Nissan Leaf: Future or Failure?

EVs do not need any oil service (well mostly) etc, all they need are new brakes, new tyres, new brake fluids and new coolant really.

A perfect illustration of my earlier comment about ignoring battery replacement costs.
 
Angilion said “EV advocates ignoring the cost of battery replacement.”
How does that cost compare against all the moving parts you have to replace in a patrol car but no longer have? I am no car expert but surely the long list of moving parts you contently replace on your car no longer exist in a EV’s? Surly all those little things like engine Oil, fanbelts, sparkplugs along with the bigger ones add up to a fair amount. Is that more or less than a battery replacement?

At the moment, it's far less than the cost of a battery replacement. For example, to replace a Tesla battery right now will cost you in the region of US$36,000 (£23000). A replacement Nissan Leaf battery is in the region of $18,0000 (£11500). The Tesla battery has a little more than twice the storage capacity of the Leaf battery, hence double the price. Both companies state 100,000 miles as the approximate useful duration of the battery. So that's 23p per mile for the Tesla and 11.5p per mile for the Leaf. It's odd that both are claiming 100,000 miles for batteries with such different capacities. I think they're just claiming a nice round number and don't have much real data to go on. Even at the far lower battery cost for the Leaf, it's still a great deal of money. You aren't going to pay £11,500 per 100,000 miles for fanbelts, sparkplugs, etc.

You can see why advocates ignore that cost and hope everyone else does too.

There are service costs for EVs, too, of course. They're less than the service costs for an ICE car because an electric motor is simpler than an ICE, but they're not non-existent and battery cost is the huge scary elephant in the room.

At some point in the future EV cars might become cheaper to run than ICE cars, but right now they're much more expensive to run.

EDIT: I'm not sure they're ever become cheaper. Battery prices will probably drop, but taxation will probably increase (because the government will not just ignore the loss of tax revenue from diesel and petrol if more than a handful of people use EVs). If you compare like with like in terms of tax, the electricity cost of EVs isn't much less than the actual fuel cost of a comparable ICE car. I'm not convinced the very small savings in real running costs will ever offset the battery cost, even if batteries drop to a fifth of their current price.
 
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How does it? My house has a 120A supply to it, if you charged the car at a nominal 50A, thats a ~10 hour charge time isnt it?

But standard UK mains, which is what I was referring to, is 13A.

At 50A, it would be little under 11 hours with 100% efficiency. 230V at 50A is 11.5KW.

Which reminds me...does anyone know what the charging efficiency actually is?

I know you can get a higher power supply installed in your garage for an EV, for a few extra thousand pounds, but on a quick look I can't find any details.
 
Which reminds me...does anyone know what the charging efficiency actually is?

I know you can get a higher power supply installed in your garage for an EV, for a few extra thousand pounds, but on a quick look I can't find any details.

95% or so is possible on the slow charge with Lithium cells.

Ive already mentioned the Volt example in this thread. 12.4 in for 10.9 to the pack, I guess thats on 110V supply so theres extra conversion losses from the bigger voltage jump but thats 88%.

A UK plug is up to 13A from the ring, not sure why you keep mentioning it as some sort of limit for a home supply?

Also I have no idea why you seems suprised at Nissan and Tesla quoting 100k miles. They both have potentially the same peak C discharge, the drive life predictions would be based on a similar number of miles a year and hence calender life issue of the pack is the same. The Tesla of course should see less high DoD cycles due to its larger range but Nissan probably has a more robust chemistry at the expense of energy density, hence not requiring liquid cooling.

i had seen £7k cited as the Leaf pack replacement cost at the moment. Should come down as its a pretty elegant little module they use and Renault/Nissan are aiming for 500,000 EVs a year within years.
 
Source. WR21 gas turbine, 1500c combustiom temps and heat recouperator wouldnt even get near that. Your talking BSFCs near on 100g/kWh.

Source?

Various seminars. I'll try to dig a few papers out for you. However it's not impossible. Current CCGT (and COGAS propulsion) plants produce 70%+ Carnot efficiencies. BMW are already looking into the CCGT route.

