House prices..

Stinky · 21 May 2008 at 12:53

Andrew_McP said:
Go on then, tell us how many properties your agency sold last month, and how does that compare to this time last year?

You are our canary in the coal mine, so sing for your seed.

Andrew McP... old enough to have seen the last crash, and now seeing all the pieces fit into place for the next one. These things take years though, not days, and we've only just got started.

this will shock you then, the office i worked in (same company) this time last year has sold more last month than the same time last year! like i said above around here its all over the place!

[TR]SweetSpotOz · 21 May 2008 at 12:59

Stinky · 21 May 2008 at 13:19

markyp23 said:
That's ridiculous though.

Selling 4 in April 2008 isn't that signficant compared to selling 3 in April 2007. We need figures if you are going to try and give statistics.

11 in April 2007

15 in April 2008

Andrew_McP · 21 May 2008 at 13:26

Stinky said:
11 in April 2007

15 in April 2008

That's genuinely interesting. All over the country EAs are getting laid off and sales are dropping off a cliff. But you seem to be bucking the trend. Congratulations... maybe you'll get to keep your job longer than most! :-)

It's still hard to ignore the trend as set out on sites like this though...
http://www.rics.org/Practiceareas/Property/Residential/Market/market_surveys.htm

Andrew McP

Stinky · 21 May 2008 at 13:30

Andrew_McP said:
That's genuinely interesting. All over the country EAs are getting laid off and sales are dropping off a cliff. But you seem to be bucking the trend. Congratulations... maybe you'll get to keep your job longer than most!

It's still hard to ignore the trend as set out on sites like this though...
http://www.rics.org/Practiceareas/Property/Residential/Market/market_surveys.htm

Andrew McP

like has been said in a lot of thread here recently, everything is generalised. everyone being tarred with the same brush! as i have proved its not always the case, and this is why i refuse to just belive everything the media seem to think is true! hopefully i will end up being right in the long run but only time will tell

clv101 · 21 May 2008 at 14:11

Stinky said:
hopefully i will end up being right in the long run but only time will tell

Right about what? You stil haven't said what you expect to happen. What do you expect the UK house market to do in 2008. We're almost halfwauy through the year now so it isn't too much of an ask is it?

Stinky · 21 May 2008 at 14:14

clv101 said:
Right about what? You stil haven't said what you expect to happen. What do you expect the UK house market to do in 2008. We're almost halfwauy through the year now so it isn't too much of an ask is it?

i have said a few post before that i do not expect a large decline! did you miss that one??

no need to start getting anal

Stinky · 21 May 2008 at 14:15

Stinky said:
im not expecting it to be anywhere near as bad as a lot of people on here are making out

Stinky said:
latest i have read is a fall of 40% is prodicted!

i do not see a 40% decline! and prices have not dropped much at the moment! well not around this area no!

[/QUOTE]

maybe it wasnt clear! but i what i ment with these to post where that i do not see there being a huge decline that is expected!

Yes it will drop slightly, it already has, but once the media finally shut up about it then it will be fine!! being in the office i noticed that when nothing was said for a week end of last month, business picked up. now its dead again.... proves how much influence the media has one the housing market!

clv101 · 21 May 2008 at 14:18

So your forecast for 2008 is "slightly down"? What's that 5% (nominal)? Is that a fair assessment? Oh and I don't think anyone is suggesting 40% in 2008! Maybe 40% down over the complete peak to trough cycle over several years though.

Stinky · 21 May 2008 at 14:23

clv101 said:
So your forecast for 2008 is "slightly down"? What's that 5% (nominal)? Is that a fair assessment? Oh and I don't think anyone is suggesting 40% in 2008! Maybe 40% down over the complete peak to trough cycle over several years though.

again i think its goign to be different in different areas. and i am only saying that i think for this area! prices here have not dropped as much as in places such as reading for example!

i am expecting a small decline! but nothing to Catastrophic - if the media shut up! they are scaring people into not doing anything!! there is still plenty of people looking!

clv101 · 21 May 2008 at 14:26

Okay, so you're only taking about North Devon? And a small decline is what, 5%? 10%? One man's small is another man's large which is why we have to use numbers.

Over the whole of the UK, the average market, do you have any opinion or not?

