Age:
You must go back to 1940 to the last horse aged younger than 8 to in the race. In the last 87 years, no horse older than 12 has won the National.
Aged 8-12 is a sound bracket for win bets and horses you want to in the first 5 for your e/w bets. The likes of QUINZ andQUILIBET can be easily dismissed as 7 year olds. Quinz is as low as 14/1 for the race and is definitely place lay material.
Weight:
It usually pays to concentrate on those carrying 11st5lb or less. Dont Push It won off 11st5lbs last year. Only 5 horses since the War have won carrying more than this and two of them were named Red Rum. That means you can quite easily cross out the top 6 horse which are DONT PUSH IT,TIDAL BAY,MIDNIGHT CHASE,SYNCRONISED,VIC VENTURI,WHAT A FRIEND.
Class,Experience and Stamina:
Class is important, horses rated between 136-156 are the ones to concentrate on, statiscally. Horses who have won the National in the past have usually won at listed class at some point in their career. Equally important is Stamina- the public seem to have it theory that 2m4f horses can win Nationals, this isnt the case and you definitely want your selection to have won over at least 3 miles, or similarly, have been placed in good company over that distance. Every winner in the last 10 years had won a race worth at least £17,000.
Having said that, I have noticed a few horses that have ran well in the Becher chase or another race over the National fences like the Grand Sefton over 2m5f and have earn the quotes "Outpaced then Stayed on" have gone on to run well in the National once stepped up in trip- The ill fated Mckelvey the most notable of these who was unlucky not to win in 2007, just being edged out by Silver Birch.
8 of the last 10 winners at ran over fences 10 times or more.
Breeding and Headgear:
Apart from 100/1 shock winner Mon Mome, French bred horses have a truly dreadful record in the race, they hardly ever place let alone win. I do believe that French bred horses are becoming more accustomed to our fences, but even so, its a strong stat and one which can cross off quite a few- Since 1998, French horses have accounted for nearly 25% of all runners, all of which produced one winner at 100/1 and only 3 placed in the top 5. The likes of OR NOIR DE SOMOZA,NOTRE PERE,QUINZ,ORNAIS,PIRAYA,BACKSTAGE,GALANT NUIT,MERIGO AND POMME TIEPY
can rather easily be crossed off. Horses wearing headgear also have a pretty dismal record apart from Comply or Die, whom I remember fitted nearly every description of a statistical winner of the National apart from that and thats why I backed him. But use your initiative with this one and look for horses that are clearly quite quirky.
Heres an interesting stat that'll make you stand to attention:
The most interesting stat I've uncovered is the fact that 15 out of the last 19 winners had won at two of the following tracks in their career prior to running in the National:
Cheltenham
Chepstow
Aintree
Punchestown
Gowran Park
Fairyhouse
Two winners of the four that didn't qualify were possibly the biggest horses ever to run over the fences - Party Politics and Lord Gyllene, the latter who was a winner of the National that was ran on the Monday. Another one of the four that didn't qualify won what can only be described as a freak result when Red Marauder only beat three finishers. So In effect 15 of the last 16 "orthodox" winners fit this stat.
2010 Dont Push It - Aint, Chep, Chelt
2009 Mon Mome - Chelt, Aint
2008 Comply Or Die - Chelt, Chep
2007 Silver Birch - Chep, Aint
2006 Numbersixvalverde - Fairy, Gow, Punch
2005 Hedgehunter - Fairy, Gow, Punch
2004 Amberleigh House - Aint, Gow, Punch
2003 Monty's Pass - DOESN'T QUALIFY (had won @ Gowran Park though!)
2002 Bindaree - Chelt, Chep
2001 Red Marauder - DOESN'T QUALIFY, FREAK RESULT
2000 Papillon - Punch, Fairy, Chelt
1999 Bobbyjo - Fairy, Punch
1998 Earth Summit - Chep, Chelt
1997 Lord Gyllene - DOESN'T QUALIFY, MONDAY NATIONAL
1996 Rough Quest - Chelt, Punch
1995 Royale Athlete - Chelt, Aintree
1994 Miinnehoma - Chelt, Chep
1993 VOID RACE
1992 Party Politics - DOESN'T QUALIFY
1991 Seagram - Chelt, Chep
This years qualifiers:
Don't Push It
Tidal Bay
What A Friend
Scotsirish
The Midnight Club
Chief Dan George
Comply Or Die
State Of Play
In Compliance
Arbor Supreme
Always Waining
Heres Kevs initial Shortlist: Id be pretty sure the winner will feature among these, if not then there will be one or two in the frame at nice prices. I will change it and trim it on the day to be more clinical. I usually back 4 horses in the race, perhaps 5. In 2007 I tipped the first 3 home Silver Birch,Mckelvey and Slim Pickings.
http://www.121s.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=2 1581&p=2 (Im Moscowsmate, as I still am on Oracle forum) ....and since then the only winner Ive missed is last years winner, that including tipping Mon Mome as a likely outsider who could sneak the frame!
Oscar Time- 14/1
Big Fella Thanks- 16/1 (A-P @ 20/1)
Arbor Supreme- 22/1
Bluesea Cracker- 25/1
State Of Play- 25/1
BecauseiCouldntsee-28/1
Character Building- 33/1 (A-P @ 66/1)
Chief Dan George- 40/1
Comply Or Die- 50/1
In Compliance- 50/1
Always Waining- 66/1 (A-P @ 100/1)
woooo
