Taiwan and China thread.

dowie

dowie

dowie

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This was popping up in the Ukraine thread every so often so perhaps ought to have its own thread.

Rather than reply to this post in there I might as well use it to start this thread:

bris said:
Ok I know what you are saying, it may seem a bit over the top, but you may have noticed Pelosi gave Taiwan a wide berth and visited everywhere else.

They took it seriously enough to not let her visit after all.
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This is false, Pelosi has just landed:

edition.cnn.com

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi lands in Taiwan amid threats of Chinese retaliation

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed in Taipei on Tuesday, marking a significant show of support for Taiwan despite China's threats of retaliation over the visit.
edition.cnn.com edition.cnn.com
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed in Taipei on Tuesday, marking a significant show of support for Taiwan despite China's threats of retaliation over the visit.
Pelosi's stop in Taipei is the first time that a US House speaker has visited Taiwan in 25 years. Her trip comes at a low point in US-China relations and despite warnings from the Biden administration against a stop in Taiwan.
A Taiwanese official told CNN that Pelosi is expected to stay in Taipei overnight.


Pelosi's stop in Taiwan was not listed on the itinerary of her congressional visit to Asia, but the stop had been discussed for weeks in the leadup to her trip. The potential stop prompted warnings from China as well as the Biden administration, which has briefed the speaker about the risks of visiting the democratic, self-governing island, which China claims as part of its territory.
On Monday, China warned against the "egregious political impact" of Pelosi's visit, saying that the Chinese military "won't sit by idly" if Beijing believes its "sovereignty and territorial integrity" is being threatened.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Monday that the decision to visit Taiwan was the speaker's, noting there was past precedent of members of Congress -- including previous House speakers -- visiting. "Congress is an independent, coequal branch of government," Blinken said in remarks at the United Nations. "The decision is entirely the speaker's."
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China is obviously going to be miffed by this what they're going to do in return isn't clear, I'd hope they're not stupid enough to actually take on the US directly via some sort of silly spat as that would almost certainly get a direct military response, but there is a risk that they might try and take a small Taiwanese island or try and ramp up exercises/incursions and that sort of stuff can lead to deadly mistakes too.
 

Rroff

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Reports of massive military movements (talk of 40+ brigades - which is probably 120+ thousand troops) in Fujian province China - but I'm not familiar enough with the goings on there to know what is and isn't normal, scheduled exercises, etc. Some rather odd stuff as well, suggesting it is more a show of force, such as equipment they'd have a hard time even getting to Taiwan and lots and lots of civilian boats on military transport which would have little utility, other than for creating artificial reefs, in an initial assault on Taiwan.

I'm not saying it won't happen, if they wanted to do it at any cost/use life in a disposable fashion to that end they could have a crack at it now, but by most military standards I can't see China making military moves on Taiwan before around 2025-2027 or so when they have the airbases and amphibious warfare capabilities in place to support it.

I have no idea as to the veracity of footage such as this: https://twitter.com/ChaudharyParvez/status/1554432428823162881
 
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Keltyx

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I can't see them using military at this stage. The US has a law which says they are legally bound to assist Taiwan in the case of invasion from China or elsewhere. I read somewhere that Taiwan's number 1 trading partner is China, they rely heavily on them for food imports. China could make life very difficult for the island. And they are unlikely to find a lot of local support as other countries will fear backlash from China themselves.
 

robfosters

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Keltyx said:
I can't see them using military at this stage. The US has a law which says they are legally bound to assist Taiwan in the case of invasion from China or elsewhere. I read somewhere that Taiwan's number 1 trading partner is China, they rely heavily on them for food imports. China could make life very difficult for the island. And they are unlikely to find a lot of local support as other countries will fear backlash from China themselves.
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Why are they sending fighter jets to Taiwan right now?
 

Rroff

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Can't imagine these latest Chinese military movements are a reaction to Pelosi though, even given her trip was delayed from April, - this scale of movement would need to be organised on a much larger/longer scale than a reaction to that.

throwaway4372 said:
China has been super clear that they're taking Taiwan soonish.
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Something which came out of the Ukraine war - some higher up Russian officers seem under the impression that China would be invading Taiwan by the end of this year. Personally I can't see it but that notion probably came from fairly high up the chain rather than something they've dreamed up or just anti-West rhetoric.
 

dowie

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Rroff said:
Can't imagine these latest Chinese military movements are a reaction to Pelosi though, even given her trip was delayed from April, - this scale of movement would need to be organised on a much larger/longer scale than a reaction to that.
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AFAIK they were already mobilised for some military exercises however some of the recent moves might well be in response to this, albeit using troops that were already committed to the exercises.
 
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