House prices..
- Thread starter fendi
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uk property house inflation , hardly ever in the negative
It's not in accordance with the prophecy, so expect it to be ignored....
Soldato
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How can repossesions have nothing to do with houses prices. Interest rates rose, people could not afford the repayments and could not sell them because of negative equity. Therefore they were reposessed by the lender.
How can that have nothing to do with prices?
you said my words were ridiculous based on "real" prices , a definition which you introduced and I never mentioned, this really is not on
Reposessions are caused by inability to pay, which is not reflected in house prices. Otherwise we'd have had zero repossessions over the last 10 years using your logic (positive equity means they'll have just been sold).
You've also totally neglected the unemployment factor, which was the primary driver of repossessions in the early 90's when many companies went bust.
How is this? Prices in the last year have risen, not fallen. Unless someone bought in october or novemeber on 100% mortgage, the chance of being in negative equity is very small indeed....
Mine is government data , his is from one building society , the "adjusted RPI" one can be ignored as I never argued that accounting for inflation prices had fallen, though the "ridiculous" comment implies that I did
Soldato
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If it was as easy as you make out why didn't people simply sell.
Repossessions over the last ten years are mainly due to people securing loans against their properties that often go above it's market value. Remember Northern Rock heavily pushed it's 125% mortgage.
No I didn't - we covered this, see above. I based it on you saying that prices didn't fall most areas in the 90's which is wrong and that you think prices are an important thing to be thinking about.
What's your point? That house prices didn't fall in most places in the 90s?
The 20.1% is UK average house price peak in Q3'89 of £62,782 to the trough in Q1'92 of £50,128. If you want to ignore the Q3 and Q4 '89 drops and start counting at Q1'90 then the drop is 16% "in the nineties". But when the drop started in Q3'89 it seems silly to start counting in Q1'90 – is starting to measure the fall “when the falls started” cherrypicking?
The fact you and Rotty seem to be having difficulty with is that in most places prices fell in the nineties. Will you now concede that point?
But Northern Rock haven't been heavily plagued by defaults...
It seems you are implying that repossessions are a function of house prices, this is simply not correct.
I gve up, if you can't see why your semi abusive comment was incorrect then I am wasting my breath here
What's your point? That house prices didn't fall in most places in the 90s?
The 20.1% is UK average house price peak in Q3'89 of £62,782 to the trough in Q1'92 of £50,128. If you want to ignore the Q3 and Q4 '89 drops and start counting at Q1'90 then the drop is 16% "in the nineties". But when the drop started in Q3'89 it seems silly to start counting in Q1'90 – is starting to measure the fall “when the falls started” cherrypicking?
The fact you and Rotty seem to be having difficulty with is that in most places prices fell in the nineties. Will you now concede that point?
The price of property sold in most places fell, but without a more detailed breakdown of whether there was a shift in the type of properties sold (such as the market being flooded by flats, which certainly did happen) it doesn't really answer the question.
Well, I’ve got to get on with my life. In summary:
Rotty claimed
But in reality this is what happened. Prices fell in all regions except Scotland (flat) and Northern Ireland.
NORTH -12%
YORKS & HSIDE -28%
NORTH WEST -12%
EAST MIDS -23%
WEST MIDS -14%
EAST ANGLIA -36%
OUTER S EAST -35%
OUTER MET -31%
LONDON -32%
SOUTH WEST -28%
WALES -17%
In average (including the rise in Northen Ireland) UK house prices fell 20.1%. Percentages are peak to trough falls.
Strangly Dolph and Rotty haven’t backed down and appear to maintain that:
EDIT: Ah! Dolph has seen the light:
Rotty claimed
Dolph agreed
But in reality this is what happened. Prices fell in all regions except Scotland (flat) and Northern Ireland.
NORTH -12%
YORKS & HSIDE -28%
NORTH WEST -12%
EAST MIDS -23%
WEST MIDS -14%
EAST ANGLIA -36%
OUTER S EAST -35%
OUTER MET -31%
LONDON -32%
SOUTH WEST -28%
WALES -17%
In average (including the rise in Northen Ireland) UK house prices fell 20.1%. Percentages are peak to trough falls.
