World Cup Betting appraisal

newbiejim

newbiejim

newbiejim

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Joined
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IMHO its great to have a flutter on the World Cup & its always wise to bet early as the odds invariably get shorter as the tournament draws near. I`m currently formulating my strategy and here are my initial thoughts wich hopefully will elicit some opinions

Ok here are some salient points

The first 17 World Cups have been shared amongst just seven nations with Brazil winning most with five trophies.

and here are said teams

Brazil currently circa 4/1 (can only get shorter)
Italy currently circa 12/1 (good value?)
Germany currently circa 9/1 (better bet then England IMHO)
Argentina currently circa 11/1 (hmmmmmm)
England currently circa 7/1 (poor value)
France currently circa 25/1 (looks like great value)
(and Uruguay who aint there this year)

Only one team (Brazil) have ever won outside of their own continent.

6 of the 17 winners have been from the host country.

From the last 6 world cups 11 of the 12 finalists have came from only 4 nations,Brazil, Italy, Germany & Argentina.

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My opinion/s.

Brazil as ever must have a significant chance.
Germany will grind it out and have a super chance.
Italy, cant see them winning but have the talent.
England, great chance but not showing enough solid top class form/ability.
France, if they play to Mr Ongrees strengths could represent great betting value.
Argentina, cant see them winning, might be good to bet against.
Holland cannot be ignored qualifying impressively.
Spain, will it be their turn at last, must do well sooner or later with loads of talent?
Sweden & USA possible each way bets?
Mexico often acquit themselves well.
Czech Republic, can they really impress or will they be another pre-tournament hyped flop?

Furthermore its always wise to take value when its offered in individual matches, Senegal @ 11/1 when they beat France springs to mind :) :)
 
The Past is behind us, the present is now, Put your money on the team with the best tatics and team. Simple as that. Odds are nothing if your pretty certain to lose money.
 
newbiejim said:
so Brazil then? :)
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The world cup to me this year poses one question "who will face Brazil in the final?" and then put your money on who you think will get there, and hope they can beat the best in international football. ofc you can bet on Brazil and put loads of money on to see a very probable profit, but wheres the fun in that? :D
 
Interesting thread cheers, there are some facts there I wasn't aware of :)

The host nation always has a chance but tbh this has got to be the worst German side I have ever seen, Italy destroyed them recently.

Hate to admit this but I think my money may be going on England this year
 
Tom0 said:
The Past is behind us, the present is now, Put your money on the team with the best tatics and team. Simple as that. Odds are nothing if your pretty certain to lose money.
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Fair point.
As in racing though, a lot of betting is done on past form. If The Czech Republic were to play Argentina in the final (not sure if this is possible or not, don't really care), and if Argentina got to the final playing badly... I would still put my money on them. Argentina have more experience in the latter stages of such competitions, they've in fact won... thus the smart money goes on them.

Replace the above two squads with similar ones, and this still stands.
 
IMO England have nearly ticked all the boxes for me BUT not quite, they have seemd to stutter, falter and lack fluency. I honestly would really like to see England do well (I`m one of those Scots who doesnt agree with the petty patriotism we see up here, typically manifesting in anti-Englishness). If they do well it will be down to grit in the style of Mr Lampard IMHO.
 
Jimmeh said:
Fair point.
As in racing though, a lot of betting is done on past form. If The Czech Republic were to play Argentina in the final (not sure if this is possible or not, don't really care), and if Argentina got to the final playing badly... I would still put my money on them. Argentina have more experience in the latter stages of such competitions, they've in fact won... thus the smart money goes on them.

Replace the above two squads with similar ones, and this still stands.
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of course, but if the players from the past in the squad are old? what if there is a bad formation? bount of injuries? you dont put your money on them then do you? football betting is all tatical and to do with a teams present situation, not past achievments.
 
IMHO whats important here is that both points of view have weight, the skill is determining which is more important.

Form can be transient, teams can flatter to deceive etc ( I painfully remember us, Scotland that is, being one of the tournament favourites in 1978, and we were a very good side)

The core stalwarts of the international soccer elite have solid claims to being prominent in all the major events, even if they are not playing well their infrastucture at home is proven to produce top quality teams and all things being equal will get them in the ballpark so to speak......
 
newbiejim said:
********************************************************
My opinion/s.

Brazil as ever must have a significant chance.
Germany will grind it out and have a super chance.
Italy, cant see them winning but have the talent.
England, great chance but not showing enough solid top class form/ability.
France, if they play to Mr Ongrees strengths could represent great betting value.
Argentina, cant see them winning, might be good to bet against.
Holland cannot be ignored qualifying impressively.
Spain, will it be their turn at last, must do well sooner or later with loads of talent?
Sweden & USA possible each way bets?
Mexico often acquit themselves well.
Czech Republic, can they really impress or will they be another pre-tournament hyped flop?
:)
Click to expand...


I wouldnt agree with your opinion on Germany there are truely woefull, its the worst german side in living memory.
France dont have a chance, almost every other team listed is better than them, They have Henry, but the squad as a whole was better 4 years ago, and they didnt score a single goal then.
I wouldnt look past Brazil and Argentina.
 
atpbx said:
I wouldnt agree with your opinion on Germany there are truely woefull, its the worst german side in living memory.
France dont have a chance, almost every other team listed is better than them, They have Henry, but the squad as a whole was better 4 years ago, and they didnt score a single goal then.
I wouldnt look past Brazil and Argentina.
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Very true, & when you look for a good strong well organised european team that could reliably match the South Americans.............is there one? :eek:
 
newbiejim said:
IMHO whats important here is that both points of view have weight, the skill is determining which is more important.

Form can be transient, teams can flatter to deceive etc ( I painfully remember us, Scotland that is, being one of the tournament favourites in 1978, and we were a very good side)

The core stalwarts of the international soccer elite have solid claims to being prominent in all the major events, even if they are not playing well their infrastucture at home is proven to produce top quality teams and all things being equal will get them in the ballpark so to speak......
Click to expand...

I guess thats a fair point ye, something to think about when putting that money down
 
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Carlos_S said:
I did a World Cup Predictor on BBC and got a Brazil v Germany final, I think England will have to face Brazil before the final.
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I get a Brazil beating Argentina in the final and England finishing 3rd having beaten france in the play off.

The one match which could change everything is i have Brazil beating italy in the second knockout stage.
If change that to italy winning England win the world cup.

Go me.
 
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