I didnt mention changing house prices at all, you were trying to differentiate between the market value for a property and the value you attach to it, saying that the one you attach to it is the "real" value, I was saying you were wrong.
House prices..
- Thread starter fendi
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Associate
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IMO No. Basic Supply & Demand. Our country is full of old people. There are more old people than young people! They cant live forever. Death rates will increase massivly for the post war 'baby boomers'.
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Agree with this, the new builds are crap, they are thrown up and are not as well built as pre 1980s homes, they tend to command more money but the price and often the land you get with them is crap. A lot of hardwork goes into building them but they are let down by the profit margins and the price of the land paid.
Old people need and want homes to and if demand comes down it will push down the living costs in terms of mortgage payments, thus boast the economy.
Social housing is the biggest mistake, well the lack of under the Labour government. I cant recall any area in Wigan being used to build social housing, only old sites being rebuilt.
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I'm an FTB - and I had my offer accepted on a property yesterday. I feel I've caught a massive bargain, as the amount we've settled on is hideously low comparative to even a year ago
We've bought (well, surveryor and mortgage yet to come) a property that needs ~20/25k spending on it, but will be worth ~40k more once we're done with the refurbishment
Good times!
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I loved it when crack heads buy themselves a house. One more off the streets.
Its not how much its 'worth' its if you can afford it, and the increase in interest rates that is sure to come. Its greed and presuming the price will always rise that causes the crash.
I may start a new thread. Does anyone see the link between the UK 'finding' (Scottish) oil in the 70s and the increase in house prices?
Its not how much its 'worth' its if you can afford it, and the increase in interest rates that is sure to come. Its greed and presuming the price will always rise that causes the crash.
I may start a new thread. Does anyone see the link between the UK 'finding' (Scottish) oil in the 70s and the increase in house prices?
I'm not sure if I share the same view of demographics as you.
People are living longer. As the 'baby boomers' die, they will be replaced by the next generation. Think about it. Most of those baby boomers will have children of their own. The UK population is now around 61.5 million and rising.
Look at this chart: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?ID=6
You can see the baby boomers spike there around the 60 years old mark. But look further down too. By far the largest age group is around 35-50 years old - NOT baby boomers, but more like their children!. Given current life expectancy, most of those have a fair few years left in them yet.
Birth rates are currently on the rise too. Add increased immigration into the mix and I really don't see a sudden drop in the demand for housing on the horizon.
Explain?
A house is a place to live not another bank account. The equity in your house is artificial and can dissapear in a flash. Just ask the guy from the "council house accross the street" thread.
I'm not buying it as an investment - I was simply stating that I've managed to get a bargain
I won't be able to afford to sell it and move for another 25 years
Knowing that I'm going to have a house of my own to do up and live in as I see fit gives me a bigger smile than any profit on the property ever could!
I meant more along the lines of explain why he thinks prices will drop?
30 or so years ago when my parents bought their first house it was for £16k and they had to take a mortgage out then to buy it. Right now £16k isn't a lot of money but then they were paid accordingly as well. Back then it was very hard for them as well, they had to borrow some money off relatives as well to help them with the deposit. The thing is my dad was always sensible with money, he knew what his outgoings were, how much he had to pay others back and only went ahead knowing that he could comfortably pay back the money he has borrowed as well as keeping up his mortgage payments. All extra costs were cut and he made sure he paid everyone back. These days people can't let go of their holidays and other luxuries in life, I do think you are headed down a slippery slope once you start taking more money on your property and using it to fuel your lifestyle. The only time we have ever taken money on the property is so that money can be used to make more money, so by either buying another house or maybe doing up the home in question in order to bump up the price.
You could say that for most things though, I might have £100k worth of shares but news breaks tomorrow the company is on the verge of collapse they might be worth **** all. Over the course of the last few decades more often than not houses have been a safe bet as an investment and more often than not made you money rather than lose you money. As long as you aren't silly I still believe they are fine even as investments. What made things go wrong was all these silly deals and people with dreadful credit records being basically thrown money at, the banks played with fire and got burnt.
What I've found is some people in life have nothing better to do than complain and be jealous and bitter over other people doing well or especially making money. Those people crying for a house price crash will probably find it harder to buy now than in the so called good times so what exactly they are happy about I don't know.
Unemployment continues to rise. Tax rises. Large government budget deficit. Lots of downward pressure on the housing market. I suspect prices will begin to fall again at the end of this year or early next year.
