All eyes on Wall St - What's your prediction?

14:08 - European stocks falling again.

FTSE 100 down 27 points
German DAX down over 150.

2.30 will be interesting.

I also gather there will be a statement from the fed at about 5.30 our time.
 
Dolph said:
I see the usual OcUK jealous people are in wishing doom and gloom on everyone hoping they'll then finally be able to feel superior to those who are actually successful...

I also see the OcUK finanical experts are in, consistantly getting it wrong since 2001 :)
Click to expand...


a lot haven't been getting wrong either, i have always said, thing would start to go down wards in 2008. Looks like its coming now.

Also you always seem to come out with the comments that everything going to be ok!

Well its doesn't look like it this time, i would give it another month are two.
 
teaboy5 said:
a lot haven't been getting wrong either, i have always said, thing would start to go down wards in 2008. Looks like its coming now.

Also you always seem to come out with the comments that everything going to be ok!

Well its doesn't look like it this time, i would give it another month are two.
Click to expand...

Actually I'm on record as saying, for example, that the housing market will stagnate back in 2005 (lots of other people were predicting a crash even back then), We all got it wrong, but some of us were more incorrect than others.

I don't buy either the continual massive growth, or the horrific crash scenarios, not least because the people actually managing economies will try to prevent either, rather than wishing it to be true and taking steps to make sure it happens (which is what most of those who are predicting a crash think they should do).

There are people on here who actively want a recession, and oppose all measures to prevent one as "protecting banks/rich/homeowners". There is a reason why their stance is flawed, and that's that their desires are the opposite of those who actually make the decisions.
 
Dolph said:
Actually I'm on record as saying, for example, that the housing market will stagnate back in 2005 (lots of other people were predicting a crash even back then), We all got it wrong, but some of us were more incorrect than others.

I don't buy either the continual massive growth, or the horrific crash scenarios, not least because the people actually managing economies will try to prevent either, rather than wishing it to be true and taking steps to make sure it happens (which is what most of those who are predicting a crash think they should do).

There are people on here who actively want a recession, and oppose all measures to prevent one as "protecting banks/rich/homeowners". There is a reason why their stance is flawed, and that's that their desires are the opposite of those who actually make the decisions.
Click to expand...


Ahh but, a recession this time will hurt more than any other point i think. The high levels if debt within the population is out of control.

It will be a lot harder this time round, would you not agree?
 
Morba said:
indian market closed after dropping 25%?
Click to expand...
Time to buy then :cool:

Dolph said:
I can only draw my conclusions from your posts, it seems you wish for a crash to punish those more successful in life than you are.
Click to expand...
It's not jealousy on my part because I am more successful than a lot of people and technically I'm better off financially despite having less. The messed up thing is my combined earnings are double that of the guy living downstairs but we wouldn't be able to afford buy the flat he lives in. So he can own his own place, go on holiday, eat premium and have new cars on his own income but I can't even though we have much more coming in. That's what's messed up.
 
teaboy5 said:
Ahh but, a recession this time will hurt more than any other point i think. The high levels if debt within the population is out of control.

It will be a lot harder this time round, would you not agree?
Click to expand...

Major recessions are always hard, it's why governments and economists do their best to prevent, not encourage them.

If we hit a major recession now, we would have problems, mainly for the reasons you have outlined above, and also because of government spending and interference in the lives of the populus which both commits the government to spending money they don't have, and conditions the populus that they don't have to be responsible.

The main reason the early 90's recession hit hard was that the government could not take the steps to mitigate it that it should have done, due to the UK's membership of the ERM. When they should have been dropping rates (like the Fed have now), they were forced to raise them, which made the problem worse.
 
Dolph said:
Major recessions are always hard, it's why governments and economists do their best to prevent, not encourage them.

If we hit a major recession now, we would have problems, mainly for the reasons you have outlined above, and also because of government spending and interference in the lives of the populus which both commits the government to spending money they don't have, and conditions the populus that they don't have to be responsible.

The main reason the early 90's recession hit hard was that the government could not take the steps to mitigate it that it should have done, due to the UK's membership of the ERM. When they should have been dropping rates (like the Fed have now), they were forced to raise them, which made the problem worse.
Click to expand...


