Ex-Tory Chancellor warns of double-dip recession

stockhausen

stockhausen

stockhausen

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Britain's economy is at risk of a "double-dip" recession and may not recover fully for another five years, Kenneth Clarke warns tomorrow. (The Observer)
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I believe that this is very significant for a number of reasons:
  • Ken Clarke was Chancellor of the Exchequer from 1993 to 1997
  • Ken Clarke is one of the few Tory MPs respected by non-Tory voters
  • Ken Clarke is pretty much past caring about whether he is on-message
  • If the recession lasts until the next election, the electorate will blame the Tories for it
 
stockhausen said:
[*]If the recession lasts until the next election, the electorate will blame the Tories for it[/list]
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Then the electorate would be idiots, and that would hardly be surprising.

Edit - Oh, and did you actually read the article? He states that if this were to occur it would be due to causes outside of the coalition's influence. He actually agrees with the economic policy of the government at the moment.
 
Good. In my simple mind, recession = interest rates low = :D

Or am i incorrect in my thinking?
 
he remains distinctly downbeat about the outlook for the British and global economies: "I'm at the more pessimistic end. I'm not sunnily optimistic about where the western economy is going."

Clarke, chancellor from 1993 to 1997, believes the chance of the UK being sucked into another recession is "below 50%", but insists that the risks remain substantial. "I do not rule out the risk of a double-dip recession caused by some fresh wave of global fear and crisis," he says.
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Seems like a fairly normal viewpoint. Where's the news in this?
 
More on this HERE.
"I'm still not sunnily optimistic about where the western economy's going. I think there's below a 50-50 chance of a double-dip recession. What I'm worried about is global uncertainties and our being hit by downturns in key markets. I do not rule out the risk of a double-dip recession caused by some fresh wave of global fear and crisis.

As the Irish are discovering, we're not out of bank crises yet; we're not out of sovereign debt crises. The markets stabilised for a bit and then they got volatile again. We've had some funny things going on in the currency market. I think it will take most of this parliament to get back to economic normality."
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Ken Clarke sets out to try and convince the electorate that when the economy goes pear-shaped and millions are out of work whilst selfish, greedy City Gamblers continue to receive massive bonuses and Tory Non-Doms dodge UK taxes, there is absolutely no way that the Tories should be blamed for it . . . . PLEASE ;)
 
Stockhausen in blatant misrepresentation of a sensible position shocker?

Again?

Ken Clarke's entire point is that if we have another external shock, we may go into a double dip recession, but he puts the likelihood of this occurring at less than 50%. that is eminently sensible and I agree with him entirely.

he also states that we must tackle the deficit and fully supports the comprehensive spending review, but you missed that part ;)
 
Dolph said:
he also states that we must tackle the deficit and fully supports the comprehensive spending review, but you missed that part ;)
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I'm sick of hearing this, the 'deficit' is at less than 60% GDP, for the better part of the last century it rarely dropped below 150%. There's no need to be doing all these reckless cuts that the Tories seem to think will have a positive effect on everything.
 
Superewza said:
I'm sick of hearing this, the 'deficit' is at less than 60% GDP, for the better part of the last century it rarely dropped below 150%. There's no need to be doing all these reckless cuts that the Tories seem to think will have a positive effect on everything.
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The deficit is nothing of the sort, you need to learn the difference between deficit and debt before you come back...

Also, the debt is not 60% of GDP when calculated in line with international standards (eg including PFI and pension liabilities), it's already over 100% of GDP.

Furthermore, the real thing that's freaked the markets out where the UK is concerned isn't the size of the debt, but the rate of expansion of the debt. Between 2002 and 2010 the debt more than doubled, with half the increase happening before the recession. Only a rapidly rising GDP (funded by creating a public and private debt bubble) masked the issue.
 
Sounds more like Ken Clark making excuses in advance on the off chance we do have a double dip recession. At least now he can say "we told you so - and it's not our fault."

Politicians, meh.
 
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