US dollar exchange rate forecast - more gloom

Greebo · 9 Dec 2008 at 15:25

Just received the lastest us/uk exchange rate forecast for the next year based on recent events.

Forecasted to drop to $1.25:£1 in 6 months :eek:

That means unless there are price cuts, computer stuff will be 20% more expensive in 6 months time.

eg cheapest GTX280 will be £360 (up £60) and cheapest i7 will be £288 (up £42)

Almost as depressing, is that fact that you will almost end up with a straight swap for euros when you go holiday next year

FX and Interest rate forecasts

Current +1m +3m +6m +9m +12m
GBP/USD 1.501 1.470 1.320 1.250 1.360 1.360
GBP/EUR 1.165 1.148 1.082 1.087 1.115 1.088

apeZ · 9 Dec 2008 at 15:26

Not looking good.

eXor · 9 Dec 2008 at 15:27

Forecast link?

I doubt it will go that low.

MooMoo444 · 9 Dec 2008 at 15:28

Crazy :<

willhub · 9 Dec 2008 at 15:29

So at the moment the pound is worth more than the dollar which is has been for years but it's going to get to the point where the dollar is worth more than the pound?

VeNT · 9 Dec 2008 at 15:30

almost.

MookJong · 9 Dec 2008 at 15:31

Unfortunatly the party is over for the moment and it's back to reality.

Mik3 · 9 Dec 2008 at 15:32

Great for us that get payed in dollars, although my server costs have rocketed.

daz · 9 Dec 2008 at 15:32

A slightly devalued pound isn't the worst thing in the world, as long as it doesn't go into complete free-fall.

Masterdog · 9 Dec 2008 at 15:34

It'll certainly help our exporters so it's swings and roundabouts. One could argue the pound has been 'too' strong for a long time.

Greebo · 9 Dec 2008 at 15:35

It gets sent to me as a pdf file. Can I host it somewhere?

It's about 10 pages of in depth analysis.

Last month's only forecast $1.41:£1 but a lot has changed in a month.

bledd · 9 Dec 2008 at 15:35

the £/€ is what bothers me most, beer abroad will suck

£/$ annoys me too, prices on steam not so sexy

Cosimo · 9 Dec 2008 at 15:36

The pound/euro exchange rate isn’t exactly very hot at the moment. When will we see parity?

eXor · 9 Dec 2008 at 15:39

simulatorman said:
When will we see parity?

One second, I will consult my crystal ball...

Cosimo · 9 Dec 2008 at 15:43

eXor said:
One second, I will consult my crystal ball...

We should ask Gordo, he’s got two of them.

JohnnyG · 9 Dec 2008 at 15:43

bledd. said:
the £/€ is what bothers me most, beer abroad will suck

We were paying €5 per bottle of Magners in Ballybunion last year and that was bad enough then

Rich_L · 9 Dec 2008 at 15:45

To be honest, anything beyond a 3-month forecast tops seems pretty useless - who knows what the next big bit of news will be - what if the US auto industry completely collapses, for example, or another big bank goes down the pan?

It's crazy times at the moment after al!

lewism · 9 Dec 2008 at 15:46

Think im going to buy my dollars for my holiday next year now.

Greebo · 9 Dec 2008 at 15:49

simulatorman said:
The pound/euro exchange rate isn’t exactly very hot at the moment. When will we see parity?

You have to remember the rates I have posted above are money market rates and not what you will get as a tourist exchange rate which will be poorer.

As you can see, it is forecast to be £1.082/euro in 3 months. There is a very good chance that the tourist exchange will indeed be a straight swap at some places.

Greebo · 9 Dec 2008 at 15:51

Rich_L said:
To be honest, anything beyond a 3-month forecast tops seems pretty useless - who knows what the next big bit of news will be - what if the US auto industry completely collapses, for example, or another big bank goes down the pan?

It's crazy times at the moment after al!

Very valid point. As I stated, last months forecast showed the worst exchange to be $1.41. The events of the last month has changed it.

Of course, things could happen which puts it back up to $1.5:£1. Equally, other currently unforessen events could make it drop to $1:£1.