Depreciation Graphs

monkey_boy · 18 May 2011 at 15:46

Hi All,

I was just wondering if there's a way to get graphs showing the depreciation of particular models of cars without just trying to gather the info yourself.

Also interested if something exists that would I suppose be an analysis of the way a site like autotrader is used - What is searched for most, what other things the same people search for etc.

Cheers,

[TW]Fox · 18 May 2011 at 15:52

I just make my own depreciation graphs using residual values of equivilent models today, adjusting for known future events like the introduction of a new model. It's not an exact science but then no prediction of the future value of anything is, really.

monkey_boy · 18 May 2011 at 15:59

That's the way I estimate depreciation at the moment but I'm interested to see how events or changes in the market have changed the depreciation 'curve' of particular models of cars in relation to others.

For instance, I would be interested to know the Year 1, 2, 3, 4 & 5 values of a 2002, 2004, 2008 & 2010 320i vs 320d. I would bet that the depreciation is different for each given the changes in VED calculations, the recession and fuel prices. I'd just like to know abit more accurately than I do now.

Joe T · 18 May 2011 at 18:16

I do this for a living, mostly using our own projections and CAP data. (CAP is Current Auction Prices, and is similar to Glasses, but is more appropriate for cars being sold within the trade).

Parkers has some publicly available data, which wont be as good as a paid-for service but might get you started.

PMKeates · 18 May 2011 at 18:18

Joe T said:
and is similar to Glasses

Glass's

Joe T · 18 May 2011 at 18:23

Trust you to say that

Dabbles · 18 May 2011 at 18:44

PMKeates said:
Glass's

Glass'

PMKeates · 18 May 2011 at 19:10

Dabbles said:
Glass'

FO it's Glass's

benskia · 18 May 2011 at 19:25

Hello.
Could you explain your findings on the affect of introducing a new model. Especially a 3 series BMW would be of particular interest.
Many thanks

[TW]Fox · 18 May 2011 at 19:56

benskia said:
Hello.
Could you explain your findings on the affect of introducing a new model. Especially a 3 series BMW would be of particular interest.
Many thanks

Easiest way to do this is to pick two identical specification cars both registered at the same sort of time with the same mileage - but where one is an all-new model and one is a previous generation model.

For clarity and ease we shall use Parkers, everyones favourite useless guide, because we are only after an example.

Looking at a 2010 530d SE - one being an F10 and one being an E60. Both cars are the same age, so lets see the effect not being the current model has on value..

A 2010/10 530d SE Auto E60 with 10k miles has, according to Parkers, a franchised dealer would sell the car for £25650.

A 2010/10 530d SE Auto F10 with 10k miles, by contrast, would sell for £32505.

benskia · 18 May 2011 at 20:09

Whoa! That is some difference.

Dabbles · 18 May 2011 at 20:11

benskia said:
Whoa! That is some difference.

Of course it is. People, especially those who can afford 1 year old BMWs, want the latest model, those who would settle for the older model expect to get it for less cash.

Lashout_UK · 18 May 2011 at 20:42

If you want a real basic starting point, it's not bad to assume that after a year and 10k miles it'll be down to 60-70% of its original value and after three years and 30k miles around 40%.