Sagalout · 21 May 2008 at 14:32

Even 5% is nice. £10k off a £200k house is great for first time buyers

. Not so great if you bought last year though and just seen your deposit wiped out (on paper)

Stinky · 21 May 2008 at 14:37

clv101 said:
Okay, so you're only taking about North Devon? And a small decline is what, 5%? 10%? One man's small is another man's large which is why we have to use numbers.

Over the whole of the UK, the average market, do you have any opinion or not?

i will post in some more detail later on. so i reserve this spot

but generally within the UK on avarage, i think there will be a decline of 10% - 15% however around here (Devon and Cornwall) i dont think there will be a drop of any more than 7/8%

everything we currently have on the market, if we took 10% off right now, they would sell! but they would sell under value, which is not our job!"

Well Splattered · 21 May 2008 at 14:40

I just dropped my house by 15% under the valued amount in a hope it sells. Two viewers today so i hope i get an offer

Stinky · 21 May 2008 at 14:44

Well Splattered said:
I just dropped my house by 15% under the valued amount in a hope it sells. Two viewers today so i hope i get an offer

has the effect that you where aiming for.

but obviously taking a gamble on the market. hope it works out either way

clv101 · 21 May 2008 at 14:54

Stinky said:
but generally within the UK on avarage, i think there will be a decline of 10% - 15% however around here (Devon and Cornwall) i dont think there will be a drop of any more than 7/8%

Wow, you're more of a "doomer" than me! I only think the UK average will fall 10% in 2008. Also note that a 10% annual fall is a faster rate of fall than any year in the 89-94 crash. Anyone predicting a 10% fall this year is predicting the fastest house price crash this country has seen in decades if not ever.

Stinky · 21 May 2008 at 14:57

clv101 said:
Wow, you're more of a "doomer" than me! I only think the UK average will fall 10% in 2008. Also note that a 10% annual fall is a faster rate of fall than any year in the 89-94 crash. Anyone predicting a 10% fall this year is predicting the fastest house price crash this country has seen in decades if not ever.

i say that, but i do not see it going further, i belive that it will pick up again quickly!

so we are predicting the same level! i must stress though. if the media shut up! then i belive there will be a minimal fall of only a couple of % 5% max!!

i do put it all down to media pressure, only reason i feel that is due to seeing the effects first hand!

Sagalout · 21 May 2008 at 15:34

Stinky said:
i say that, but i do not see it going further, i belive that it will pick up again quickly!

How will it pick up again quickly? We are currently in a situation where a lot of first time buyers cannot get and/or afford a mortgage due to the high prices. Without first time buyers people cant sell their own houses to climb up the ladder. Previously this hole was filled by BTL, but now the prices have increased to the level that BTL isn't paying a profit, and often cant even cover the mortgage borrowing never mind all the other letting costs. Couple that with rising petrol, food and energy prices (ie things that people need and cant really cut back on) and theres only one way hosue prices are heading for the foreseeable future.

After 4 years saving we've got our deposit together and were going to buy later this year (august) but theres no way we'd do it now, and in fact have just signed up for another years rent (at £400 a month cheaper than the mortgage would be). We'll look at the situation next year, and I suspect many other would-be buyers will be doing the same.

Stinky · 21 May 2008 at 15:41

But you say that. and a lot of FTB are still out there (again i say that for this area as we have afew deals going through at the moment that are FTB.

Money is still cheap compared to what it was when there was last a price crash. Back in 90 when it last went pete tong interest rates where close to 15% i belive. so comparing the state of interest rates now to then there is a big difference.

i am good mates with a FA who is not having to much trouble saucing morgages are the moment!

i dont mean to sound arrogent or ignorant with this, but have you seen any proof of what you are writing about without using media speculation? Yes, i agree that fuel prices are on the up and this will slow things down, but shopping around for utilities such as gas and electric etc can work out cheaper than it has been in the last few years - IF you look around!

im hoping that what i have said doesnt make me sound like a **** but its hard to put your opion across without doing it

no offense ment

Hawk Tuah · 21 May 2008 at 16:09

To me it is all media rubbish.

Property agents are over valueing properties. So its no surprise that people are having to sell for less than what their agent has led them to beleive their property is for. Its well known that an agent around here always over values the houses they sell. They do it because it gets them more business. If you go round and value a house as being worth more than the other agents, then you'll probably get the job of selling it.

Who here has actually LOST money on a property. I dont mean selling it for less than a property agent has 'guestimated' the value at. I'm guessing no one.