Poll: The EU Referendum: How Will You Vote? (April Poll)

[estebanrey]

Imagine if it was the other way around and France leaves and they get a really good deal out of the negotiation. What do you think Nigel Farage and UKIP would be saying in return? They would be using France as a great example.

...and if France left and they got screwed over, Farage and co would use it as proof of how spiteful the EU is and further evidence that the EU is only interested in self protection and expansion at all costs, even if it hurts member states own economies.

You aren't suggesting that if France left and got a bad deal, UKIP would say "Oh well, I guess we'll disband then as we wouldn't want to be treated like France if we left...we were wrong" are you?

 

[Gux]

Yes, the EU will agree free trade agreements with other sovereign nations, without a requirement for free movement of people.

Yes they will, even though they haven't got many of those deals in place.

But UK is a different case, if they leave, direct comparison will be made of the effect of being inside the club or outside of it.

If the EU project wants to survive, they will need to be careful what they give and what they get in return.

Giving the UK a free trade agreement while excluding them from any potential downsides, will only encourage the break-up of the union and will give free ammunition to the anti-EU parties.

 

[Jokester]

Which includes the abolition of all tariffs?

Oh.

Yes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro-Mediterranean_free_trade_area

 

[kindai]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/25/after-40-years-of-being-lied-to-its-time-to-leave-the-eu/

 

[Gux]

...and if France left and they got screwed over, Farage and co would use it as proof of how spiteful the EU is and further evidence that the EU is only interested in self protection and expansion at all costs, even if it hurts member states own economies.

You aren't suggesting that if France left and got a bad deal, UKIP would say "Oh well, I guess we'll disband then as we wouldn't want to be treated like France if we left...we were wrong" are you?

Ofcourse he will say that, but then so what? He has been saying this exact same words for years anyway

Every other party will simply say, that this is further proof that staying inside the club is a better long term economic deal and they would have evidence to support their argument. The majority of people will only look at the end result, does this benefit fit me or not.

And EU would not be spiteful in anyway. Having trade tariffs between countries is the standard method and has been standard since trading first began. They will simply say that this is the normal rules that now apply.

 

[[TW]Fox]

Yes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro-Mediterranean_free_trade_area

That link makes absolutely no mention of Japan nor does it claim abolition of all tariffs. So not sure how it supports your claim that the EU will soon have tariff free trade with Japan?

 

[Insanties_birth]

Rules of travel and trade will still be put down to negotiations and a vote with the EU anyway. If you think we will come out without free movement then you are just fooling yourself.

As for local management being better, that depends entirely on the management and spending trends on our government in the last decade does not instil me with confidence that they will pick up the bill when it comes to many of the areas and would rather just shift the money onto something we dont need or care about or would just use it as a once a year headline how government spending is x amount less in xxx area when in reality its just been spent in another area.



Not at all. We break from the group and we lose the support of the group, while they lose the support of one of the wealthier countries but still just one country. The individual countries will not feel the same hit we do and at thye end of the day that is what the EU is made of. Too much emphasis is placed on the EU as a single body and people conveniently forget its made up of individual countries.

That's right, and so if we get outvoted for stuff that is less beneficial? My argument was never that trade deals are bad and so we shouldn't do them, but rather that the more people you have in a single agreemant the less tailored, beneficial and specific it will be to what you really want / need. I never mentioned free movement, that seems to be the thing you guys get obsessed about. Maybe I should start saying that being in the EU won't guarantee us flying saucers Free movement ideally we would get rid of as it's damaging in the level of migration we receive but if not we should be at least allowed to have some negotiation on things that WOULD influence why people move to britain i.e. the level of in work benefits, child benefits etc. This stuff plays a role in some migrants decision making to travel here and so could help to keep free movement while still limiting the numbers.

To address the point you brought up though, being inside the EU get us a lot of the 'we won't let you prejudise against other europeans' argument that the EU uses a lot to prevent us from having those sort of limits. Others have pointed out the norway system (on that check list) offerred quite a few favourable terms but if we was also able to put these sort of stuff in place to benefit from freedom of movement while limiting it's negative impacts we could actually be better off out. I know there's simple rhetoric to be had that we're better in than out but as pointed out, when inside the EU they simply tell us we can't prejudise against other EU members and don't discuss the issue but being out the EU that could lend to us having leeway there. So even if we left the EU but chose to negotiate freedom of movement back in it does sound like even from a migration standpoint we're in a better position to negotiate despite the usual arguments we get that there's no ending freedom of movement (can't end it but can disincentivise it).

It's easy to be hater on UK governments but the EU has had there issues as well so just because they deal with less policy (thus less chance to show us if they're just as bad) doesn't mean they are any better. I agree they have given quite a few pro consumer policies which is nice but they've never really done anything I'd wake up and slap myself for voting against. In the end you can drivel on about spending this or spending that but there's a difference between top down planning and people who are closer to the ground, listen to the people and try to get elected based on resolving our issues compared to the top down EU approach of just slapping policies to fit 20 or so countries.

