So much fail in one post.
As I said by the time your watch the market approach says "woo look they are rising time to fix" you wont get a decent fix. Its how it works in the market place. Watching other factors gives you a clue but by the time the signs are really there they have already been detected by people who do this constantly.
I didn't say that was my approach though? Of course reacting when the rates are already rising it is going to be too late. I said, keep an eye on the market and key economy indicators (like inflation, especially salary inflation and a large reduction in cost-push inflation) and make a decision 6 months before the rates start rising for real. Yes the banks do this too but the fixed mortgage products only start being more "seriously" affected as the certainty of a rate rise grows, which could be 3 months after the first indications.
Really taking the last couple of years as they "new interest rate trend" isnt good, last 10 years here
http://www.mortgages.co.uk/interest-rates/interest-rate-history.html
The rates have been historically quite high to control GDP growth and demand-pull inflation. Overlay that chart with one for GDP growth and you will see. GDP growth and demand-pull inflation are long gone from this country and won't be returning any time soon.
Current economic conditions do indeed lead to a depressed market. I have a personal opinion that the vast majority of people in the UK are very poor financially and that as soon as things pickup old habits will return. They will have paid down lots of debt and will suddenly feel better and able to borrow more, that could easily trigger some unexpected inflation and that will almost definately be attempted to be controlled with interest rates.
That assumes that banks will be willing to lend people with bags of credit again. I doubt that they will. It will take a couple generations for that to happen again, for this depression and its lessons to have been forgotten. Also let's not forget the huge squeeze on disposable income at the moment. Many people simply don't have the spare cash to be overpaying on their debts.
Our current "high" inflation compared to low interest rates cannot continue long term.
Sure it can. 5% is nothing in the grand scheme of things. The BoE are deliberately stimulating the inflation through QE and low interest rates. It is evaporating away our debts. What actually keeps Mervyn King awake at night is the prospect of *deflation*. If it wasn't for the BoE's current measures we would almost certainly be in a state of deflation. That's what they are afraid of. They don't want that to happen and are doing everything possible to ensure we stay very firmly in the realm of inflation. Inflation is expected to fall rapidly in early 2012. It could get so low that the BoE sees fit to perform more QE just to keep inflation in the positive figures.
It is the *type* of inflation that we have right now that matters. Which is cost-push inflation. This type of inflation isn't controllable through interest rates. Interest rates are designed to control growth and demand. Since we have neither right now, whacking interest rates up to 5% is going to do bugger all except make the economy even worse. As it increases the cost of lending, which isn't something we need at all. We WANT banks to be lending to small businesses and first-time home buyers. 5% right now would ensure hundreds of thousands of people default on their mortgages, repossessions would rocket and social housing demand would rocket. It would make the government burden of welfare even greater.
If you want to see how dramatic interest rates need to rise just look at China or India, both trying to supress inflation with interest rates
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15441522
My comparison to Japan was relevant and slightly valid, because the context of the situation was very similar. But a comparison to India and China is ludicrous. Those economies are booming right now. All their inflation is from demand-pull. This is where consumers just can't get enough of spending their hard earned on crap. Possibly a lot of it is driven through easy credit as well.
The rates absolutely do not and must not be raised to those levels, any time soon.
Comparisons to western economies are valid. Look at the USA and rest of Europe.