Pre crash house prices

Hex all very valid points and quite a good summery.

Also you have to remember more women are working now so so house prices may be 7.8x income but they still may be 4 times household income.

This is a very good point, and another example of how high house prices and living costs are damaging society.

Traditionally, having both people going to work full time was an exception rather than a rule, and it was the norm for women to either stay at home, or only work part time.

Children need to be raised by their parents, being sent to a creche or child minder is no substitute.

Having both parents working also has the effect of flooding what is already a saturated job market, thus creating increased competition for jobs, giving employers the ability to offer lower wages than they would be able to have otherwise, which further impacts the situation and need for both people to work.

What we have seen over the past few decades equates to increased indebtedness and servitude to the financial elite, with people working harder for less, with the traditional family unit and values being massively undermined.
 
This is a very good point, and another example of how high house prices and living costs are damaging society.

Traditionally, having both people going to work full time was an exception rather than a rule, and it was the norm for women to either stay at home, or only work part time.

Children need to be raised by their parents, being sent to a creche or child minder is no substitute.
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My mum told me recently that she sees a LOT of grandparents out with the kids these days. More so than she used to when we were little. And it kind of makes sense, my parents are in their early 50s are and well off enough that my mum hasnt worked full time since I was born. She did some part time stuff for 10 years while I was at school but never really needed to. She can't wait to look after our sprogs.

The other thing about women working though is that while 30 years ago more women WANTED to stay at home to look after the kids, a lot more now want to go back to work. My wife will be going back to work as she loves her job and doesn't see the point of wasting 4 years of uni to not work again. With our current working pattern we'll need some kind of child minder 2-3 days a week and both of our mums have said they'd love to do it because they have the time because they don't work.
 
To be honest I don't hunk 250k is too much for a London house. For a average working semi professional couple a 55k combined income is quite reasonable.

That means they can borrow 220 to 247.5k assuming they have a 22 to 50k deposit a 250k house is easily affordable.

EDIT: example, I sold a house in london 6 months ago for 250k. The guy was young (around 28 yo) electrician and his wife was just finishing her masters. They both had help form the parents for the deposit.
 
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this is only a perceived problem in the uk - here it's the be all and end all to own a house, other countries/cities have massive rental markets where people are more than happy to not own the property (but then again tenants have decent rights too!)
 
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The biggest issue with house prices falling to a sensible level is that no one who bought a house at the inflated prices is willing to admit that they were a *** and should have realised that what they did was stupid. The greater issue however is that no one wants their house to suddenly drop massively in value meaning that their mortgage is more than the value of the house.
It's all well and good to pontificate about it with hindsight isn't it, but some people don't have much choice. Unfortunately for us, house prices in Cambridge are ridiculously inflated, and they always will be. Even in market crashes the prices stay fairly stable, so getting on the property ladder in some places is not easy.
 
this is only a perceived problem in the uk - here it's the be all and end all to own a house, other countries/cities have massive rental markets where people are more than happy to not own the property (but then again tenants have decent rights too!)

Agree with this too. If the rental market in this country was better, there wouldn't be such a housing crisis.
 
The real question is what happens when interest rates rise? If many people are mortgaged up to their eyeballs (which they simply MUST be for this situation to have even come about), then what happens when their monthly repayments double or even triple? Obviously many people will default and lose their homes, putting lots of cheap housing stock on the market when the banks try to recoup some of the lost money.

Or is this not even a possibility? Surely interest rates cannot stay low forever??
 
What a load of Tosh

When the banks start lending 90-95 % Mortgages again at 3-4 times salary watch house prices rocket again , the demand is still there and always will be . I suggest another 7-8 years and we will be 07 prices again.

Who wants to pay rent into your later life ?
 
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The real question is what happens when interest rates rise? If many people are mortgaged up to their eyeballs (which they simply MUST be for this situation to have even come about), then what happens when their monthly repayments double or even triple? Obviously many people will default and lose their homes, putting lots of cheap housing stock on the market when the banks try to recoup some of the lost money.

Or is this not even a possibility? Surely interest rates cannot stay low forever??

