LTE/4G -What can we realistically expect?

[ps3ud0]

LTE/4G - What can we realistically expect?

Like many others here, Im very much looking forward to LTE/4G, which hopefully will be here in early 2013. I really could see this changing the way we use the internet in the home aswell as outside it and it could be a bigger game changer than 3G/HSPA was when it came out.

No doubt weve been swept away with the amazing bandwidth it technically can provide (think its something silly like 80Mb/s in real world trial usage; theoretical is just too insane to mention ), so I thought it might be something worth discussing, especially understanding how this could be rolled out to the average joe and setting the realistic expectation on what we would eventually get and how much the improvement would be over 3G.

So a few questions to get a discussion going:

1) Obviously we wont see 80Mb/s, but what could we get once its across the UK? Do we expect it to start slowly and ramp up speed like 3G/HSPA did?

2) Any ideas about the actual rollout and how long it will take? Is it something that would need more telco masts or upgrades to what we have already? Could we see a reduction considering the improvements in 4G mast range (could reduce bandwidth though)?

3) Will this be the death of WiMax (if it ever was actually alive to begin with in the EU) regards providing useful internet access coverage at comparable home broadband speeds. What about HSPA+ or other 3GPP techs?

4) Could LTE replace home broadband in some extents (thinking it wont for gaming as I doubt it will be fully stable with low pings)? Would you consider it an option?

5) How do you think this will affect mobile telephony bills - could it mean the end of download/speed caps or further enforcement of those or even more layered mobile phone plans? Remember 4G licenses wont be cheap, though lets hope they arent 3G silly...

I do wonder if its getting to the time where an individual has one mobile plan but can have multiple devices/SIMs on that plan so you can use your allowance as you please between your smartphone, tablet, laptop, portables games console etc...

6) LTE Phones are already out there - any ideas if it affects battery life or reception in any way?

7) Finally what do you consider LTEs USP? Or do you think its just more of the same, just faster...

Sorry for the large amount of questionsn- thought it might help some people kickstart their thoughts - dont expect answers to most, let alone all! I know its still far off, but I cant help but be excited by the possibilities LTE could bring - a completely mobile 'wired' world is quite a concept, especially considering complementary technology (HUDs, AR etc...)

ps3ud0

 

[SKILL]

1) Seen reports/benchmarks from the states of getting 30-40mbps if you've got a good signal

2) I think the rollout will take a while, there's still a fair few area's without 3G let alone going up a step further, although iirc it's being run on a lower frequency which should be better for distance?

3) WiWhat?

4/5) I think it'll be capped to the hilt, which makes it kinda useless as a home broadband connection

6) Currently yes, but currently I believe all the 4G phones utilise the same external radio chip, most of the newer SoC's rolling out over the course of this year will have 4G built in and be a lot better for power consumption

7) Don't think it has one, like you say 'more of the same, just faster'

I'm also looking forward to it, just a shame that the pings will inevitably suck, ultimately I get ~2mbps on my phone both at home and at work, it's not pleasant to browse on through because the ping is ~2-300ms, I'd rather have 512kbps and a ping <80 frankly.

 

[Glaucus]

I can't see it being early 2013, the auction will be delayed again.
I also hope they do implement their idea of adding to the contract that not spots have to be upgraded and near the start of the roll out.

 

[jon86]

...
I'm also looking forward to it, just a shame that the pings will inevitably suck, ultimately I get ~2mbps on my phone both at home and at work, it's not pleasant to browse on through because the ping is ~2-300ms, I'd rather have 512kbps and a ping <80 frankly.

Indeed. My pings are 150 - 350ms with full signal at work on Three, which undoubtedly has the fastest 3G network in the country. Virgin Media usually gives me a ping on 30 - 70 at home.

 

[Myshra]

For the record, 4G is LTE to me. Saying it's HSPA+ is a marketing gimmick from T-Mo USA that they should be shot for.

