I agree with you about weak excuses. I think people will always justify their acts (to themselves) no matter what they do. Joss Whedon once said (paraphrasing) that the secret to portraying a bad guy accurately is not to play him as evil because to him he's not. I think that's true.Using the excuse of 'he cant't afford to buy it, so wouldn't have bought it anyway' is just another poor way of justifying getting something for nothing. The reason he downloads it is because he wants to have it, he can get away with it, it saves him money and his own morals don't prevent him from doing it. Nothing else.
So ignoring what i've just said i'll try and justify, or at least explain my piracy:
First off i should say that i'm one of those try before you buy pirates, when it comes to games. Buy could mean anything from staright away as soon as I know I like it to waiting for it to cost a fiver. So i admit it's costing the industry money.
Despite having had broadband for the last 4 years and visiting those nasty sites reguarly to aquire american TV series it's only in the last year that i've been downloading games. Why?
Well it may cause a few groans but i was driven there by the games makers. A faulty disc and a FU policy from the publisher left me with the choice of paying again or trying to get the game from another source. up till then I'd left warez alone, partly because I was anti piracy and partly because I was concerned how difficult it would be. That first experience opened my eyes to just how easy it was. Infact the ease extended beyond the lack of expense to not even needing a disc to play the game.
Next came the expansion pack for a game where I felt the makers had taken the money and then not supported the game leaving it to the community to supply all the patches. Why should i give them more money when they can't even hold up their end of the bargain for the original purchase? After that it was a small leap to downloading the sequel to a similarly unsupported and broken game from a distrustworthy publisher. A potentially sloppy console port etc.
The feeling of being taken for a ride by the industry that had grown over the previous few years finally had a better outlet than ranting to the brick wall in the games forums. They already had their money and in the suits eyes that made the game successful. Who cares if I enjoyed it? Perhaps pirates are more sophisticated than people give them credit for. Not just mindless thieves but people making a statement about the current state of gaming on the PC. people saying "we love gaming but we don't love your designed by commitee, lowest common denominator console ports".
Another possible reason for piracy is that the industry is a victim of its own successful marketing. Significant money is thrown at making these games "must have" products. By fuelling that demand and creating a society where the desire for material goods overcomes morality the publishers are the ones driving people to steal.