Strangly Dolph and Rotty haven’t backed down and appear to maintain that:
EDIT: Ah! Dolph has seen the light:
Well done that man.
clv101's data indicates to me that most areas did experience falls in average house prices during at least parts of the 90s. As pointed out however, this data comes only from one source (Nationwide).
Whether or not these falls were caused by a change in the type of housing on the market isn't really relevant to this argument, which is dealing purely in figures (not drawing conclusions from them).
Where these falls significant? Open to debate, but again, it only needs to be a fall to prove his statement, regardless of whether it's 5%, 10% or 30%.
Of course, if you look at a very fine resolution there are often falls at other times, for example it looks like several areas had a short-lived drop in late 2003/early 2004 or something like that.
Whether or not these falls were caused by a change in the type of housing on the market isn't really relevant to this argument, which is dealing purely in figures (not drawing conclusions from them).
Where these falls significant? Open to debate, but again, it only needs to be a fall to prove his statement, regardless of whether it's 5%, 10% or 30%.
Of course, if you look at a very fine resolution there are often falls at other times, for example it looks like several areas had a short-lived drop in late 2003/early 2004 or something like that.
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Soldato
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http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/this_britain/article3350919.ece
Looks like the Nationwide expects falls virtually everywhere but London.
All the indications apparently point towars a recession according to economist.
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/this_britain/article3350908.ece
Looks like the Nationwide expects falls virtually everywhere but London.
All the indications apparently point towars a recession according to economist.
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/this_britain/article3350908.ece
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Soldato
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Looks like it's gonna be a tough few years ahead for the majority of people and families in the UK. But it's just part of the cycle - the trick is to ride out the lows, and try to not overspend during the highs - but that's easier said than done.
No doubt people on here will still try and convince themselves there's nothing wrong & house prices aren't an issue we should worry about - even though the simple cost of houses in the UK has a knock on effect on most things eventually. And yes, most people do realise it's just a correction, and the house price will creep up again.... but it still doesn't get away from the fact that most families coming out of a 4.6% fixed rate on £180,000 will be paying close to £300 a month more now for the same thing (on top of that extra £1200 a year for food and enery bills)
And if another person states 'we are just talking ourselves into problems'....... well, what a load of rubbish if ever I heard it - I still don't know where that ridiculous thinking came from. Maybe if we all stated talking positive and saying the economy is perfect, then everything will turn out OK......If only.
No doubt people on here will still try and convince themselves there's nothing wrong & house prices aren't an issue we should worry about - even though the simple cost of houses in the UK has a knock on effect on most things eventually. And yes, most people do realise it's just a correction, and the house price will creep up again.... but it still doesn't get away from the fact that most families coming out of a 4.6% fixed rate on £180,000 will be paying close to £300 a month more now for the same thing (on top of that extra £1200 a year for food and enery bills)
And if another person states 'we are just talking ourselves into problems'....... well, what a load of rubbish if ever I heard it - I still don't know where that ridiculous thinking came from. Maybe if we all stated talking positive and saying the economy is perfect, then everything will turn out OK......If only.
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Wow ... the figures from Halifax are incredibly worrying!! .... a 1% fall is a lot, but 2.5% in one month is CRASH speed. In the West Midlands last month it was nearer 5%!
Anyone who bought 6 months ago might very well be stuck in 5-20 thousand pounds worth of negative equity, should they be forced to sell or move on.
I just hope people start making sure their houses are in order, pardon the pun. Even if it IS over in a short period of time, people need to make very sure they can weather any storms.... small or large.
Anyone who bought 6 months ago might very well be stuck in 5-20 thousand pounds worth of negative equity, should they be forced to sell or move on.
I just hope people start making sure their houses are in order, pardon the pun. Even if it IS over in a short period of time, people need to make very sure they can weather any storms.... small or large.