The Pound Exchange Rate

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Thompson_NCL said:
I'm not sure if you're being serious here or not.

When people make predictions like this, they rarely use soft language like "might" or "might not" because then why bother saying it at all? Anything might happen. By saying it will happen, I saying I believe this is what will happen. It may not, but based on my observations I believe that is what will happen.

So no, it's not moronic to claim it will happen on the basis it may or may not happen. If you do not understand this, I would suggest you are being moronic.
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Will implies a definite. Banks don't release research notes with definite stances, it leaves them open to litigation. And then you tell us to relax - so we should all relax based upon your observations?

GBP prediction language:

Goldman Sachs: Could
Credit Agricole: Could
Soc Gen: Expect
Danske: Expect
UBS: Should
ING: Sees
Deutsche: Believes
 
cheesyboy said:
In case anyone doesn't realise yet, we're now at the real beginning of the bit where everything goes to ****.

As an actual Brexit becomes more and more certain, and the Tories press blindly ahead with what is looking more and more like a Hard-Brexit, we start to see the real effects of our stupidity.

It's genuinely rather worrying.
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We're going through the challenging period that most everyone expected to occur following Brexit, but the economy is pretty robust right now and there's no reason to think the doom times are upon us.

The EU is also about to enter a turbulent year with elections in the Netherlands likely to deliver an anti-EU government, followed by elections in France and Germany where nationalists will make gains.

Whatever problems Britain is facing currently, it will become a relative safe haven in the new year as despite the concerns over Brexit, there'll be bigger concerns about the existential threats in the EU and Chinese economies.
 
Thompson_NCL said:
We're going through the challenging period that most everyone expected to occur following Brexit, but the economy is pretty robust right now and there's no reason to think the doom times are upon us.

The EU is also about to enter a turbulent year with elections in the Netherlands likely to deliver an anti-EU government, followed by elections in France and Germany where nationalists will make gains.

Whatever problems Britain is facing currently, it will become a relative safe haven in the new year as despite the concerns over Brexit, there'll be bigger concerns about the existential threats in the EU and Chinese economies.
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I genuinely hope things turn out well. I didn't want Brexit at all, but if it's happening, then I hope it works out really well.

With being no expert on the issues, though, I turn to people who are. And none of them give me any hope :(
 
n111ck said:
The 6% is being investigated and the larger drop happened months ago - panicking every day for the next 5 months seems slightly ridiculous.
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again you are wrong, look at the charts, 6% whether blip or not aside Sterling has been sliiping further even after the initial big dip in June

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37582150

it's still 6c down from where it closed after the referendum result and overall is showing trending down being 17c lower than what it was at the start of May. Now take into consideration this is before anything has actually started. Businesses that deal primarily in USD that are UK based are getting smashed and that will end up having an impact on local workforce.

You can try and dress this up with your taking back control ********, but the bottom line is this is not a good thing short, mid or long term for an awful lot of workers, employers and businesses in this country.
 
cheesyboy said:
I genuinely hope things turn out well. I didn't want Brexit at all, but if it's happening, then I hope it works out really well.
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I'm taking this approach too. I don't want it to happen, but if it does then I want it to be as successful as possible.
 
Its going to fluctuate until at least A50 - if you want to panic and freak out thats up to you but what value is there in that given you have zero influence on it?

Interestingly one theory is that automated algorithms that scan social media may be the cause of the drop - basically remainers losing their **** over every little EU threat, thanks Remainers!
 
toshj said:
Will implies a definite. Banks don't release research notes with definite stances, it leaves them open to litigation. And then you tell us to relax - so we should all relax based upon your observations?

GBP prediction language:

Goldman Sachs: Could
Credit Agricole: Could
Soc Gen: Expect
Danske: Expect
UBS: Should
ING: Sees
Deutsche: Believes
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Banks tend to be more conservative than individuals for the very reason you've cited: they can be litigated against. I am not going to be litigated against if I get things wrong, so I can afford to be more liberal in my views.

As I've said, there are signs of issues in the Euro area and China that will help Sterling rise over the next six months. It also looks likely we'll see a tightening of monetary policy which will further push Sterling northwards.
 
n111ck said:
Its going to fluctuate until at least A50 - if you want to panic and freak out thats up to you but what value is there in that given you have zero influence on it?

Interestingly one theory is that automated algorithms that scan social media may be the cause of the drop - basically remainers losing their **** over every little EU threat, thanks Remainers!
Click to expand...

Another theory is that the exchange rate is controlled by pink fluffy unicorns.
 
HSBC says it expects the pound to drop to $1.10 and parity against the euro by the end of next year as traders increasingly believe the government will pursue a "hard" Brexit.

"Brexit, whether one likes it or not, is a political decision, one we have to respect," said David Bloom, the bank's global head of FX research. "The currency is now the de facto official opposition to the government's policies."
 
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