When are you going fully electric?

[jpaul]

would she like it better in green : "Polestar 2 EV" S17 - EP1 Season Premier!
the hatch/boot family flexibility's impressive too - but, just heard the reversing sound .

....

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating and $880.00 price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) noting that as demand and production levels pick up, there are reasons to expect a shortfall in battery supply that could vary widely by region. But don't just take his word for it, there is commentary from Tesla, Ford and GM, highlighting the risk. While he does not offer an investment conclusion based on this issue, he highlighted the concern to make investors aware of the potential problem.
....

The analyst stated "Our Asia battery team forecasts nearly a 3-fold increase in global battery cell capacity to 1.2 TWh by 2025 vs. just over 0.4 TWh today. At the same time, the global autos team forecasts nearly a 6-fold increase in global EV sales to approx. 12mm units by 2025 vs. just over 2 million units in 2020. We forecast global EV volume to grow nearly 2x faster than the growth in global battery .... "

 

[sparkymark75]

I kind of agree and disagree, it depends how the vehicle is being bought/rented and how long it may be kept for. Since sadly I'd say a huge majority of (brand new) car purchases take no account of the TCO, only how much the upfront payment/deposit is then any monthly payments/loan costs associated. There is such a lack of education about running a BEV in terms of cost (based on 90% home charging, 10.8k of every 12k miles), and the significant saving from servicing, and then ultimately understanding what the residuals might be in this fast development paced market, while trying to account for increasing demand as well.

I agree there is a premium, but not as much as assumed once all the factors above are taken into consideration and in some cases it may end up being cheaper than the equivalent ICE model over a longer term. There are still ways to go, and the semi-artificial higher prices don't help, but neither does the terrible information that is swung about from both sides.

I was considering leasing an EV but even those are more than expected. I thought leases were designed to cover the depreciation of the car. EVs don't seem to depreciate as much as ICE cars yet the leases are still expensive. Are suppliers just gouging folk?

 

[b0rn2sk8]

I was considering leasing an EV but even those are more than expected. I thought leases were designed to cover the depreciation of the car. EVs don't seem to depreciate as much as ICE cars yet the leases are still expensive. Are suppliers just gouging folk?

Sort of.

There are some unknowns around used values, particularly on new models but there is only so long that excuse can hold up and the finance company will always want to ‘win’.

That said as more models come to market I’d expect them to depreciate in line with ICE cars but we are still years away from that. We are still some way away from the tipping point for new cars, let alone used.

Lease costs are generally high across the board at the moment.

 

[SDK^]

I was considering leasing an EV but even those are more than expected. I thought leases were designed to cover the depreciation of the car. EVs don't seem to depreciate as much as ICE cars yet the leases are still expensive. Are suppliers just gouging folk?

There are little to no discounts on most of the ‘in demand’ EV’s.
Yet you can walk into a BMW dealership and get £20k+ off some their cars.

 

[jpaul]

ergh no BEV's currently depreciate more -

RVs of BEVs are below those of petrol cars in all the big five European markets, except Italy. Even here, however, the gap has narrowed to BEVs only having a 0.7 percentage point (pp) advantage over petrol cars, compared to 4.6 pp in March 2020. Furthermore, the new purchase incentives for BEVs, introduced by the Italian government on 1 January 2021, will reduce their used prices and this minor advantage is therefore expected to turn negative imminently.

In the other major European markets, the RV disadvantage of BEVs compared to petrol cars has widened since March 2020. The greatest divergence has occurred in Germany, where the gap has widened by just under 4 pp and stood at 10 pp in January 2021.
...
All governments should look into providing incentives to encourage used-BEV ownership, but these do not need to be straightforward purchase incentives. Lower energy costs for charging BEVs and visible expansion of the charging network would also be powerful signals.

 

[Greebo]

Sort of.

There are some unknowns around used values, particularly on new models but there is only so long that excuse can hold up and the finance company will always want to ‘win’.

That said as more models come to market I’d expect them to depreciate in line with ICE cars but we are still years away from that. We are still some way away from the tipping point for new cars, let alone used.

Lease costs are generally high across the board at the moment.

They are but I think its just down to unknowns. Ive seen many leases for EV cars totallying 75% of the RRP. You dont see any ICE cars with that assumed depreciation. They will be making a killing when the lease company sell them for 40-50% after 3 years.

Also scary how long you need to order a new car atm. Got told today that if a order my Merc today then I can expect delivery in late November!!!!

 

[Journey]

Figures of new car registrations are out for April, BEV still doing well at 9,152 (305 per day!), and PHEV also performing well with 9,600 registrations. Year-to-date still has BEV up over 108% since 2020, at 40,931, so that should put the total year 2021 at ~130k+ BEV registrations, total market share remains at 7.2% for the year so far, but could increase as many more models are released over the coming months, and pre-orders start to land for the September plates.

 

[McPhee]

And they cost thousands to replace, every 3 years or so (by which time they're mostly spent again).

Tell me about it! I'm currently saving for replacement battery #3!

Oh wait... no, I'm still on the original battery. With over 85% of the original capacity. After over 7 years.

 

[jpaul]

there will be an analogue of clocking soon #batterytamper ? - is resetting the battery capacity illegal.

 

[McPhee]

Sort of.

There are some unknowns around used values, particularly on new models but there is only so long that excuse can hold up and the finance company will always want to ‘win’.

That said as more models come to market I’d expect them to depreciate in line with ICE cars but we are still years away from that. We are still some way away from the tipping point for new cars, let alone used.