Ultimately things will go electric. The source can be from the Grid or from Hydrogen fuel cells. Before it does I do believe we'll see a lot more efficient internal combustion engines.
 
95% or so is possible on the slow charge with Lithium cells.

Ive already mentioned the Volt example in this thread. 12.4 in for 10.9 to the pack, I guess thats on 110V supply so theres extra conversion losses from the bigger voltage jump but thats 88%.

Thanks for the numbers.

A UK plug is up to 13A from the ring, not sure why you keep mentioning it as some sort of limit for a home supply?

Because people are talking in terms of plugging the car in as a standard appliance in a standard socket.

I've also said that you can get higher power charging stations fitted in your garage for a few thousand pounds. I've seen up to 12KW advertised as possible, which would charge 4 times faster than a standard plug socket.

Also I have no idea why you seems suprised at Nissan and Tesla quoting 100k miles.

Because I was thinking that having double the storage capacity would have an effect on the lifespan of the battery under the same conditions.

They both have potentially the same peak C discharge, the drive life predictions would be based on a similar number of miles a year and hence calender life issue of the pack is the same. The Tesla of course should see less high DoD cycles due to its larger range but Nissan probably has a more robust chemistry at the expense of energy density, hence not requiring liquid cooling.

That makes sense to me. Again, thanks for the explanation.

i had seen £7k cited as the Leaf pack replacement cost at the moment.

Have you seen any explanation as to how they got the cost of batteries down so much lower than other companies?

Should come down as its a pretty elegant little module they use and Renault/Nissan are aiming for 500,000 EVs a year within years.

Come down, probably, but by how much?

Some cost comparisons...

On the one hand, the Leaf. I'll even use your much lower figure for the cost of the battery.

On the other, a small, efficient petrol car.

The Leaf, including regenerative braking, does about 4 miles per KWh. Going on 11p per KWh, which is about average for domestic electricity, that's about 2.75p per mile.

A small, efficient petrol car can get 55mpg. 1 gallon is 4.55 litres, so that's 12.1 miles per litre. The actual cost of a litre of petrol in the UK is about 46p including delivery costs and the profit for the retailer, so that's an actual cost of 3.8p per mile.

Add 7p per mile for your low cost for the battery and you get 9.75p per mile for the Leaf.

EVs are only temporarily cheaper to run because the government temporarily doesn't tax running them. That will last only as long as EVs are extremely rare.

Even if you add the massive tax on petrol and pretend that the government will be content to simply lose all that tax revenue if people switch to EVs (like that would happen), the cost of petrol plus the huge tax is 10.4p per mile, which is still only very slightly higher than the cost of running the Leaf with the temporary lack of tax. 0.65p per mile.

Given that the Leaf is over £28,000 and a comparable small petrol car is under £10,000, the miniscule cost saving in a highly unrealistic best case scenario for the Leaf means you'd need to drive over 2.5 million miles to recoup the initial extra cost...and you'd make far more money putting it in any kind of savings scheme.

Of course, if you compare with a small, efficient diesel car instead you can't get a cost advantage with an EV at all, even in the highly unrealistic best case scenario of the government deciding that it will just lose the tax revenue it currently gets from petrol and diesel and not tax EV use at all, let alone to the same extent.

The idea that EVs have much lower running costs than ICE vehicles is just plain wrong. The numbers don't come anywhere near close to vaguely being within waving distance of supporting that argument.
 
A question about batteries and motors: to what extent will a battery upgrade be able to improve the performance of the vehicle, as opposed to just the range / economy?

Not at all, because the motor will be built very specifically to match the battery intended for its use?

Or somewhat, because it won't cost manufacturers much extra to supply a motor capable of more performance than the battery with which it was supplied was capable of?

I ask because it would be exciting if, when batteries are cheaper, one could unplug their old battery and plug in an upgrade, giving a bhp (and presumably range) upgrade in the (let's say) five minutes it would take to make the swap.
 
You can up the power of the motor with simple mods, however you risk demagnatising it and damaging it.

Resistor mod of justice!
 
A question about batteries and motors: to what extent will a battery upgrade be able to improve the performance of the vehicle, as opposed to just the range / economy?

Not at all, because the motor will be built very specifically to match the battery intended for its use?