If the people who bought in the boom used a bit of common sense and plowed the money they saved when the interest rates went to 0.5% into over paying their mortgages then hopefully any interest rise would be offset some what.
 
If the people who bought in the boom used a bit of common sense and plowed the money they saved when the interest rates went to 0.5% into over paying their mortgages then hopefully any interest rise would be offset some what.

You just made me choke on my drink! :D
 
I have saved 20k atm and I have been looking at houses for about 180k.

I earn about 23k (without overtime) and GF about 19k.

How much more do you guys think I need to save? :(

Will house prices really drop or will it just be relative i.e. yes the house is cheaper BUT interest rates are higher :confused:
 
I have saved 20k atm and I have been looking at houses for about 180k.

I earn about 23k (without overtime) and GF about 19k.

How much more do you guys think I need to save? :(

Will house prices really drop or will it just be relative i.e. yes the house is cheaper BUT interest rates are higher :confused:

I would be looking at saving 40k when buying a 180k house.

To be honest if you are in a good area or in the london area I don't see 180k houses falling much if at all.

1 million pound homes up north is a different story.
 
this is only a perceived problem in the uk - here it's the be all and end all to own a house, other countries/cities have massive rental markets where people are more than happy to not own the property (but then again tenants have decent rights too!)

I think you'll find that no one is happy renting, anywhere, ever. Why would anyone be happy to pay rent so that the landlord can pay their mortgage?

People rent because they can't afford to buy OR because they can invest their cash in something with higher yield. no one rents and has 100k sitting in a bank account gathering dust.

What are you going to do if you rent all your life and retire with a state pension? move into a council flat? go on benefits? oh glorious retirement isn't it!
 
Its all a massive mess but one that will have to be sorted eventually. £160,000 is far too much for a house when the average salary is just above £20,000. Hopefully house prices will plummet soon and the idiots that thought their two bedroom terrace house was worth £150,000 will realise that a little common sense would have saved them a lot of problems.

How is 150k a lot for a house?
 
I have saved 20k atm and I have been looking at houses for about 180k.

I earn about 23k (without overtime) and GF about 19k.

How much more do you guys think I need to save? :(

Will house prices really drop or will it just be relative i.e. yes the house is cheaper BUT interest rates are higher :confused:

Interest rates can only go higher, not lower. In the next few years they will start going up - there is no debate on that. The issue is not IF they will go up, just WHEN.

20k for 180k property means you need a 90% LTV mortgage. That will give you the worst interest rates. If you can save a 25% deposit you'll get a better interest rate. It all comes down to how comfortable you are with whatever interest rate is offered to you.

I wouldn't worry much about house prices dropping. Even if they do don't expect any spectacular drops within a year or so, it will be slow and gradual. Especially in London, forget about it, too high demand and too little supply.

Even if they were to drop you wouldn't still be able to afford an extra bedroom so it wouldn't make that much of a difference (compared to lost money from renting throughout all that time etc.etc.)
 
I think you'll find that no one is happy renting, anywhere, ever. Why would anyone be happy to pay rent so that the landlord can pay their mortgage?

People rent because they can't afford to buy OR because they can invest their cash in something with higher yield. no one rents and has 100k sitting in a bank account gathering dust.

Simple maths really.

I rent a place in Prague, the owner bought i a few months ago for 272k (pounds) his mortgage is at around 5%, so he is paying 1100 in interest per month (consider 5% lose earning on the deposit)

I pay 750 quid per month rent plus 400 quid building management per month. Net loss to the owner 350 quid per month plus expenses but he is hoping to make a capital gain on the property which is a risk I am not willing to take here.

I also like the fact that I have the freedom to move anytime I want. We bought a house up north in the uk, I now don't want to live up there but there is no way we can move as selling it will not be easy (plus it not done up yet).
 
This is very true, people have been instilled with a fear that if they don't get on the ladder ASAP, prices will rise to such an extent that a house is no longer affordable.

Of course, this situation has been engineered by our corrupt government and banks. Over the years, the planning system has become ever more complex and restrictive, thus creating a supply shortage, therefore helping prices to rise.

