When are you going fully electric?

WJA96 said:
At some point the car hire companies just won't have any ICE cars to rent to folks. Like 2036 unless you want to rent a year-old hybrid-ICE car, you'll be having electric rental cars or nothing. So the electric cars are just going to have to get better.

And if you look at where BEVs were in 2011, compared to what is available now, 2031 should be fine. Tesla are already talking about 500+ miles of range for their top 2022 models so it will be there for many more of us by 2025 and as charging moves to 800V from 400V the charging times will almost halve. Batteries are getting better all the time and we really shouldn't be projecting 2021 on the future because there is some form of (r)evolution in technology almost weekly at the moment.
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The issue isn’t with the cars, it’s with the whole concept of ‘car sharing’ (e.g rent per journey) which is the other agenda people are pushing alongside EVs. It’s often linked to EVs because they are the future but the drive train is almost irrelevant.
 
Greebo said:
He think he was more referring to the view that most people wont own their own car in the future and there will just be strategic car parks full of auto electric cars and you just hire a car for a journey you are making rather than having all the costs of car ownership. Book one on your app and it drives to where you are to pick you up. Certainly for a lot of people who don't do a lot of miles each year (the majority of car owners tbh), I can see it working esp in built up areas.

I do honestly see this becoming a reality in the next 20 years. People having driving licences and owning their own cars will become the minority.
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Fair point. I may have misinterpreted and if that's the case then I agree with you.
 
b0rn2sk8 said:
The issue isn’t with the cars, it’s with the whole concept of ‘car sharing’ (e.g rent per journey) which is the other agenda people are pushing alongside EVs. It’s often linked to EVs because they are the future but the drive train is almost irrelevant.
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EVs enable this potential future with their automation and tech. I mean when you read the stats that the majority of cars spend 95% of their parked up, you sort of start and see the point.

Less cars means less resources used as well
 
b0rn2sk8 said:
The issue isn’t with the cars, it’s with the whole concept of ‘car sharing’ (e.g rent per journey) which is the other agenda people are pushing alongside EVs. It’s often linked to EVs because they are the future but the drive train is almost irrelevant.
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Agreed. Assuming that is the point that was being made and not one about renting a car for longer trips.
 
Greebo said:
EVs enable this potential future with their automation and tech. I mean when you read the stats that the majority of cars spend 95% of their parked up, you sort of start and see the point.

Less cars means less resources used as well
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Absolutely - all those PCP cars on 5000 miles per year parked up at the train station all day having taken their owner from home 2 miles away and then going two miles home to be parked up on the driveway. The cost per mile driven is astronomical.
 
Its very easy to talk about the 95% stat but don’t forget at least 50% of that 95% is when there is next to no demand (overnight).

If people are serious about pushing this, they need to look at the demand, not at the parked times. There’s a reason for rush hours at the end of the day.

I have no doubt it will work for some but for families or those in rural areas I just don’t see it taking off unless it’s massively cheaper which I doubt it will ever be.
 
WJA96 said:
Agreed. Assuming that is the point that was being made and not one about renting a car for longer trips.
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Sorry, I probably wasn't clear but yes I was referring to a potential situation where you book a car to turn up at your door for a set time and it drives itself there with either enough juice or a pre-determined strategy for getting you where you want to go (car swap, pre-determined mid journey break while the car charges etc.) and at the end of the trip the car just scurries off to charge itself up again.

Hence why I don't see it happening in my lifetime (I'm not quite 40 yet so hopefully we are talking a few years here :p ) but it has to at least be a potential scenario within the next 100 years. I can also see the '9 to 5 office job' no longer being a thing within that timescale as well which would help balance out the peaks.

Anyway, massive tangent from the current topic so apologies.
 
Journey said:
The obstacles to providing a charger is much less than have petroleum based products being stored and dispensed, and are for the most part very low maintenance. This means there will be plenty of competition at almost every junction, rather than just motorway services, so the price of high can be easily avoided, Instavolt and others are using this approach already, and others will follow.
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If that’s the case then will Instavolt go out of business as they’re too expensive? Let’s assume (and it’s bad to assume, I know that) that Pod-Point continue to sell their fast charge electricity at 23p/kW at every Tesco and Lidl store and that Gridserve are 24p/kW even on motorways, and Tesla are mid-20p as well, how can Instavolt, Osprey, Alfa etc. justify 35p/kW?
 
lordrobs said:
Sorry, I probably wasn't clear but yes I was referring to a potential situation where you book a car to turn up at your door for a set time and it drives itself there with either enough juice or a pre-determined strategy for getting you where you want to go (car swap, pre-determined mid journey break while the car charges etc.) and at the end of the trip the car just scurries off to charge itself up again.

Hence why I don't see it happening in my lifetime (I'm not quite 40 yet so hopefully we are talking a few years here :p ) but it has to at least be a potential scenario within the next 100 years. I can also see the '9 to 5 office job' no longer being a thing within that timescale as well which would help balance out the peaks.

Anyway, massive tangent from the current topic so apologies.
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It was me that misinterpreted so I should be the one apologising.
 
95% stat the robustness/reliability of cars might need improving if their daily shared usage was 50%, I suppose they can have a UV option for internal self-cleaning, too.

