Horseracing Betting. Laying the favourites.

Johnnytoxic

Johnnytoxic

Johnnytoxic

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I've recently started betting on horses. Not picking the winner but picking the favourite as a loser.

I download the statistics each day and compare many things to try and find an alternative horse that can win the race or whether the favourite has statistics running against it.

Anyone else had experience betting this way? Am I going to lose in the long run?
 
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Easy way to double the size of your wad when betting is to fold your money in half and put it back in your pocket. Only bookies win the long run!
 
wasn't there a thread about a guy onlline who done this and made millions off it?

I realise there was a lot more to it than this, as he played the bookie himself, but yea, it's smarter to do it that way than bet the favourite to win ;)
 
d_brennen said:
Easy way to double the size of your wad when betting is to fold your money in half and put it back in your pocket. Only bookies win the long run!
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That's because bookies "make a book". If you're good at hedging, you can do something similar yourself.
 
Johnnytoxic said:
I download the statistics each day and the race or whether the favourite has statistics running against it. Am I going to lose in the long run?
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I'm a football guy, I don't touch the temperamental nags. :p

You'd do well to backtest your strategy. Betfair have odds data going back years. Available to download once your points balance is over 100. Give pre-race trading a go, as well. You may be good at it.

http://data.betfair.com/
 
eXor said:
I'm a football guy, I don't touch the temperamental nags. :p

You'd do well to backtest your strategy. Betfair have odds data going back years. Available to download once your points balance is over 100. Give pre-race trading a go, as well. You may be good at it.

http://data.betfair.com/
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Nice idea!

Only online betting I've ever done is bonus betting/laying, but still an easy £500 when you're a student.
 
to all intents and purposes the Op is becoming the bookie so in the long run he should win.

But you will need a good starting fund as there is a chance the first 10 races the favourite might win them all and clean you out!
 
Greebo said:
to all intents and purposes the Op is becoming the bookie so in the long run he should win.
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Not necessarily. It depends what odds the OP is able to lay bets at. Those who lay bets at a betting exchange like Betfair will generally have to lay bets at higher odds than can be found at a bookmaker (not always, but mostly). Thus it becomes a question of whether this difference erodes the edge that a bookmaker would normally have. As to whether it does I do not know.

The only way to make money betting (laying or backing bets) as a general punter is to consistently have knowledge about the event/market that the general market does not, or of course be very lucky! I think the person some people have referred to who made millions had both.
 
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John_V85 said:
The only way to make money betting (laying or backing bets) as a general punter is to consistently have knowledge about the event/market that the general market does not, or of course be very lucky! I think the person some people have referred to who made millions had both.
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Betfair commented on that story themselves the following day. They'd never even heard of him, and the entire story in the newspaper was a load of rubbish.
 
I know a chap who did/does this, he's made a fortune out of it.

Has got houses in a few countries and a garage full of cars to die for.
 
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