Variable change?

Soldato
Joined
16 Oct 2007
Posts
7,501
Location
UK
Ok, something that has bothered me since i watched the new film "21" last night...

Basically, they're talking about Variable Change, and they gave an example i can't get my pretty little head around.

Gameshow.

3 doors.
behind 2 doors, is a goat.
behind 1 of the doors, is a new car.

33.3% chance of guessing the right door.
For example, i'll guess door 1.

But then the Gameshow host opens door number 3, it's a goat..
comes back to me and asks if i'm sure i want to keep door number 1, or change now to door number 2.

According to the film, the chances are now 66.6%?






help
 
it's not because it's more likely you chose a goat to begin with, so you should always change your choice at the second stage
 
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