Statistically of course, it is more likely. As pointed out by Ed Norton's character in Fight Club: on a long enough time-line, the probability for everything drops to zero. However, you're an old-timer so are expected to know the rules by now and how to avoid getting yourself banned. The ball I guess is in your court.
True... I guess there just seems to be a dearth of posters above about 25k or thereabouts, with the obvious exception of Fox and Gillbot.