Paradigm could change too, if there is a public charger shortage, phev's might become the premium product,
bmw like mercedes are planning to up the battery range to 60miles (apart from weight/maintenance - the new c-class 300e - yum), and the nissan e-power range extender.
 
WJA96 said:
If that’s the case then will Instavolt go out of business as they’re too expensive? Let’s assume (and it’s bad to assume, I know that) that Pod-Point continue to sell their fast charge electricity at 23p/kW at every Tesco and Lidl store and that Gridserve are 24p/kW even on motorways, and Tesla are mid-20p as well, how can Instavolt, Osprey, Alfa etc. justify 35p/kW?
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Cos you don't need to go to Tesco for the privilege :D:cry: Gridservice hubs are 24p with the huge battery they use for energy trading. The motorway Gridserve/Ecotricity are 30p.

Osprey is 31p through their app. Geniepoint... who cares they are crap. nightmare to get started and poor speed and tends to fall over after 6minutes.

BP are my go to brand still.
 
I agree on BP, but it only makes sense over Lidl/Tesco Pod-Point if you're charging at least 100kW per month (I did 390kW on BP Pulse and 220kW at home last month) otherwise you don't break even on the membership fee.
 
New Motion charger almost installed today. The installers came round and concluded the run from the CU to the charger location is a bit too complex. So they'll be back in a few weeks to run the cabling, with an extra guy. More waiting.
 
WJA96 said:
At some point the car hire companies just won't have any ICE cars to rent to folks. Like 2036 unless you want to rent a year-old hybrid-ICE car, you'll be having electric rental cars or nothing. So the electric cars are just going to have to get better.

And if you look at where BEVs were in 2011, compared to what is available now, 2031 should be fine. Tesla are already talking about 500+ miles of range for their top 2022 models so it will be there for many more of us by 2025 and as charging moves to 800V from 400V the charging times will almost halve. Batteries are getting better all the time and we really shouldn't be projecting 2021 on the future because there is some form of (r)evolution in technology almost weekly at the moment.
Click to expand...

I don't see how people who don't have driveways and live on roads with 'free-for-all' parking are going to charge their cars?

There's also the issue, albeit barely in my lifetime where all these batteries are going to need to go somewhere once used.
 
b0rn2sk8 said:
Its very easy to talk about the 95% stat but don’t forget at least 50% of that 95% is when there is next to no demand (overnight).

If people are serious about pushing this, they need to look at the demand, not at the parked times. There’s a reason for rush hours at the end of the day.

I have no doubt it will work for some but for families or those in rural areas I just don’t see it taking off unless it’s massively cheaper which I doubt it will ever be.
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A lot of people dont even know how much per mile their cars are costing and would be shocked if they actually sat down and worked it out. I suspect a lot of people doing 5000 miles per year or less would be cheaper if they took a taxi everywhere now, never mind an auto ev car in the future.

I once ****** off my old boss when I worked out that everytime he ran out of fags and went to the all night garage to get a packet but then only bought one packet due to the rip off prices they charged, it had cost him £92 per mile.

People, and myself included, just dont feel like you have full independence if you dont have your own car and can jsut jump in it on a whim.

Also back in 2013 the official average stat for parked up was 96.5%

there are about 25 billion car trips per year, and with some 27 million cars, this suggests an average of just under 18 trips per car every week. Since the duration of the average car trip is about 20 minutes, the typical car is only on the move for 6 hours in the week: for the remaining 162 hours it is stationary – parked.
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And I get what you mean that will mainly all be at night but there will be lots of people using their cars for way more than 6 hours per week - reps, salesmen, customer client people etc (my gf in her old job used to spend 2 to 3 weeks on the road every month, sometimes driving for 4-5 hours per day on average) which means there are an awful lot of people who will have their car parked up for 98%+ of the time.

68% of people drive less than 10k miles per annum and 35% less than 5,000 miles per annum. I would suggest 35% of population would perhaps find taxis or future auto ev hire cheaper than running and owning a car. My parents are typical. They buy a new car every 3 years and do between 3000 and 5000 miles per annum, none of it at rush hour (retired). I suspect their cost per mile will be at least £1 per mile. So as long as the pricing structure of auto EV cars comes in right then they would be better off giving up their car. (they wont as they will see it as a removal of freedom and will never trust an auto drive car. I cant even persuade them to stop buying diesels even though the longest journey they make every month is 14 miles)

And for every person driving at night because they work nights, that ev car would then be available in the daytime.
 
CaptainRAVE said:
I don't see how people who don't have driveways and live on roads with 'free-for-all' parking are going to charge their cars?

There's also the issue, albeit barely in my lifetime where all these batteries are going to need to go somewhere once used.
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At our 'office' in Salford Quays (it's in a block of flats with multi-storey allocated parking spaces) we have a neighbour who has a Tesla Model 3 and no charger access. And she parks at Lidl for an hour every other week and gets 300 miles of range for about £15. And she's never had an issue.

For many people 30 minutes at Tesco free charging will get you 15-20 miles of driving. Most Tesco car parks allow 3 hours dwell time and that's 100 miles plus in some cars. For free. For a huge number of people that will be plenty. And Lidl and Tesco also offer 50 or 150kW fast charging for 23p/kW and that's a full charge in about 60 minutes.

The batteries are already being recycled into new batteries. That's incredibly important because the initial sourcing of the raw materials is incredibly bad for the environment.
 
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