Anyone know or have a rough idea of how muc the new Nvidia cards are going to cost. I'm just wondering as I'm in the market for a new card to replace my 9800GT for FSX but can't decide if I should get a GTX285 or a HD5850 or wait for the new range of GTX's.
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Fermi Prices?
- Thread starter Rossdh
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there are no confirmed UK prices yet just speculation.
it may be worth waiting till they arrive supposidly the end of march to see what price they come out at
and to see if the GTX285's and HD5850's drop in price any.
However it wouldn't surprise me if these came in at the £400 mark and then drop down to a more reasonable price once the early adopters have bought thier fill.
it may be worth waiting till they arrive supposidly the end of march to see what price they come out at
and to see if the GTX285's and HD5850's drop in price any.
However it wouldn't surprise me if these came in at the £400 mark and then drop down to a more reasonable price once the early adopters have bought thier fill.
No-one has any real idea, at least not based on any fact. Although that said, I would wager the above to be not too far off the mark.
A lot will depend on the performance of the cards.
I would say that's wishful thinking for an nVidia product, especially one doing as bad a fermi in terms of yields.
There have been rumours of $600 or $650 (can't remember which exactly) for the 480.
$600 = £400+ VAT = £470, then add on the inevitable retailer price gouging and I can see £500 being very likely and £400~ for the GTX470.
I'm not sure what I think of the likelyhood of $600 being true however as I know nVidia has done a lot of stupid things lately, but to price their GTX480 at 50%~ more than a 5870 which looks to be the same performance, is just insane.
About that sounds right
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I can't see them launching with those prices, especially if a 470 is slower than a 5870. I reckon £450 tops for the GTX480 and £330 for the GTX470.
TSMC can make around 9000 wafers a month split between all its 40nm customers. Lets say Nvidia have a 3000 wafer per month allocation and the 2% ish gtx480 yield is true. Nvidia could build 60 gtx480 cards a month. I would expect OcUK to sell more than that in a morning and the people will be stepping on the back of each others necks to buy them. The 5800 supply got very tight with 6000 wafers and 40% yeilds.
The only time Nvidia's RRP ( $699 according to someone from at Nvidia ) will only become relevant is after Fermi has been reworked and the bugs have been fixed.
The only time Nvidia's RRP ( $699 according to someone from at Nvidia ) will only become relevant is after Fermi has been reworked and the bugs have been fixed.
I don't see how you'd get 60 GTX 480 a month if they were building 3000 wafers a month, because each wafer should have around 90 viable GPU dies in total, 2% of which is 1.8 dies per wafer (this'd be an average), multiplied by 3000 is an estimated 5400 working GPU dies per month.
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Allegedly the 26th, or at least that's when we'll see some reviews.
Seeing how late they came out these price seems the most realistic, although I would say £350 for the 470 and £450 for the 480 at max. Any higher and I would see no point unless they have better performance than the 5800 series.
cheers
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RRP will be irrelevant, they won't have a large supply so price gouging will be killing prices.
THe most important thing is that, the cheaper they are, the less they will ever sell.
They WILL make a loss on these, there is no question about that, a wafer costs $5k, these are hot lots(put in production the same time as the tape out chip) so could cost a little more than that, they are likely getting less than 20 cores per wafer, at best that makes them $250 for the core alone. That means at ZERO profit for Nvidia, theres another 12 memory chips at about $5 a chip that would be $60 for memory, $50 for a VERY complex pcb, $10-30 for the rest of the components, it looks VERY heavy on expensive high end power circuitry bits so closer to $30. So best case scenario is without packaging, extras and shipping they'll cost the best part of $400 without a single person in the chain getting ANY profit. Considering their partners won't sell them at zero profit, you add in a little profit for other guys in the chain and to cover the cost of extra's in the pack and Nvidia's taking a good $200 loss on every core.
Its unsustainable, they stopped selling the gt200b because they couldn't sell it at a profit, breaking even was simply pointless.
The cheaper the cards are, the more loss and the less they'll want to sell, the higher the price, the smaller a loss and the more they'll likely be willing to sell to save face.
Lets say they set a maximum loss for the face saving sale of Fermi's, its its $50mil, if they were taking a $200 loss per card, they'd go past $50mil at 250k cards sold, thats 470gtx and 480gtx and any other parts.
If they are taking a $400 loss(by selling them cheaper to compete with AMD prices) then they would only be able to sell 125k before hitting the same loss levels.
Remember that 20 cores per wafer is likely very generous, if its under 10 per wafer the cost per core without any profit, shoots up to $500, add on all the other bits and its a $700 card without a single person getting profit, or any extra's anywhere, real costs and adding profit turn it into a hugely expensive card. No one but Nvidia will be eating the loss on the cores. To sell a 470gtx at £300 or $450, Nvidia could be looking at anything up to a $500 loss per card.
Anyone that thinks Nvidia will sell them long term and continually make a loss is barking mad.
The biggest issue is, Nvidia know selling 250k cards even at insane pricing, will be easy as anything, there are people out there simply not willing to buy AMD cards, there are people out there who will only buy a card that does physx. Selling 5million at £600 would be impossible, selling 250k would be easy, very easy, I can't see why Nvidia would bother selling them that cheap if they do only do a very limited run.
THe most important thing is that, the cheaper they are, the less they will ever sell.
They WILL make a loss on these, there is no question about that, a wafer costs $5k, these are hot lots(put in production the same time as the tape out chip) so could cost a little more than that, they are likely getting less than 20 cores per wafer, at best that makes them $250 for the core alone. That means at ZERO profit for Nvidia, theres another 12 memory chips at about $5 a chip that would be $60 for memory, $50 for a VERY complex pcb, $10-30 for the rest of the components, it looks VERY heavy on expensive high end power circuitry bits so closer to $30. So best case scenario is without packaging, extras and shipping they'll cost the best part of $400 without a single person in the chain getting ANY profit. Considering their partners won't sell them at zero profit, you add in a little profit for other guys in the chain and to cover the cost of extra's in the pack and Nvidia's taking a good $200 loss on every core.
Its unsustainable, they stopped selling the gt200b because they couldn't sell it at a profit, breaking even was simply pointless.
The cheaper the cards are, the more loss and the less they'll want to sell, the higher the price, the smaller a loss and the more they'll likely be willing to sell to save face.
Lets say they set a maximum loss for the face saving sale of Fermi's, its its $50mil, if they were taking a $200 loss per card, they'd go past $50mil at 250k cards sold, thats 470gtx and 480gtx and any other parts.
If they are taking a $400 loss(by selling them cheaper to compete with AMD prices) then they would only be able to sell 125k before hitting the same loss levels.
Remember that 20 cores per wafer is likely very generous, if its under 10 per wafer the cost per core without any profit, shoots up to $500, add on all the other bits and its a $700 card without a single person getting profit, or any extra's anywhere, real costs and adding profit turn it into a hugely expensive card. No one but Nvidia will be eating the loss on the cores. To sell a 470gtx at £300 or $450, Nvidia could be looking at anything up to a $500 loss per card.
Anyone that thinks Nvidia will sell them long term and continually make a loss is barking mad.
The biggest issue is, Nvidia know selling 250k cards even at insane pricing, will be easy as anything, there are people out there simply not willing to buy AMD cards, there are people out there who will only buy a card that does physx. Selling 5million at £600 would be impossible, selling 250k would be easy, very easy, I can't see why Nvidia would bother selling them that cheap if they do only do a very limited run.