I've seen all of these at some point:
- IE magically remembering a password. Reset settings, clear cache.
- control userpasswords2, manage passwords, delete all cached.
- services running as them
- applications set to auto-update with their [proxy] credentials
- network drives with saved incorrect alternative credentials
- scheduled tasks
- logged on to pc with old password (lock+unlock with newest pw to resolve)
- DCOM/COM identiy set with old credentials (admin tools->component admin)
- IIS app pool using old credentials (frequent occurence for software developers at my job)
- .net application set to use old password
- someone is trying to map a drive which is or was hosted on the PC concerned.
- ActiveSync and a Windows Mobile device - old pw stored on the device itself.
- Device/PDA/smartphone trying to retrieve mail via OWA SSL proxy with old credentials
- Old logon session to a different PC with a previous password
Alternatively, use the Account Lockout Tools:
http://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/library/cc738772(WS.10).aspx
The frequency and reliability of the incorrect password attempts can be of interest, i.e. every X hours or X days, or only on startup, or if it also happens when nobody is logged on to the PC.
The first point of call is to enable local success & failure security failure auditing (logon & account logon events) within secpol.msc.