Quiz (maybe poll mods?)

seems convoluted - can someone ask chatgpt ?


brain hurts - initial response
Mercenary Keyboard Warrior said:
what is the chance you will be correct?
Click to expand...
by correct - you mean the percentage your a/b/c/d guess corresponds to, matches the chance it is correct

I'd go for 0 chance, the average chance would be 40% but that is not one of the answers
 
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Mercenary Keyboard Warrior said:
If you choose to answer this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?

A) 25%
B) 50%
C) 60%
D) 25%

car on a treadmill ;)
Click to expand...

It can’t be A) or D), each being 25%, because there is a 50% chance of picking the answer of 25% at random. So that doesn’t sync up.

It can’t be B), being 50%, because there is only a 25% chance of picking that. So that doesn’t sync up.

It can’t be C), being 60%, because there is only a 25% chance of picking that. So that doesn’t sync up.

So it’s 0%, Shirley?
 
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www.quora.com

If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct? (A) 25% (B) 50% (C) 60% (D) 25%

Answer (1 of 245): I've answered this question once before. This question brings up the three levels of logic. First level logic addresses the obvious situation without self-reference. There are four answers, one is correct, so the odds of picking the correct one at random are 1 in 4. That's 25%...
www.quora.com www.quora.com

thats a lot of BS for my head to bother to even read tonight.
 
One of the answers is correct but we don't know which one. It also doesn't matter what the original question was.

The question is asking what the odds of success are if we pick an answer at random.

The four options are 25%, 25%, 50%, 60%. Obviously one answer appears twice.

So there is a 2 in 4 chance the answer is 25%.
A 1 in 4 chance it is 50%.
And a 1 in 4 chance it is 60%.

If we randomly select an answer there is a 50% chance we pick 25%, and a 25% chance of each of the other two.

So the probability the answer is 25% multiplied by the probability of us choosing that answer, for each of the terms, is as follows:

P = 2/4 * 50% + 1/4 * 25% + 1/4 * 25%

P = 0.25 + 0.625 + 0.625 = 0.375 or 37.5%

So the answer to the question, "what is the chance you will be correct", I think is 37.5%.

And I didn't Google this btw.
 
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Maybe a way to actually answer this as anything apart from 0% is to assume the answers are irrelevant to the question and are correct answers in their own right to a separate question that youre picking one of. The you have 4 answers with a 1/4 chance of being picked. However, two are identical so the potential for these to be picked it higher than the others but we don't know if it's correct or not. I think this means that the probability if they are correct is a third and if they are incorrect is one sixth but feel free to correct my maths.

Otherwise, if the answers are relevant 50% is correct because there is 25% chance of picking 1 of the 4 and there are two 25% options, but there is a 25% chance of picking 50% so it becomes a paradox as the answer then becomes 25% so you'd be incorrect. 60% is incorrect in all cases. So that means it's 0% because you can't pick the right percentage. This is also not factoring in the answering randomly where if truly random it could be a non specified option, for example 'Stegosaurus'.
 
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