xG is absolutely pointless

[Stu999]

What do you think? I don’t see the value of ‘expected’ anything in football. Unexpected results happen all the time, VAR can intervene, etc.

I don’t understand why people go on about it.

 

[Stu999]

This is like saying "whats the point of odds for betting companies, things don't work out like they should all the time".


You just need to understand a little about statistics to appreciate it.

No, it isn’t. There’s an obvious point to betting odds. A trade off between enticing punters to gamble and losing money, that’s the entire “game”.

Your last point is what I was really getting at. A lot of fans don’t understand much about it so say things after a loss like, “Well, the xG was x for us and y for you, so we should have won”.

The moneyball stuff and statistical analysis is great, I’m unsure what value is derived from putting it out to fans.

 

[Stu999]

Like what?

Possession, shots, shots on target, corners conceded, bookings, etc., etc. Hard to believe you couldn’t have guessed this.