rage against the x-factor - Outcome: RATM is the Christmas Number One!

djp01 said:
According to the bookies odd's you will be wrong.
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Bookies odds will be based on who is betting what though won't it? So if everyone is betting on RATM because they're caught up in the hype, regardless of actual likelihood of winning the odds will show them heavy favourites... that's how I thought it worked anyway.
 
Kenai said:
Bookies odds will be based on who is betting what though won't it? So if everyone is betting on RATM because they're caught up in the hype, regardless of actual likelihood of winning the odds will show them heavy favourites... that's how I thought it worked anyway.
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Thats not how betting works, they actually have people who work out odds, they have people who watch a lot of football, racing and boxing etc etc, they look at past results, conditions of the pitch etc etc, and asses the probability of an outcome.

With the Christmas No1, it is a bit of fun, but it will mainly be based on sales trends and public attitude.
 
atpbx said:
Thats not how betting works, they actually have people who work out odds, they have people who watch a lot of football, racing and boxing etc etc, they look at past results, conditions of the pitch etc etc, and asses the probability of an outcome.

With the Christmas No1, it is a bit of fun, but it will mainly be based on sales trends and public attitude.
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Kenai said:
Bookies odds will be based on who is betting what though won't it? So if everyone is betting on RATM because they're caught up in the hype, regardless of actual likelihood of winning the odds will show them heavy favourites... that's how I thought it worked anyway.
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Its a mixture of both if I understand correctly. Yes they work out the odds. But they also alter the odds to make sure they get enough money coming in for all sides. To cover the cost of the winner.
 
AcidHell2 said:
Its a mixture of both if I understand correctly. Yes they work out the odds. But they also alter the odds to make sure they get enough money coming in for all sides. To cover the cost of the winner.
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Yes thats how it works, but the odds are set in the first instance as I described, the price then shortens or lengthens depending on how the money goes.

If they get a lot of money coming in for a result, they shorten the odds as public attitude IE where the money is going is saying, thats a good price for what I consider to be a likely outcome, for the bookies if the public think its a good price, then its one of two things, the odds have either been set to look attractive, or have been calculated incorrectly.

For instance, I dont know what the odds were for Fulham beating united 3-0 on saturday, but I bet they were not as short as they should have been.
 
That video is quite good, however whatever Cowell says to the contrary if the reedy voiced elf child doesnt get to no1 his office is going to look like a bomb site crossed with an abattoir.
 
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