Lease costs are generally high across the board at the moment.

I reckon finance companies are expecting used prices to drop. They just aren't sure when. Looking at the used market right now, asking prices for Leafs (24 and 30) are down maybe 20% on four years ago. Downward pressure from improved, newer models hasn't really been felt at the bottom of the market yet (and may not be for a few years still). But it will kick in at some point.

It's been like this for a few years now. Three year PCPs on £25k EVs with a £11k GMFV, then three years on the car is actually worth £18k-£20k because the bottom of the market is still holding fairly strong.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

there will be an analogue of clocking soon #batterytamper ? - is resetting the battery capacity illegal.

You’d have to rewrite the BMS or the cars wider firmware to report an incorrect capacity. I guess it’s possible.

The only equivalent I’ve seen so far is where people have fiddled with Tesla’s to unlock functionality they didn’t pay for but it gets reset when the car updates again. They may have patched the exploit now too.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

Well I took the Insight to work today, lovely steady 40mile trip @ 74mpg. Then managed to get the keys for a car for the weekend with around 10 times the power...






Bit of an assault of the senses with anything different but actually its really impressive, and better than I remember the P85D I drove the autopilot is very clever but I think I need more time to work it out. Daughter however already has worked out dog mode and shown far more interest than any other car I've took home. Says it all really! Loaded with pretty much every option, FSD, air, premium connectivity, carbon interior and actually a semblance of a centre console

Turns in neater than IPACE, I think the low profile tyres and lower ride height with air pay dividends but the Jaguar definitely communicate what's going on better and inside is another level, that said you cant dismiss how slick that tablet is in the Tesla, Spotify integration and of course the maps. Powertrain feels buttery smooth, I'm going to turn off the dynamic sound in the IPACE as that seems to skew the smooth EV sensation to compare between the two. Rolling on the throttle at speed is quite something how quick is gathers pace and a short burst at lower speed I hadn't really braces my neck for the surge

Gonna go try some superchargers and stuff over the weekend.

 

[m4rmite]

Well I took the Insight to work today, lovely steady 40mile trip @ 74mpg. Then managed to get the keys for a car for the weekend with around 10 times the power...






Bit of an assault of the senses with anything different but actually its really impressive, and better than I remember the P85D I drove the autopilot is very clever but I think I need more time to work it out. Daughter however already has worked out dog mode and shown far more interest than any other car I've took home. Says it all really! Loaded with pretty much every option, FSD, air, premium connectivity, carbon interior and actually a semblance of a centre console

Turns in neater than IPACE, I think the low profile tyres and lower ride height with air pay dividends but the Jaguar definitely communicate what's going on better and inside is another level, that said you cant dismiss how slick that tablet is in the Tesla, Spotify integration and of course the maps. Powertrain feels buttery smooth, I'm going to turn off the dynamic sound in the IPACE as that seems to skew the smooth EV sensation to compare between the two. Rolling on the throttle at speed is quite something how quick is gathers pace and a short burst at lower speed I hadn't really braces my neck for the surge

Gonna go try some superchargers and stuff over the weekend.

I see your neighbour beat you to going emission free, albeit a cosy coupe.

Nice wheels btw.

 

[VincentHanna]

Polestar pushed out an update this week and withdrew it because it was bricking cars! - the issue was with installation, not the actual update though.

I have it installed and luckily my car is fine.

 

[SDK^]

Polestar pushed out an update this week and withdrew it because it was bricking cars! - the issue was with installation, not the actual update though.

I have it installed and luckily my car is fine.

I had the install notification earlier today but decided to wait until this evening to install it when I didn't need to do any more trips. Then I got 'the update has been cancelled until later message' and figured it had been pulled.

 

[Basher]

I had the install notification earlier today but decided to wait until this evening to install it when I didn't need to do any more trips. Then I got 'the update has been cancelled until later message' and figured it had been pulled.

I installed mine yesterday and all seems to work. Very basic functionality though TBH.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

I’ve had 7 so far... #justsayin

 

[PCM2]

Well I took the Insight to work today, lovely steady 40mile trip @ 74mpg. Then managed to get the keys for a car for the weekend with around 10 times the power...it of an assault of the senses with anything different but actually its really impressive, and better than I remember the P85D I drove the autopilot is very clever but I think I need more time to work it out. Daughter however already has worked out dog mode and shown far more interest than any other car I've took home. Says it all really! Loaded with pretty much every option, FSD, air, premium connectivity, carbon interior and actually a semblance of a centre console

Turns in neater than IPACE, I think the low profile tyres and lower ride height with air pay dividends but the Jaguar definitely communicate what's going on better and inside is another level, that said you cant dismiss how slick that tablet is in the Tesla, Spotify integration and of course the maps. Powertrain feels buttery smooth, I'm going to turn off the dynamic sound in the IPACE as that seems to skew the smooth EV sensation to compare between the two. Rolling on the throttle at speed is quite something how quick is gathers pace and a short burst at lower speed I hadn't really braces my neck for the surge

Gonna go try some superchargers and stuff over the weekend.

Have you been a passenger in that P100D yet? When you're not in control of the power, it's quite something.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

Nah not yet.

 

[VincentHanna]

Did my first proper long journey in the Polestar 2 today, 270 miles.

Didnt actually feel massively different to an ICE journey, even with the stops. Left with 100% battery, and found a miller & carter with a BP pulse charger and charged for 41 minutes from 50-90% whilst eating a nice steak and then the holiday home we are staying at has a 7kw charger anyway.