How overclocked was the 5850 compared? 1000/1250 at 1.25V is a reasonable and mostly achievable clock for these cards FYI. Just asking, out of curiosity.
I would also go with the GTX470 but only if I either had money for a third party cooler or would have watercooling in mind. Otherwise 5850 will cause less issues and offers similar performance me thinks.
Perfectly safe voltage for 5850 is going from 1.087->1.150V. This is for some non-reference 5850s and all 5870s (same GPU). They're fine with higher voltages though and Asus and MSI support up to 1.3V (or 1.35V, not so sure). I wouldn't go that high personally, even with water