 

[silversurfer]

Play it again Sam

http://www.theguardian.com/business...b09a82af148413#block-5720ae34e4b09a82af148413

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/ci...out-of-cash-by-MAY-pushing-Europe-into-CRISIS

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/...Greek-debt-crisis-Euroland-isn-t-working.html

 

[phil675]

http://www.theguardian.com/business...b09a82af148413#block-5720ae34e4b09a82af148413

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/ci...out-of-cash-by-MAY-pushing-Europe-into-CRISIS

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/...Greek-debt-crisis-Euroland-isn-t-working.html

Better throw some more money in the fire.. It's not all the EU's fault though, the Greeks voted in lefty socialists that promised to pay for everything and now they are surprised that the money has run out.

 

[Jokester]

That link makes absolutely no mention of Japan nor does it claim abolition of all tariffs. So not sure how it supports your claim that the EU will soon have tariff free trade with Japan?

Sorry brain fart, I've merged two threads of discussion into one post

 

[Narj]

Re: Being outvoted on things that aren't in our interest, that's exactly why we have devolution in the UK. One size doesn't fit all between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland so never mind 28 states. Domestically, local democracy is the right thing in some cases IMO. The EU project is heading in the opposite direction so personally, I can't in good conscience vote to remain. It's not all about headline figures and it's certainly not a solely economic argument.

I do have friends that have businesses in the EU and totally respect their reasons for wanting to stay in, however this has to be the most personal issue that people will vote on for a long time. I'm voting against centralisation, federalism and redistribution of funds that could be better used at home. That's about it in all honesty. The immigration argument is overblown and way down on my list. I may get made redundant if Brexit wins but I'll survive.

I just wish the whole campaign stank a little less on both sides. Gutted I voted Tory at the last GE.

In truth, we're all just venting here and are unlikely to sway anyone that's already taken a solid position so keep it civil and avoid the petty playground insults.

 

[estebanrey]

Re: Being outvoted on things that aren't in our interest, that's exactly why we have devolution in the UK. One size doesn't fit all between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland so never mind 28 states.

Great point and one I'd love the 'Pro-EU whilst seemingly contradictory anti-UK' SNP to address.

They want out of a Union that over the past 30 years has slowly granted them more powers but vehemently in to one that has done the exact opposite to its members.

 

[Tefal]

That's why it is in majority member states interest to ensure that the UK gets a **** deal. To stop any potential chain reactions you speak of. It's not really a difficult concept to understand frankly.

it is when a **** deal affects their economies as it means a **** deal for their companies too.


you think merkal will be happily going "hah look what we did to the uk" while German newspapers are reporting "major job losses as trade to the uk drops dramatically"

 

[Freakbro]

it is when a **** deal affects their economies as it means a **** deal for their companies too.


you think merkal will be happily going "hah look what we did to the uk" while German newspapers are reporting "major job losses as trade to the uk drops dramatically"

Why does everyone have to go to the extreme every time, do you really think some tariffs are going to cripple industry?

Germany has tariffs with the USA on cars, 2.5% I believe, oh and look, they still sell cars to the US, so they will still sell cars to the UK, the consumer will just pay a bit more for them and there's a bit more paperwork to do for the companies, so costs will increase a bit.

So the end result is, it's a bit less efficient, a bit more expensive and everything carries on as normal

 

[MookJong]

I wonder if they played the Obama card too early? Martin Lewis gave a good and rational perspective last night on TV.

I think the Obama shock might wear off a little over the coming weeks. I think Brexit need to get a clear and coherent theme going though.

 

[Freakbro]

On the other hand though, everyone keeps just saying 'We're the 5th largest economy, of course everyone will trade with us' blah blah without I suspect, understanding what that means.

If you look up our '5th largest economy' (only by certain metrics, it's 9th by others) 78% of that is made up of financial services....so basically, the City of London being the financial services capital of Europe, if not the world.

Now, if the EU decides to impose conditions that restricts that, so their financial centres can get a piece of the pie (which they want to do anyway) that would hurt us enormously and benefit them...

The bit of our economy that is 'trade' of goods....ie everyone keeps on about they will still sell/buy from us, is a tiny fraction of our economy in comparison.

 

[Mulder]

On the other hand though, everyone keeps just saying 'We're the 5th largest economy, of course everyone will trade with us' blah blah without I suspect, understanding what that means.

If you look up our '5th largest economy' (only by certain metrics, it's 9th by others) 78% of that is made up of financial services....so basically, the City of London being the financial services capital of Europe, if not the world.