Ping isn't related to network really, I can ping ~ 40 where I am now (Orange HQ I admit), it's more to do with the connection type (HSPA has a lot better latency management for example, the sliding window is really small) and distance / cable connection from the tower to the hardpoint where the radio networks meet the internet.

Roughly speaking you should expect 2014 earliest, rollout will be like HSDPA (towns first), it's expensive so don't expect it all over the countryside but the signal propagates further at the likely bands so it will be more akin to 2G coverage with 3G speeds at the outer cell range. LTE phones MASSACRE battery currently, but this will be fixed as radios become better, same as with 3G to be honest.

As for your other points, it's a bit more technical than saying "LTE replaces HSPA" because of the design, it's more evolution than revolution would be the way I'd phrase it I guess, 3G is here to stay long term as it's a great call carrier and 4G isn't currently. What will happen though is around 2016 I would expect 2G to get the boot, the legacy network is strong but holds networks back quite a bit. I don't really expect anything but marketing for the 4G launch, I expect it to take to 2016 before LTE is truly prevalent.

 

[ps3ud0]

Sounds like theres zero expectation for it to replace home broadband, which is a shame; perhaps though pings will improve over time...

I can't see it being early 2013, the auction will be delayed again.
I also hope they do implement their idea of adding to the contract that not spots have to be upgraded and near the start of the roll out.

Well sometime in the near future - near enough for it to be a consideration to some. With 2 year contracts being the standard theres a chance this year might be peoples last 3G phone...

For the record, 4G is LTE to me. Saying it's HSPA+ is a marketing gimmick from T-Mo USA that they should be shot for.

Agreed, as good as HSPA+ is for speeds its still more 3.5+G than 4G. We will probably say the same for LTE Advanced in a fair few more years though

As for your other points, it's a bit more technical than saying "LTE replaces HSPA" because of the design, it's more evolution than revolution would be the way I'd phrase it I guess, 3G is here to stay long term as it's a great call carrier and 4G isn't currently. What will happen though is around 2016 I would expect 2G to get the boot, the legacy network is strong but holds networks back quite a bit. I don't really expect anything but marketing for the 4G launch, I expect it to take to 2016 before LTE is truly prevalent.

So similar to the analogue broadcast switch-off we are feeling now - once 2G is removed what could we do with that extra frequency space and is that space something the telcos could explore or could it just be returned to OFCOM for use elsewhere?

ps3ud0

 

[Myshra]

It depends how spectrum gets divided up - if o2/voda re-use 900 for 4G it can sit over the top of 2G to a large extent. 3/EE have a vested interest in the 800Mhz block - it would make the network design cheaper for their combined network plan. The delay in network auction has made a huge impact on us in my opinion, while there is no mega demand for data (all networks are coping within reason) there will be in the next 2 years.

The old 1800Mhz spectrum could either be used for 4G, legacy 2G or they could just hold it in reserve / capacity incase the 800Mhz spectrum slot they get is too small for some areas.

 

[ps3ud0]

I guess EE have decided theres no value in 1800Mhz for them and why they are selling all/part of it off. Are all the mobile operators running 3G at 900Mhz now then? My finding with indoor reception tells a different story (though I might have the wrong end of the stick)...

EDIT: Actually sorry its more EE are forced to auction 1800 since merging

ps3ud0

 

[Scougar]

ps3eud0> That was exactly my point, indoor reception generally sucks for 3G unfortunately. I work within about 100 metres of a cell mast, and in my office I can't even get 2G reliably. 25% of the time to get reception is about right, it's on and off all day, sometimes 3G sometimes 2G, sometimes (At lot) nothing at all. Building is like a faraday cage I assume lol.

3G in general is STILL terrible for battery life (and I'm not talking about hunting for a signal all day). We've had 3G for year's and it still isn't reliable even in a city.]

Tech moves on, but sometimes I wish they get the grounding right. I reckon we will see a lot more 'sealed' phones, so they can more easily fit in bigger batteries to limit the damage from 4G.

Personally I think it will be a sad day when low power calling goes, but I'm looking forward to the future, who isn't!