a lot has changed since last year. Regulatory talk for one thing. Not going to even go into the Tether angle :).
    It's hype too which affects the sentiment but hype is hard for many to believe atm after this aftermath. I mean so many of the "experts" have got it all wrong. The only bullish case I can think of over the next year is the institutional case. 2019 seems early indeed for a new high.
    I managed a few successful trades since the bottom was in , and it was mostly based off of predicting when the manipulation would hit the market :).
    Another angle to look at that not many are covering is questioning what the last two bull runs had in common? Dodgy exchanges. Is there a connection?
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2018 at 12:51 PM
  9. 413x

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jan 13, 2010

    Posts: 15,224

    Location: Stamford

    Pretty close to my stop loss now. Think it will trigger this week
     
  10. Telecaster

    Mobster

    Joined: Jun 17, 2012

    Posts: 4,640

    Just looked back at the thread exactly 12 months ago for a bit of FOMO nostalgia fix, $20k guys, $20k....
     
  11. 413x

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jan 13, 2010

    Posts: 15,224

    Location: Stamford

    Heading to that new yearly low

    Its a pretty consistent downward zigzag isn't it.
    Bumps a new low.
    Dead cat bounce
    Repeat
     
  12. Kaka

    Wise Guy

    Joined: May 11, 2004

    Posts: 1,217

    It is a pretty clear pattern and traders must be making some decent profit.
     
  13. DarrenM343

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 19, 2008

    Posts: 4,002

    It's pump and dump. Have a look at Tether when BTC spiked this morning in a 15 min timeframe. It dips and then rises closer to where it started. A few possible scenario's but most likely IMO is that they pumped the marked and now left others holding the bags.
    In fact firstly Tether rose as the crypto market was probably pushed lower to stop out a load of long positions. Then Tether drops as the market is pumped to trigger short covering and pull in long positions. By the time the momentum is gone, they're mostly out again. It may happen again if there's an opportunity to make the market look more bullish than it is.
    This stuff is why ETF's wont happen. The exchanges can stop pump and dumps if they want to but of course atm the exchanges are guilty of it.
     
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2018 at 9:14 AM
  14. Telecaster

    Mobster

    Joined: Jun 17, 2012

    Posts: 4,640

    I've just read that some of the larger investment firms are still hoovering up BTC like nobodies business, one of which now holds 1% of all BTC.

    Seems to me like they're preparing a position for the next Bull run whenever it may come, maybe it is all just a bubble but maybe what we've seen so far (including the ATH of last year) is just the early stages of it and not the actual bubble. I think this last run piqued the interest of the big players and they want to get in on it before it bursts so I'm quietly confident we'll see a return to the madness at some point, I just hope I'm holding the right coins to make it pay.
     
  15. Bigpops

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 3,805

    Location: Sheffield, UK

    Yep, that's Grayscale. Currently they have about 203,000 BTC, which is more than 1% of the circulating supply. If they get another 17K BTC (currently about $60.5M), they'll have 1% of the total supply.

    There's a saying (I heard Crypto daily say it, but it's not his):
    "When retail investors miss the train, they miss the train. When institutional investors miss the train, they pull it back into the station."
     
  16. 413x

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jan 13, 2010

    Posts: 15,224

    Location: Stamford

    Yet another yearly low.
    That 1k year end is seeming more and more realistic
     
  17. DarrenM343

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 19, 2008

    Posts: 4,002

    Would be interesting to know what Grayscale have made so far and what their end game is. While retail want moon, big investors might only need say $10k to make a whopping profit and start selling. They could still get it badly wrong however.

    Interesting thought on missing trains :). Institutions buying from the little people (sorry for the expression :)) making them all rich just is not the way the world rolls. Pushing as many of them out as possible and buying cheaply however is. It's definitely something worth bearing in mind.
    Overall however I think the institutions have nothing to do with this bear market and I really don't think they're as interested as the crypto pushes make people believe. FOr sure some will be tho. Grayscale if I remember correctly specialise in crypto but I don't think big investment (non-crypto) are buying up cheaply but who knows? Many will want to buy as close to a sure thing as possible. That is not the case here atm
     
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2018 at 7:30 PM
  18. Kaka

    Wise Guy

    Joined: May 11, 2004

    Posts: 1,217

    Digital assets aren't going anywhere in my opinion, particularly ones like BTC or XRP. As soon as more regulated exchanges appear you'll see far more interest from institutions.
     
  19. Bigpops

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 3,805

    Location: Sheffield, UK

    Someone is buying, and someone is selling. So, who's selling, and who's buying?

    If you assume that all the sellers are selling for a profit, then the sellers are people who bought in September 2017, at the latest, or before August 2017 to be selling today. So they've held their BTC for well over a year.

    You have to assume buyers are also doing so to make a profit, either in the short term, or the long term. People buying in for short term profits are likely to be traders, and more specifically traders with access to trading software that can react to the market quickly.
    So who else is buying?
     
  20. Jokester

    Don

    Joined: Aug 7, 2003

    Posts: 37,514

    Location: Aberdeenshire

    Plenty of people could be selling to cut their losses.