Or somewhat, because it won't cost manufacturers much extra to supply a motor capable of more performance than the battery with which it was supplied was capable of?

I ask because it would be exciting if, when batteries are cheaper, one could unplug their old battery and plug in an upgrade, giving a bhp (and presumably range) upgrade in the (let's say) five minutes it would take to make the swap.


Just changing the battery wouldn't make the slightest difference to power output as the motor input would be software controlled.
X degrees of accel pedal movement = Y volts to motor.

Basically you'd need a remap as well. :D
 
No idea about EV here but do they have a KERS built in? Perhaps the next few years in F1 will get us some fancy new systems to recharge while braking etc.

Saying that, they probably don't generate enough energy under everyday braking to warrant the extra weight etc.
 
No idea about EV here but do they have a KERS built in? Perhaps the next few years in F1 will get us some fancy new systems to recharge while braking etc.

Saying that, they probably don't generate enough energy under everyday braking to warrant the extra weight etc.

Yes they have KERS built in, its the only way hybrids actually work aswell..

Hence cars like this are light on mechanical brakes.
 
Thanks for the numbers.
SNIP.....

That's a lot of confusing babble..

Taking the best case scenario for MPG of a current internal combustion engine fitted car (http://www.buyacar.co.uk/cars/article_best_for_fuel_economy_top_20_2527.jhtml)
of 67.2 MPG
and with best case scenario fuel prices (http://www.petrolprices.com/search.html?search=gL51)
129.90pence per litre x 4.546 = 590.52 pence per gallon
Your car is costing you 8.78 pence per mile to run

Taking your figures as gospel for the leaf..
The Leaf, including regenerative braking, does about 4 miles per KWh. Going on 11p per KWh, which is about average for domestic electricity, that's about 2.75p per mile.

That's a difference of 6.03 pence per mile.

The Nissan Leaf costs -£28,350 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/may/17/nissan-leaf-electric-car-cost
The Citroen C1 costs -£8,925 http://uk.cars.yahoo.com/car-reviews/car-and-driving/citroen-c1-1.4hdi-range-1004712.html
A difference of £19,425 / 1,942,500p
or 322,139 miles...
Not quite the 2.5 million miles you talked about but still.
The battery pack would have given out long before then so the figures go out the window. :(
 
You can buy things like the Fabia Greenline that have the potential to do 83mpg or the Smart that'll do 85mpg - although whether you can match that in real life is a whole different story......
 
That's a lot of confusing babble..

If you let me know which parts confused you, I'll explain them. There isn't anything complicated in it.

Taking the best case scenario for MPG of a current internal combustion engine fitted car (http://www.buyacar.co.uk/cars/article_best_for_fuel_economy_top_20_2527.jhtml)
of 67.2 MPG
and with best case scenario fuel prices (http://www.petrolprices.com/search.html?search=gL51)
129.90pence per litre x 4.546 = 590.52 pence per gallon
Your car is costing you 8.78 pence per mile to run
I wasn't being that generous to ICE cars, hence my figure of 10.4p. I was using a petrol car, as that was what was initially specified.

Taking your figures as gospel for the leaf..
Apart from the very important figure of battery cost that you didn't include at all.

I wrote some while ago about that being tenaciously ignored. It's nice to be repeatedly proven right.

If you want to use the official mileage figure for the Leaf, it's much lower.

The official figure is 3 miles per KWh. I used 4 miles per KWh that you've paid for, i.e. an estimate that regenerative braking can extend range by 33%.

That's a difference of 6.03 pence per mile.
If you ignore most of the running cost of the Leaf (batteries) and ignore the temporary massive difference in taxation. Both of which are unrealistic things to do if you want to make an accurate comparison of the actual running costs of the different technologies.

Even then, you get a breakeven point of 322,139 miles and that's in comparison with keeping the £19,425 purchase price difference in a box or something, i.e. without any interest. If you got any interest on it, that would push the breakeven point even further.

