London Marathon Woman dies

garriec said:
What isn't correct is the fact he tried to use two statistics in conjunction with each other which bare absolutely no resemblance to one another. It's just plain wrong...
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Quite a few people seem to be having dificulity getting their heads around this. As desires said above:
desires said:
Just so people know average life expectancy is the reciprocal of average chance of dying so the original thingy was correct, but said in a way that sounds wierd and you wouldn't expect to be correct.
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And I showed in this post.

The two statistics are intimately related - you're wrong to say they "bare absolutely no resemblance to one another".

garriec said:
...you don't have to be good at statistics to be able to see that the two figures don't relate.
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No, and you'd be wrong. It seems this thread shows you do have to be a little bit good at statistics to see the relationship though.
 
cheets64 said:
that bad? is there not a fitness test to get in, I noticed that Arg bloke from that Essesxs show did it and took him 6 hours so basically he just ended up walking the whole thing. Daily mail showed his timings and hit took him 58mins to do the last 5k
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For people who haven't trained properly yes, for those who are injured yes.

There is no fitness test, but I can't understand that if you are going to run something so high profile as the London Marathon how/why you would not train properly???

I didn't want any injury and wanted to complete in a good time so did the training and if I am honest with you - that was the worst part of it all!

The day itself was brilliant :)

BB x
 
BrightonBelle said:
For people who haven't trained properly yes, for those who are injured yes.

There is no fitness test, but I can't understand that if you are going to run something so high profile as the London Marathon how/why you would not train properly???

I didn't want any injury and wanted to complete in a good time so did the training and if I am honest with you - that was the worst part of it all!

The day itself was brilliant :)

BB x
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A good time, what you get under the 3hr mark:)
How long did you train for, i hear some people say you want to train atleast for 12 months for a marathon.
 
So you're saying the lady died after falling, breaking a leg, then being shot by her owner.
 
clv101 said:
I'm not making any assumption of a uniform distribution - I'm saying on average someone has a 1/30,000 chance of death on any given day, which is perfectly correct. Everything SpeedFreak and I have said contains the proviso of an average demographic.
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That's not correct, the death rate of a population does not equate to the odds of a specific individual dying. So someone (a specific person) does not have a 1/30000 chance of dying on a given day, it's stupid to take a statistic for a population and apply it to an individual, especially when the age of the person is vitally important (see Gompertz-Makeham Law of Mortality)
 
bakes0310 said:
A good time, what you get under the 3hr mark:)
How long did you train for, i hear some people say you want to train atleast for 12 months for a marathon.
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No not under 3 hours - I was never heading to that!

Started training about 6months before - only decided to do it in October.

Came in at 4hours 43mins and 13secs - no walking or stopping!

Considering I hate running that isn't bad! :o

BB x
 
bam0 said:
That's not correct, the death rate of a population does not equate to the odds of a specific individual dying.
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I'm afraid it does. The death rate of a population is nothing but the aggregated odds of all the specific individuals dying!

I really don't get why folks are having a hard time with this, take a group of around 30,000 people for a day, then because life expectancy is around 30,000 days and assuming this group has average demographic of the country, we can expect one of them to die. That's all SpeedFreak said in his original post and it's 100% correct.
 
I read this just yesterday with my friend and I was absolutely shocked.. I couldn't think straight for nearly an hour afterwards, I was just so emotionally shaken.. This woman gave more than any amount of money could ever give. I hope she rests in peace. Bless her.
 
Burnsy2023 said:
Just FYI, the current total on Just Giving as around £340k. That means Justgiving will make around £17K of this as a fee.
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I thought that they were a not for profit organaisation. Is that the case or do they have a high paid board?

edit: The CEO and co founder is paid £150k which is pretty low all things considered. It also seems that they are VAT exempt which increases their operating costs.
 
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clv101 said:
I'm afraid it does. The death rate of a population is nothing but the aggregated odds of all the specific individuals dying!

I really don't get why folks are having a hard time with this, take a group of around 30,000 people for a day, then because life expectancy is around 30,000 days and assuming this group has average demographic of the country, we can expect one of them to die. That's all SpeedFreak said in his original post and it's 100% correct.
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This is what you said in the post I was replying to
clv101 said:
I'm saying on average someone has a 1/30,000 chance of death on any given day, which is perfectly correct.
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That is not perfectly correct, the specific odds of me dying are much less than 1/30000. I don't get why you're having a hard time understanding that the general statistics for a population don't map directly to a specific individual. I'm presuming you didn't read the link I gave.
 
It is correct that on average someone has 1/30,000 chance of death on a day! Sure, on specific days, the odds will be quite different, on day 10,000 (age 27) the chance is far lower than on day 27,000 (age 74). But on average it come out to around 1/30,000 - simply because we're likely to live around 30,000 days and only die once.
 
clv101 said:
It is correct that on average someone has 1/30,000 chance of death on a day! Sure, on specific days, the odds will be quite different, on day 10,000 (age 27) the chance is far lower than on day 27,000 (age 74). But on average it come out to around 1/30,000 - simply because we're likely to live around 30,000 days and only die once.
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Sure, but is the average marathon-running person the same as the average person nationwide? I think not.

Stats arguments are fun!
 
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