Between 1999 & 2009 house prices increased by over 150%, pushing the national average house price to over 7 times the national average wage. Traditionally, this has been in the range of 3.5-4.5 times the average wage.

This has created an intergenerational wealth divide. Many under 35s currently unable to afford to buy a family home, would have been able to do so had they been born 10 years earlier, and been of a working age when house prices were more in line with wages.

The cause of the housing boom was largely as a result of market manipulation and credit deregulation performed by then chancellor, Gordon Brown, in a short sighted attempt to generate economic growth out of thin air. Naturally, people already on the housing ladder benefited from this immensely, because on paper they became very wealthy, and were able to use Mortgage Equity Withdrawal to fund home improvements, new purchases and holidays etc. Unfortunately this was a one-shot method of achieving growth and has resulted in Britain having one of the highest levels of household debt in the developed world.

The housing boom was orchestrated through a number of means. Firstly, light touch regulation of the banking industry, leading to sub-prime mortgage lending, and up to 125% mortgages being available - rather than needing to save for a deposit, you could actually borrow 125% of the value of the property you were purchasing. Secondly, housing costs were removed from inflation indexes. This circumvented the mechanism which ensured that if house prices rose sufficiently enough to distort inflation figures, interest rate rises could be used to arrest abnormal growth.

There were also other factors at play too. These include constricted supply due to increasingly restrictive planning regulations and increased demand due to immigration from EU member states, though it is unlikely that these would have had a significant impact on prices.

There were also changes made (again by Gordon Brown) to tax legistlation with regard to pension schemes and investments . These changes were made despite advice from the treasury (and various economists) not to. This resulted in billions being slashed from pension pots, and many final salary schemes ending. This resulted in people looking for other investment vehicles to fund their retirements. Buy-to-let was seen as a very sound investment, both in terms of annual yield and capital appreciation.

We have had, and still do have a housing bubble in this country. It is currently being kept inflated by low interest rates and various other tools. I do not see housing as a worthwhile investment, and will not be making a purchase until the average houseprice:wage ratio returns to more conventional levels.
In 1997, according to the Office of National Statistics, the UK national average wage was £16,666.

According to the Nationwide Building Society the Average House price in 1997 was £55k.

£16,666/£55,000 = 3.3x salary [mortgage]

* The Average First Timer Buyer mortgage in 1997 was just £41.5k [CouncilMortgageLenders]

By 2007, at the peak of the boom [according to the Office of National Statistics] the national average wage had risen to £23.5k

The Average House Price in 2007 was £185k. [According to the Nationwide, however, the CML, and Halifax have it higher. And there are countless examples of 300% increases over that same period. 1997-2007]

£185,000/£23.5k = 7.8x salary [mortgage]

The Average house price would need to fall by around 60% in value, from its peak 2007 valuation, to return to historically acceptable inflationary affordability of 3 – 3.5x salary

[Over two thirds of the UK earn less than average wage. In 2008 an ONS survey showed that over 6 million people earn £10k per annum or less. These included Hairdressers and Cleaners.]

A debt transfer has taken place then. [Polite language for THEFT.]

Hehehe OcUK Housing expert :p:cool:

It is to an extent unbelieveable that for a developed and rich economy, majority are earning such amounts:(. Even people in oil rich countries must be better off (bar the labour)
 
I have saved 20k atm and I have been looking at houses for about 180k.

I earn about 23k (without overtime) and GF about 19k.

How much more do you guys think I need to save? :(

Will house prices really drop or will it just be relative i.e. yes the house is cheaper BUT interest rates are higher :confused:

I honestly doubt prices are going to drop again like they did from the peak of 07 to the start of 09.

You are going to be looking at needing at least a 10% deposit, or 15% for a better rate.

Nationwide at 10% on a 5 year fixed could be 5.79% for payments every month of £1023.

Get together 15% and that drops to 5.04% and £900 a month.

Your best bet is to work out how much you can afford to pay and work backwards from there. If you cna only afford to pay 800 a month then you need to save more or look for a cheaper place. If you can afford to pay 1100 a month then you are good with 10% but 15 would be better.
 
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