The Nissan Leaf costs -£28,350 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/may/17/nissan-leaf-electric-car-cost
The Citroen C1 costs -£8,925 http://uk.cars.yahoo.com/car-reviews/car-and-driving/citroen-c1-1.4hdi-range-1004712.html
A difference of £19,425 / 1,942,500p
or 322,139 miles...
Not quite the 2.5 million miles you talked about but still.
The battery pack would have given out long before then so the figures go out the window. :(
I'll redo my post with your figures. Here are the key differences neatly laid out:

i) I will include Nissan's own stated battery replacement requirements because battery cost is a part of the running cost of the car.

ii) I will continue to be extremely generous to the Leaf and use the unsubstantiated extremely low price for the batteries. It's much lower than the cost of the same batteries to any other company, so it seems unlikely to be true, but I'll use it anyway because I'm going out of my way to show EV running costs in as good a light as I can.

iii) I will take taxation into consideration. The government currently has a vast tax income from the huge taxes on petrol and diesel. It is wildly unrealistic to assume they will just ignore the loss of that tax income if people switched to EVs in any more than miniscule quantities. The current enormous difference in taxation of ICE vehicle use and EV use is not at all sustainable.

Citroen C1

Fuel cost per mile: 3.36p
Fuel tax cost per mile: 5.42p

To get a total of 8.78p per mile.

Nissan Leaf

Electricity cost per mile: 2.75p
Battery cost per mile: 7p

To get a total of 9.75p per mile.

So even with the massive difference in taxation favouring the Leaf, which is only possible because hardly anyone uses EVs, the driving costs of the C1 are still lower than the driving costs of the Leaf.

There will probably be some savings over time on the Leaf because the motor and drivetrain are simpler, so they are probably less likely to go wrong, but even in the bizarrely unlikely event of the government deciding it never really needed the tax revenue from motorists anyway, it's far from clear than the Leaf is cheaper to run at all, let alone by anywhere near enough to offset the far higher purchase price.
 
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No idea about EV here but do they have a KERS built in? Perhaps the next few years in F1 will get us some fancy new systems to recharge while braking etc.

Saying that, they probably don't generate enough energy under everyday braking to warrant the extra weight etc.

Yes, they do. In EVs, it's usually referred to as regenerative braking. It does generate enough to warrant the extra weight, which is very little compared with the total weight. An increase in range of a third looks like a reasonable estimate to me. For example, a Tesla Roadster is rated at 3 miles per KWh and has 54KWh on a full charge. So the range would be 3*54 = 162 miles. The range is actually 211 miles on a standard combined cycle.
 
Has anyone got any links to articles on how vehicle taxation is likely to work when people start buying electric cars en masse?

Is it likely to be:

EV--> some kind of motor efficiency rating
ICE--> continue using CO2?

Or even better, all ICEs attain classic status and are taxed at £0! That would be pretty amusing, seeing the owners of EV car's faces drop as the government announce that EV vehicles will be taxed to buggery but ICE drivers will get off scot free. But unlikely I admit.
 
Sorry but are you really using a Citroen C1 for comparisons to a Nissan Leaf? Its two class segments apart. You will never get that 67MPG as a lifecyle average either.

No one ever declares TOC is cheaper, just the fuel and that little thing in people head to feel good about something is enough for some to buy into a niche product. You have set yourself on a self styled mission that also ignores residuals, of course that is likely to go in the ICE favour.... but an C1?

The assumed increase in EV 'juice' duty is unlikely to increase at a a rate higher than petroleum based fuels aswell. Can we also factor in the cost to UK.gov getting involved with petro dollars used in theatres of war to assist the yanks in controlling oil supplies?

Nissan have been claiming costs in the region of $250 - 300/kWh for the battery cell costs on some documents I have seen, but im yet to see that substatiated for the public domain.
 
Has anyone got any links to articles on how vehicle taxation is likely to work when people start buying electric cars on mass?

Is it likely to be:

EV--> some kind of motor efficiency rating
ICE--> continue usign CO2?

Or even better, all ICEs attain classic status and are taxed at £0! That would be pretty amusing, seeing the owners of EV car's faces drop as the government announce that EV vehicles will be taxed to buggery but ICE drivers will get off scot free. But unlikely I admit.

Its what it is now, no one can predict government policy....

Company car drivers also benefit from 0% BIK.
 
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