Winter 2017/2018 - Thread

Rroff · 11 Feb 2018 at 10:26

robfosters said:
So it’s gonna get colder?

Hoping we’d be coming out of the worst of it towards the end of feb.

Nothing definite - next couple of days will probably help to clarify. Latest models runs are putting mild spells back in again but its still uncertain.

EDIT: Next couple of days are definitely going to get colder but what happens beyond that is still anyone's guess right now:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/t...rt=/charts/gefs/gefstmp2mmaxLondon.png?cb=477

Currently looking like the real cold is bottled up over Canada/Alaska side of the pole and warmer air holding over Russia which reduces our chances of colder weather depending on what this supposed SSW event does.

DXP55 · 11 Feb 2018 at 10:53

I see the -23C at winter Olympics is freezing makeup on faces of the reporters - Hopefully we won't have Clare Balding talking for a while

robfosters · 11 Feb 2018 at 11:01

Any long range forecasts yet for summer? Last years was the worst one I can remember.

Neil79 · 12 Feb 2018 at 00:36

https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/962808710199480320

:eek:

Rroff · 12 Feb 2018 at 11:33

Neil79 said:
https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/962808710199480320

It isn't looking good at the moment - 06Z update is showing deep cold bottled up over Canada and later incursions into eastern Europe with too much high pressure to the south of us to allow for anything but the odd cold night and possibly even damp foggy weather more consistent with autumn.

This seems to be the general trend from now to the end of the month - almost taking the mick

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/t...ok.com/charts/gfs/06_264_arctic850.png?cb=580

Be interesting to see how it breaks down over the next 24-48 hours.

Neil79 · 12 Feb 2018 at 12:20

Gutted

robfosters · 12 Feb 2018 at 12:24

Wait a minute, are people on here actually hoping for arctic conditions for some crazy reason?

Rroff · 12 Feb 2018 at 12:31

Neil79 said:
Gutted

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png?cb=987

Several runs showing air mass down to almost -15 there though, which weren't there yesterday, so definitely its all still um up in the air - I'm not getting too hopeful either way though - huge spread of results towards the end of the month.

ajf · 12 Feb 2018 at 13:08

Neil79 said:
https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/962808710199480320

Is that good if you want spring to arrive though?

Rroff · 12 Feb 2018 at 13:17

Right now its all uncertainty but the signals in favour of milder aren't really Spring like - mostly milder, but still cool, muck with potential for some day time warming up sometimes :|

So pretty much par for the course for British weather really.

EDIT: 12Z update not making things any clearer - even bigger spread of possible results :s but at least it isn't ruling out a significant cold weather event.

Rroff · 12 Feb 2018 at 23:07

LOL dunno if its struggling with a potential SSW event but this chart is kind of crazy:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png?cb=66

Some huge variations in potential outcome.

Neil79 · 13 Feb 2018 at 10:27

Rroff said:
LOL dunno if its struggling with a potential SSW event but this chart is kind of crazy:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png?cb=66

Some huge variations in potential outcome.

And... ECM!

Neil79 · 13 Feb 2018 at 10:45

V_R · 13 Feb 2018 at 10:57

So to someone like me who doesn't know what I'm looking at, is this a good or bad thing?

Rroff · 13 Feb 2018 at 10:59

Neil79 said:
And... ECM!

Someone elsewhere was noting in relation to what you are pointing out that despite the upper air mass cold incursion the models are still showing daytime ground level temperatures around 6C! seems the models are still struggling.

V_R said:
So to someone like me who doesn't know what I'm looking at, is this a good or bad thing?

Hard to say right now and depends what you are looking for - as in the video depending on exactly how it turns out we could see a taste of spring or a blast of colder weather with potential for snow.

TonyTurbo78 · 13 Feb 2018 at 11:42

Another boring winter on the south coast. Snow down here feels like its getting a rarer occurance with each passing year

robfosters · 13 Feb 2018 at 11:48

TonyTurbo78 said:
Another boring winter on the south coast. Snow down here feels like its getting a rarer occurance with each passing year

Good. Snows great when you’re a kid but as an adult I just find it and the associated cold a bloody nuisance.

Rroff · 13 Feb 2018 at 11:49

TonyTurbo78 said:
Another boring winter on the south coast. Snow down here feels like its getting a rarer occurance with each passing year

Be interesting to see how it pans out over the next few years - many weather patterns/oscillations are starting to reverse again - solar cycle is in a similar position to before the 2009-2011 winters https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_24 though there is a lot more complexity to it than just that.

Neil79 · 13 Feb 2018 at 12:13

robfosters said:
Good. Snows great when you’re a kid but as an adult I just find it and the associated cold a bloody nuisance.

Depends on how long it lasts, a couple of days of heavy snow and on the ground people will have to deal with it

- Weeks on end then yeh! I need Snow for photography, plus sick and tired of the drab, wet, muddy conditions we have at the moment

TonyTurbo78 · 13 Feb 2018 at 12:41

robfosters said:
Good. Snows great when you’re a kid but as an adult I just find it and the associated cold a bloody nuisance.

I love it, as do kids, pets, photographers etc..it's still exciting for me as it's such a rare occurrence now.