Probability question

WillyNelson · 17 Apr 2013 at 09:13

Does a 1/5 chance have the same probability of a 5/25 chance? For example, if you have 5 raffle tickets out of 25 total tickets, is your chance of winning the same as if you had 1 ticket of 5?

I think it is because it's only 1 event, but part of me is not so sure.

WillyNelson · 17 Apr 2013 at 09:21

[FnG]magnolia;24132157 said:
Probably.

Probability of 1 or <1..?

Thanks folks

WillyNelson · 17 Apr 2013 at 09:40

I meant a probability of 1 that they're probably the same.

WillyNelson · 17 Apr 2013 at 10:19

Zefan said:

Indeed. I deal with profitability not probability.

It's a long time since I did a Statistics GCSE and I just wanted to check. I was correct after all.

WillyNelson · 17 Apr 2013 at 10:39

Martytoon said:
But do you not have to consider the probability of profitability?

It's unlikely.

WillyNelson · 17 Apr 2013 at 11:03

[FnG]magnolia;24132655 said:
Probably.

Certainly.

I deal with events that have already happened.

WillyNelson · 17 Apr 2013 at 12:42

inogen said:
Yeah cos doing the maths on stuff that's happened is different than doing the maths on stuff that hasn't happened yet.

When dealing with probablility, which we are, then yes they are different. Insofar as events which have happened are certainties and probability doesn't come into it.

WillyNelson · 17 Apr 2013 at 16:31

inogen said:
It's future, present, or past tense, a mixture of all, some or none is irrelevant.

1/5 = 5/25

It's maths. You're confused.

What if I asked you, "I bought 5 raffle tickets yesterday, there were a total of 25 tickets, what was the probability that I won?". Would you be able to solve that?

Stop trolling. I said as much in the OP, I was just checking there wasn't something with the multiplication of chances that I'd overlooked. My past events comment stems from Martytoon's question...

Martytoon said:
But do you not have to consider the probability of profitability?

I replied that it is unlikley as I deal with things that have already happened
(cost/revenue), probability doesn't come into it.

Would you say to me "I paid £1 for a raffle ticket yesterday and won £5. What's the probability that I made a profit?" No, because it's a stupidly pointless question. Can you understand that...?