We can, however, make some assessment of the probability of it existing.
Not without assumptions you can't. Even base level assumptions such as what we observe is objective reality (ie we observe the mind independant universe) are still assumptions. You can argue that those assumptions are sensible, or that they seem obvious, or even that they have to be in place in order to enable useful conclusions, but they are still unprovable. (This is the scientific instrumentalist vs scientific realist debate).
If you truly follow the argument that you and others are making, you cannot say that anything is unlikely to exist unless you can absolutely prove its non-existence...and how would you do so for anything? For anything that is untestable, you must either think that there is an equal chance of its existence and its non-existence or completely dismiss any consideration about the question of its existence.
I'd go with the latter, the consideration of whether something that is untestable exists or not is, largely, irrelevant to most things, apart from personal opinion, and personal opinion can be formed around non-transferable evidence quite happily.
Even something I make up right now, e.g. that the supreme creator of all things and the One True God of humanity is called Bing! (note the exclamation mark - it's very important), is a 17-legged spider and currently lives on top of the door frame of my bedroom. Not that you could see Bing! even if you were here, or detect Bing! using any equipment or the senses of any animal.
If you want to believe that, that's your choice, I'm quite happy to ignore their existance or non-existance unless they start to influence my life directly
You cannot prove any of those statements false, therefore you have to think of them in exactly the same way as you think of Christianity and every other religion that exists, existed in the past or will exist in the future. As well as the undetectable mastadon that lives underneath my kitchen sink, of course.
You can't prove the assumptions of science to be universe accurate either, that doesn't rob them of their utility in predictive modelling. Whether the statement can be proven true or false does not necessarily have any bearing on it's utility.
If someone starts talking about religion as if it's true, you have every right to point out why their arguments are flawed and their assumptions based on nothing more than fairy stories.
I agree, but I'd extend that to atheists claiming that science is universe accurate and demonstrate something other than predictive accuracy to support their views. In fact that the argument I regularly make.
It's only outside the realms of science because that's what the religions say.
No, it's outside the realms of science because the answer to the question isn't a predictive model. When the answer to a question isn't a predictive model, science cannot be used to evaluate it, as all it's assumptions are geared to that purpose. And that's without getting into the objective observation point I raised above.
If you found scientific proof of god tomorrow, would all the religions turn round and say "no, we don't need that, we have faith" or would they be plastering it all over the world above the words "WE WERE RIGHT, JOIN OR BURN IN HELL"?
I would imagine that would largely depend on the religion concerned. Remember, religion != christianity.
I can't imagine that the atheists would have wanted a "there's definitely no god" advert because, as mentioned above, that's a belief position that requires (almost) as much faith as what they're arguing against.
They wanted almost certainly, which is still a faith based position. Just because the assumptions that the faith is placed in seem obvious and make sense to atheists is largely irrelevant. Most theists think their beliefs are obvious and make sense to them too.
Yes you can, that's the point of probability. You can make a reasonable guess without having enough proof to make a conclusion.
Only if you know what the evidence is likely to be, otherwise it just says what assumptions you hold about the world to be true.
If there were no believers, the non-believers wouldn't be affected at all by the sensually undetectable creature that you worship
If everyone just accepted their beliefs or disbeliefs are equally unprovable, then neither side would be affected by the other.
Unfortunately, they DO have power. So in your ideal world, religion may not be a problem, but in the world we actually live in, people can become important decision makers or get preferential opinions on public consultations simply because they happen to believe (some of) what's written in a 2000 year old book.
That's democracy for you. It's one of the reasons why I advocate being able to legislate on a proven harm basis only.
How is this in any way socially sensible?
It's no more or less sensible than any opinion, as opposed to fact based, government. Religion itself isn't the problem here, allowing opinion into lawmaking generally is.
Well that's still pretty lose. All christians are atheists about most gods. If you ask them if Zeus exists, they'll say no.
Etc.
Atheism is derived from Atheos, which translates as Godless. A christian cannot be an atheist about other gods apart from their own, because atheism is a term referring to disbelief or denial of deities full stop. You can't be atheist and theist at the same time.