Indeed, the way the feds have acted clearly shows they are in trouble.

On another point, the rate at which oil is falling clearly shows the price was so high as a result of the way the markets traded it. Which SA has been saying all along.
 
Dow Jones is now -3.61%
S&P500 -3.45%
Nasdaq -5.03% (only 2 stocks higher, and only marginally)

European markets bounced up when cut was announced, now sunk back down, FTSE100 just about level
 
Dolph said:
Major recessions are always hard, it's why governments and economists do their best to prevent, not encourage them.

If we hit a major recession now, we would have problems, mainly for the reasons you have outlined above, and also because of government spending and interference in the lives of the populus which both commits the government to spending money they don't have, and conditions the populus that they don't have to be responsible.

The main reason the early 90's recession hit hard was that the government could not take the steps to mitigate it that it should have done, due to the UK's membership of the ERM. When they should have been dropping rates (like the Fed have now), they were forced to raise them, which made the problem worse.
Click to expand...

But we've been living off credit far too much for the last few years.
They never did anything to discourage this when it was clear it would have a damaging long term effect.
It's not possible for debt to rise at a faster pace than income for a sustained length of time, yet when the exact thing has been happening for the last few years we hear of a successful economy.
At some point this has to stop and spending has to come down to levels that are sustainable with current incomes.
The longer it goes on the worse things will be when it finally does come to an end.
Mervyn King has always been one to say about taking small measures to prevent more drastic action, but this hasn't been done with consumer debt.

If we don't get a recession now we could end up with debt increasing for another few years and then having the mother of all depressions - I think this is why some people consider a recession not to be a bad thing at the moment.
 
Haircut said:
But we've been living off credit far too much for the last few years.
They never did anything to discourage this when it was clear it would have a damaging long term effect.
It's not possible for debt to rise at a faster pace than income for a sustained length of time, yet when the exact thing has been happening for the last few years we hear of a successful economy.
At some point this has to stop and spending has to come down to levels that are comparable with incomes.
The longer it goes on the worse things will be when it finally does come to an end.
Mervyn King has always been one to say about taking small measures to prevent more drastic action, but this hasn't been done with consumer debt.

If we don't get a recession now we could end up with debt increasing for another few years and then having the mother of all depressions - I think this is why some people consider a recession not to be a bad thing at the moment.
Click to expand...

To correct that doesn't require a recession, only a slowdown, a managed bump if you will.

I don't disagree about the debt driven spending, I disagree about the appropriate remedy.
 
Dolph said:
To correct that doesn't require a recession, only a slowdown, a managed bump if you will.

I don't disagree about the debt driven spending, I disagree about the appropriate remedy.
Click to expand...

I saw a statistic somewhere that compared growth of the economy with the growth of debt.
Basically without the growth in debt we have had the economy would have contracted, so if we want to get debt back to more realistic long term levels we would pretty much have to push the economy into recession.

I don't have the details to hand at the moment, but will try and dig them out at some point.
 
Well a shock move by the US Treasury to cut rates by three quarters of a percent, but I'm not sure it will happen. It looks inevitable now.
 
Berserker said:
So then, the Fed blinked.

Whether it'll work, I doubt, but we'll see I guess.
Click to expand...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.7% in early trading while the technology-based Nasdaq fell 5.0%.

European share indexes shot up on news of the cut, but then fell back again, with the FTSE down 0.3%, the Dax down 2.3% and the Cac 40 in Paris down 1.2%.

There is concern that the dramatic rate cut may be seen as a sign of panic.
Click to expand...
 
Investors, CEOs, Share traders are all a waste of ******* space.

Time and time again they get greedy and everything just falls back down and starts again.
 
Having said what I said I am generally of Dolph's way of thinking. I think the government will do pretty much anything they can to prevent a recession so they can't be blamed for it. Northern Rock is a classic example of them pulling all the stops so they don't lose face over one facet that has spectacularly reached the public eye, fuelled by the press.

But it's all interesting watching the financial markets at the moment and what's going to happen. I have been through one recession in my life but this is the first one I am financially involved in.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom