In a hugely surprising move, the Bank of England today cut official interest rates by 150bps, the largest move in interest rates since Sep 17th 1992 and the ERM crisis and the pound's exit from the ERM system. The decision was a bold move by the committee and reflects a front loading of rate cuts that undoubtedly would have been sanctioned by the committee over the coming months in any case. This now buys the MPC some time, with risks remaining that the committee will have to cut by more in coming months, but probably not for the next 3 months at least (taking us through to the next Inflation Report).
How should the markets react? Swap rates will continue to fall sharply at the front end (probably a further 50bps over the next few weeks), since they will price in the risk that interest rates will have to fall to 2% in order to kick start economic growth in the UK. Furthermore, deposit rates will also drop sharply, reflecting a rush to deposit by investors, since the ship on high deposit rates is rapidly sailing.
For the FX markets we think that the decision to cut interest rates aggressively is actually a good one, since it could shorten the length of time that the UK spends in recession. Therefore, we would not be surprised if GBP/USD, GBP/EUR and GBP/JPY rally from here. Watch out for a push up towards $1.61, €1.25 and ¥160 over the remainder of this session and into Friday.
All in all, this move is decisive, it is what the UK economy needed, and hopefully the markets will realise that the Bank of England are just adjusting interest rates to an appropriate level. Christmas may not be so bad after all.