Now, if the EU decides to impose conditions that restricts that, so their financial centres can get a piece of the pie (which they want to do anyway) that would hurt us enormously and benefit them...

The bit of our economy that is 'trade' of goods....ie everyone keeps on about they will still sell/buy from us, is a tiny fraction of our economy in comparison.

What EU financial centres are you talking about?

There's a reason London is number 1 globally for financial services, our legal system, our expertise, our time zone, our language, our business friendly laws, tax regime etc.

The list linked above shows Switzerland as number 6, actually up one place from last year. Why isn't what you're saying will happen to London happening to Zurich?

The first EU centre on that list is ranked 14th.... I'm with the ex CEO of HSBC, all this talk of London losing its status as the financial centre of the world under Brexit is nonsense.

 

[Mulder]

I don't really see his case as 'very strong'. Can you point out what makes it a very strong argument? It seems bang average and completely uninspiring.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/423561ae-0bc6-11e6-b0f1-61f222853ff3.html#axzz476uyLRp7

He says we can trade with the EU when out of it - of course we can, no one rational is denying that, but like he says we'll still have the free movement of people... isn't that the single biggest issue concerning Brexit supporters?! Would they want Brexit if free movement of people remained?

His assertion that nothing will be done to harm our financial services, then saying we could be like Switzerland seems bizarre, too.

Are you saying if we don't get changes to free movement then Brexit makes no sense whatsoever? I couldn't disagree more. The immigration point is massively overplayed, and pretty low down on my list of reasons for wanting to leave.

Do you trust the IMF more then this guy Moses? Do you appreciate my point around the IMF having a vested interest in keeping Britain in because it helps prop the EU up and they've got a lot of money lent to Greece? Do you appreciate this guy is (now) an independent commentator without any agenda/interest to protect? Do you value his opinion less despite him running one of the largest banks in the world for 5 years just because he is no longer in "authority?"

See my post above re harming our financial services sector, that's just more fearmongering from the remain camp.

 

[Freakbro]

all this talk of London losing its status as the financial centre of the world under Brexit is nonsense.

Here we go with the extremes again

Did I say that? or did I say post Brexit regulations with Europe could hurt us? We do ~£20Bn financial services with the EU about 1.1% of GDP, so not insignificant.

It's a view that has been expressed already by plenty of people, so hardly 'nonsense'

What happens to the City after Brexit?

One of the major uncertainties facing financial services will be the level of access to EU markets they are granted in the event of a Leave vote.

As it stands, the City operates under uniform EU rules, which allows Britain to export financial services worth more than £20bn, or 1.1pc of GDP, to the EU.

Should Britain enter some form of associate membership after a Brexit, it would throw into doubt this "passporting" of financial services.

UK firms and regulators would have to ensure they still comply with the raft of Brussels' existing regulations in order to regain access to the single market.

For some bodies, such as lightly regulated hedge funds, this would hardly be a hindrance to their operations. However, others such as clearing houses, could face serious disruption to their business.

The ECB has already tried to pass laws forcing all clearing houses to be based on the continent. Britain successfully overturned the ruling by taking the case to the European Court of Justice in a landmark ruling last year.

"Euro-area institutions may use any British exit to try and bring a greater share of euro-denominated trading and settlement within the eurozone, taking business away from the City," says Simon Wells at HSBC. "This is a very real threat."

A messy Brexit - in which relations between the UK and the rest turn sour - could represent a "worst-case scenario", where the UK's financial services are no longer deemed equivalent to European rivals under the EU's regulatory regime, says Edward Chan at law firm Linklaters.

UK bank might have to then set up a branch in every single one of the European jurisdictions and have each of those authorised
Edward Chan, Linklaters

"For a US bank setting up a subsidiary in the UK, it would be difficult to see how they could then access the European markets in the way that they do now," says Mr Chan.

"For UK banks, they might have to then set up a branch in every single one of the European jurisdictions and have each of those authorised. Each of them will come with a local management requirement. It would be a real lack of efficiency for any UK entity to have to do that."

But that's fine, because when people bring up unknowns and possibilities, it's all rubbish because you know it'll all be ok

Oh yea, don't forget to throw in a fear mongering in there too, boy, you guys do get scared easily!

 

[Metallifux]

Why does everyone have to go to the extreme every time, do you really think some tariffs are going to cripple industry?

Germany has tariffs with the USA on cars, 2.5% I believe, oh and look, they still sell cars to the US, so they will still sell cars to the UK, the consumer will just pay a bit more for them and there's a bit more paperwork to do for the companies, so costs will increase a bit.

So the end result is, it's a bit less efficient, a bit more expensive and everything carries on as normal

Interesting what you say given the usual price difference between the US and the UK. I wonder what difference VAT could make. I'm under no illusions that VAT is going to be reduced/disappear overnight, but I'd like to think it would come down eventually.