Both BEFORE and after the bombings the country knew it had lost and they didn't want a long term bloody land invasion either, why would they? Offering surrender before the bombs, so they obviously 100% knew they would lose and didn't want mass casualties on their homeland, means the situation bar a couple hundred thousand people, hadn't actually changed, for them.
They'd never surrender, except they offered, and did after the bombs, so that theory is useless.
Their soldiers wouldn't surrender, except they offered, and did.
Well, personally, i think all your arguments against them being unwilling to surrender, are great, however, history, the facts, and the facts and the history say thats a 100% wrong assumption.
Japan did offer surrender but on its own terms which were unacceptable to the allies. Attempts were made to negotiate via the russians right upto Augut the 2nd before the first atomic device was used. Japan would not accept unconditional surrender of its armed forces as declared in part of the Potsdam declaration on the 26th of July 1945.
On July 26, the United States, Britain, and China released the Potsdam Declaration, announcing the terms for Japan's surrender, with the warning, "We will not deviate from them. There are no alternatives. We shall brook no delay."
the elimination "for all time [of] the authority and influence of those who have deceived and misled the people of Japan into embarking on world conquest"
the occupation of "points in Japanese territory to be designated by the Allies"
"Japanese sovereignty shall be limited to the islands of Honshū, Hokkaidō, Kyūshū, Shikoku and such minor islands as we determine." As had been announced in the Cairo Declaration in 1943, Japan was to be stripped of her pre-war empire, including Korea and Taiwan, as well as all her recent conquests.
"The Japanese military forces shall be completely disarmed"
"stern justice shall be meted out to all war criminals, including those who have visited cruelties upon our prisoners"
But on the other hand,
"We do not intend that the Japanese shall be enslaved as a race or destroyed as a nation, ... The Japanese Government shall remove all obstacles to the revival and strengthening of democratic tendencies among the Japanese people. Freedom of speech, of religion, and of thought, as well as respect for the fundamental human rights shall be established."
"Japan shall be permitted to maintain such industries as will sustain her economy and permit the exaction of just reparations in kind, ... Japanese participation in world trade relations shall be permitted."
"The occupying forces of the Allies shall be withdrawn from Japan as soon as these objectives have been accomplished and there has been established in accordance with the freely expressed will of the Japanese people a peacefully inclined and responsible government.
The only mention of "unconditional surrender" came at the end:
"We call upon the government of Japan to proclaim now the unconditional surrender of all Japanese armed forces, and to provide proper and adequate assurances of their good faith in such action. The alternative for Japan is prompt and utter destruction."
The declaration an opertunity for surrender before the destruction of the entire Japanese nation was treated with contempt and ignored with the resolution that Japan would continue with the war until totally defeated. So if you claim Japan was willing to surrender under allied terms this is wrong. Japan would only surrender under her own terms which was not acceptable to the allies.
Surrender happened after the nuclear attacks for the following reasons stated by the emperor in a broadcast to the Japanses nation.
"... Despite the best that has been done by everyone — the gallant fighting of the military and naval forces, the diligence and assiduity of Our servants of the State, and the devoted service of Our one hundred million people — the war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan's advantage, while the general trends of the world have all turned against her interest.
Moreover, the enemy has begun to employ a new and most cruel bomb, the power of which to do damage is, indeed, incalculable, taking the toll of many innocent lives. Should we continue to fight, not only would it result in an ultimate collapse and obliteration of the Japanese nation, but also it would lead to the total extinction of human civilization.
Such being the case, how are We to save the millions of Our subjects, or to atone Ourselves before the hallowed spirits of Our Imperial Ancestors? This is the reason why We have ordered the acceptance of the provisions of the Joint Declaration of the Powers.
...
Even after acceptance of the terms of surrender some high ranking Japanese officers attempted a coup to try and gain military control and continue the war.