FA Cup 5th Round *Spoilers*
- Thread starter Ripper
- Start date
Come on....
Not just Chelsea. Liverpool too.
I wasnt going to rub that in - but heyyyyy why not
Lol, no it isn't. You just said yourself, the odds are only about 1100/1, which might be unlikely, but it's hardly anything close to impossible.
Come on, you've had some bad luck, but there's no conspiracy there. Do you realise how much of a scandal it would be if the FA were biased against you? They'd be insane to try such a thing, and it would take too many people involved for someone not to find out.
Anyway, if the FA was so against you, they'd tell the refs to stop giving you penalties at home all the time.
Go watch Derren Brown - The System.
He picks out a chain of events correctly, which total 14.8million to one, based on horse racing originally, and one side event. It's hard to explain what he does, but even he said "it's not impossible, just highly unlikely".
Things like this happen. I don't see you complaining that you draw the same team in the 3rd round every year.. I've got a right to whinge about it, but you can't call it fixed, it's just not possible. I would suggest they used a lottery machine in the future, to ensure its randomness.
I said a single event happening 11 times in a row was 1100 to one, now include the odds Chelsea (and Liverpool) get lower league opponants more often than not and that increases even further
Actually not true - there are several ways they could do it , heated or magnetized balls just being two
Anyway, if the FA was so against you, they'd tell the refs to stop giving you penalties at home all the time.
We actuallly get a lot fewer penalties than we deserve, or rather a lot of penalties that have been given to other teams in the same situation arent given to us
This is 100% right. One thing people forget is Man Utd are a team that run into the box as opposed to launch it in like the majority of teams, therefore it's more likely a player will be tripped or knocked off the ball.
Carry on.
I was joking back! Grrr.
The problem with trying to calculate the odds of MU drawing 11 Prem teams in a row is that, well, you actually cannot do so precisely. Why? Let me explain:
The probability of a drawing a Premiership team in any given round is equal to the number of other Premiership teams playing in that round, divided by the total number of other teams. I think that much is obvious to everyone.
The problem is, we don't always know how many Premiership teams there will be in a given round at the time the draw is made. Consider the Quarterfinals this year:
KNOWN: The number of teams playing in the quarterfinals, excluding MU, is seven
UNKNOWN: The number of Premiership teams playing in the quarterfinals, excluding MU. All we know is that it will be either 2 or 3, depending on the result of Middlesbrough's 5th round replay.
Herein the problem lies. It is impossible to calculate the probability precisely. We can say that it will be either 2/7 or 3/7. But we have no proven mechanism for determining which. There is no way of knowing the precise likelihood of Boro qualifying for the quarterfinals. Sure, we could try and say they have a 50% chance. But that is just a figure based on the assumption that both Boro and Sheffield United have an equal chance of victory - something which is not a known mathematical quantity, it doesn't take into account the real world of football.
The probability of a drawing a Premiership team in any given round is equal to the number of other Premiership teams playing in that round, divided by the total number of other teams. I think that much is obvious to everyone.
The problem is, we don't always know how many Premiership teams there will be in a given round at the time the draw is made. Consider the Quarterfinals this year:
KNOWN: The number of teams playing in the quarterfinals, excluding MU, is seven
UNKNOWN: The number of Premiership teams playing in the quarterfinals, excluding MU. All we know is that it will be either 2 or 3, depending on the result of Middlesbrough's 5th round replay.
Herein the problem lies. It is impossible to calculate the probability precisely. We can say that it will be either 2/7 or 3/7. But we have no proven mechanism for determining which. There is no way of knowing the precise likelihood of Boro qualifying for the quarterfinals. Sure, we could try and say they have a 50% chance. But that is just a figure based on the assumption that both Boro and Sheffield United have an equal chance of victory - something which is not a known mathematical quantity, it doesn't take into account the real world of football.