Predict 360 sales ending September

KNiVES

KNiVES

KNiVES

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With the imminent release of Bioshock (which has now proven it's pretty much going to stomp on everything else this year) and Halo 3, a lot of consoles are going to be shoved off the shelves. Back in 06, when Gears of War came out in November, the 360 sold 4.4 million units in the fourth quarter of the year, when normally it sells about a million each quarter. Gears of War had roughly 1.5-2 million preorders.

Compare this to the time period between August 25 and September 25. Bioshock and Halo 3 are two of the most anticipated games to come in a long time, with the former having a massive audience of System Shock fans who no longer own high end PC systems but have a 360. Then you look at Halo 3, which has a confirmed 4 million preorders in USA Gamestop stores alone, and an uncomfirmed 10 million preorders worldwide alone. The scope of these two games combined is certainly more vast than that of Gears of War.

So. How many units will shift by the end of September? I guess 2 million by end of September and 4-5 million by the end of the year making 16 million total (assisted by GTA4 sales).
 
Really is a tough one to predict tbh.
Is that Halo 3 4 million pre orders confirmed? I think 10 million world wide is a lot of nonsense tbh, that would be 6 million in Europe pretty much, as Japan will not bother with it again. Think that is just hype tbh.
Will Bioshock sell a lot of systems on its own merrit?
Has the reliability issues with the 360 caused more damage than we think?

I honestly don't know. 2 million by the end of september i think it a bit of a tall order, have they sold 2 million this year? I think they will sell just a little over a million by the end of september.
As for the end of the year, it all depends on if the PS3 gets some titles out and maybe a Euro Price reduction, and what the Wii pulls out of its hat. What with Mario Kart, Metroid and Super Mario Galaxy coming out also.

It is not something i would like to put money on either way. It really could be blistering or it could just plod along still. But add in a possible price reduction in time for christmas, after they have milked the initial wave of Halo 3, it is a tough question.
 
There will be an American price reduction of 50 dollars in August.
http://www.dailytech.com/Report+Xbox+360+to+Shed+50+in+August/article8187.htm

The 4 million Halo 3 preorders is well documented, there are several articles on the net on it, one being http://xboxevolved.e-mpire.com/article/Halo_3/3837.html

My reasoning for the higher than usual sales predictions also takes into account the fact that the PS3's price drop propasal by Sony has already came and gone in the form of the package containing an extra controller and two games. History shows that price drops have never accompanied such packagin/clearance deals within two-three months. The common knowledge of GTAIV having more available content on the 360 as well as it being the cheaper console will also have the 360 being a 'pull' console rather than Sony being a 'push console'. It is safe to assume that Sony has no strategy and answer for the August-September period.

As for 'just hype', that is totally the whole point of it ;) How else would units shift? On the hype front, we have http://www.xbox360fanboy.com/2007/07/30/halo-3-marketing-invades-bk-7-11-pontiac-and-more/

The Halo 3 "Game Fuel" Mountain Dew is expected to be available sometime in August and will be purchasable in cans, bottles, and special aluminum bottles at 7-11 stores. Speaking of which, 7-11 stores will be featuring three Halo 3 Slurpee cups as well as bags of Doritos chips which will offer a chance to win a voice cameo in Halo Wars. Pontiac is also jumping in on the Halo 3 marketing fun by co-branding the game with their Pontiac G6 in commercials, events and in a sweepstakes where they'll be giving away a Halo 3 themed Pontiac G6. Halo 3 will also be a sponsor of the Projekt Revolution tour featuring Linkin Park and My Chemical Romance. Finally, Burger King will be offering Halo 3 themed meals starting in September and selling what they call "survival kits".
Click to expand...

Other promotions for Halo 3 here
 
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This is very hard to predict and I am gonna wait until I see how sales are in the USA after next weeks $50 price cut, then I think I can take a better calculated guesstimate. :D
 
I highly doubt those figures are true. If they are true, two thirds of all Xbox 360 owners in the US are pre-ordering Halo 3 and pre-ordering from one store.

It also means that every Xbox 360 owner outside the US is pre-ordering two copies of the game. Dubious, perhaps? :p

Check out the pre-order thread here on OCuk. It may be a small sample, but does it seem like everyone in pre-ordering Halo 3? Not to me.

(Source for US/world-wide Xbox 360 sales: Video Game Chartz)
 
I think the price cut may boost the sales a bit.

yeah i have seen that article but iirc it has never been confirmed by gamestop has it? I know i don't believe the 10million world wide pre orders for Halo 3, considering they have barely shifted over that in consoles.

I just don't know really, it is something i have long wondered about is the people who will buy an xbox purely for Halo 3, would they not already have an xbox?

I genuinly don't know lol It really is a tough one to call.
 
Shamikebab said:
Its possible that people who dont have a 360 are pre-ordering the game, then picking up a 360 at release.
Click to expand...

Only an idiot would do that, as there are bound to be Halo 3 bundles.
 
I think these two games will shift a few consoles, but my guess is a lot of people buying these titles will already own the console so the console sales figures will not increase by that greater a amount.
 
Tunney said:
Check out the pre-order thread here on OCuk. It may be a small sample, but does it seem like everyone in pre-ordering Halo 3? Not to me.
Click to expand...

Halo 3 is mentioned more than any other game in that thread :confused:

What gets me down is the lack of awareness for Bioshock - all the fuss has gone to games like CoD and Halo, games which don't really detract from the formula, whereas Bioshock has. Hopefully the reviews will put user anticipation up a notch.
 
KNiVES said:
Halo 3 is mentioned more than any other game in that thread :confused:
Click to expand...

Yes, but it's not mentioned by everyone. If 10 million people are pre-ordering Halo 3 and there's 10 million Xbox 360s around the world, you'd expect every single person who owns one would be pre-ordering it. That's obviously not the case.

And I agree with JUMPURS, who would pre-order a game for a console that they don't yet own? Surely they'd pre-order it at the point at which they bought the console. The numbers just don't add up.
 
Cant say much for September but now that all the consoles are out and the release excitment has died down i cant see why the X360 wont be, by far the biggest selling console this autumn/winter.

Why?
The launch lineup is the strongest ive ever seen, im being serious. Particulary considering its got the Exclusive GTA content, Halo 3, PGR 4, Bio Shock, and loads more not to mention all the EA yearly updates, love em or hate em they sell in the bucket loads and "Live" is probably still the best way to play these games.

Price Drop
Its going to happen prior to Halo 3 surely?
HD-DVD drive also to get Movie Bundle/Price Drop?
Some people will want the HDMI model and fancy an upgrade.

Whatever the sales are currently for the X360 id say add a further 6 million plus by years end.
 
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KNiVES said:
What gets me down is the lack of awareness for Bioshock - all the fuss has gone to games like CoD and Halo, games which don't really detract from the formula, whereas Bioshock has. Hopefully the reviews will put user anticipation up a notch.
Click to expand...

See that's why i dont think it will shift many consoles, outside the sort of serious gamer types, it isn't hugely hyped. I also think Mass Effect falls into this catagory. Sure i will be buying them, but they are not hyped up as much as they possibly should be.
 
Mr Latte said:
Price Drop
Its going to happen prior to Halo 3 surely?
HD-DVD drive also to get Movie Bundle/Price Drop?
Click to expand...

Toys R Us (US) and Wallmart have both been showing $50 360 price drops from 08/08 so it looks like it's happening...

imagejpeg0copyvf2.jpg


In the US the HD-DVD drive has just recieved a $20 price cut and now comes with 5 free discs.
 
Yes im aware of that but that means maybe a £25-£30 price cut here at most. Thats not an awfull lot to warrent a massive surge of interest, besides many retaillers offer bundle deals which is where the console sells most.

Particulary by offering the latest hyped game with one or two others. GOW as a prime example was bundle boxed like crazy with some great offer deals.

Games sell consoles and im sure most people reading this forum could easily pick 6 games theyd like in the Autumn/Winter lineup, maybe not all X360 exclusives but still available on the system. This winter offers some amazing games no matter what your preference is.
 
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