Not really, quite a lot of people on the various forums could probably afford it no problem. They just see the stupidy behind this particular credit fuelled boom.
The number of people I know who explicitly stated house prices would NEVER go down, sheeesh, I run out of hands to count them on. This was certainly the impression that the media appeared to put out, all those silly property programs etc. It was also the impression that other amateur property developers put out.
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The government is simply running out of money. The UK GDP is 70% financial services with $10 trillion in external debt. That is basically where the money came from during the boom time and was completely unsustainable.
The government will either raise taxes, print money or cut spending (lol). Raising taxes will cause even more unemployment as people spend less and revenues fall further. Printing money will keep your house prices high, but eventually you will be paying £15 for a loaf of bread. Cutting spending is what they need to do, but how many people get their income from the government? I would guess about 50% in some way or another.
Also don't forget the effect higher interest rates would have.
A flat that was 50k in 1999 should only be about 65k today not $150k. It should have tracked closely to inflation and wages.
When you have the government spreading the money around instead of the "invisible hand" of a laissez-faire market it will only end in failure like the Soviet Union.
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Not to mention our socialist oil funded economy
No you dont. Its all relevance.
Dont look at the UK, look at the world
UK population is due to grow by 5% by 2025 (including immigration), China and India’s populations are due to grow by 100% by 2025. Who has the most to gain by supply and demand? On a global scale, the demand for UK housing is not keeping up, so you could say it will be shrinking. Relative to the rest of the world.
BTW the vast majority of these 'baby boomers children' you refer to are not likely to have any more children as they already have had children and the children they have had are already counted in the statistics, you cant forecast new births based on nothing.
My point about the baby boomers dying, is the vast majority of them are living in houses far too big for two people with plenty of land, because they own them and have done for a while. They will die, people live longer not indefinitely. A massive number of large homes will come onto the market during the next twenty years (a quiet population growth period) and anyone with a one bed apartment and no land will suffer financially.
Land is worth money. Not the house built on it.
No you dont. Its all relevance.
Dont look at the UK, look at the world
UK population is due to grow by 5% by 2025 (including immigration), China and India’s populations are due to grow by 100% by 2025. Who has the most to gain by supply and demand? On a global scale, the demand for UK housing is not keeping up, so you could say it will be shrinking. Relative to the rest of the world.
BTW the vast majority of these 'baby boomers children' you refer to are not likely to have any more children as they already have had children and the children they have had are already counted in the statistics, you cant forecast new births based on nothing.
My point about the baby boomers dying, is the vast majority of them are living in houses far too big for two people with plenty of land, because they own them and have done for a while. They will die, people live longer not indefinitely. A massive number of large homes will come onto the market during the next twenty years (a quiet population growth period) and anyone with a one bed apartment and no land will suffer financially.
Land is worth money. Not the house built on it.
Dont look at the UK, look at the world
I'm not sure why you're rolling your eyes at me, as you explicitly stated that "Our country is full of old people. There are more old people than young people! They cant live forever. Death rates will increase massivly for the post war 'baby boomers'"
..but the reality is that there aren't actually more old people than young people - 78% of the population are under the age of 60 (2007 data). Slightly subjective term of course, but even if we drop to 50 as being 'old', that's still only a third of the population.
You talk about all these old people dying as if they aren't going to be replaced by new old people. But no. By 2032, it is projected that the number of over 60s will have swelled from 13.3m to 20.3m. These old people are going to need somewhere to live, perhaps in this large houses with plenty of land you mention.
Soldato
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population of the uk is rising afaik
House prices probably should fall if it werent for the decline of the currency they are priced in. The price and worth of just about anything are separate so the worth might fall for many years but the price will rise imo
congrats UV Dont neglect to get a fixed mortgage, so you can plan those refurbishments without outside costs overtaking your original good judgement
House prices probably should fall if it werent for the decline of the currency they are priced in. The price and worth of just about anything are separate so the worth might fall for many years but the price will rise imo
congrats UV Dont neglect to get a fixed mortgage, so you can plan those refurbishments without outside costs overtaking your original good judgement
Annual house price change is no longer negative according to Nationwide figures: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8286028.stm
It remains to be seen how long it will take for prices to get back to 2007 levels though.
It remains to be seen how long it will take for prices to get back to 2007 levels though.
Oh well, that massive house crash they have been predicting since 2001 will finally appear I'm sure.