Poll: A decision that could cost your life! Which button?

[madtoady]

Which button guys?

 

[Yrkoon]

the red one?

 

[lukeharvest]

The first, obviously, the probability of walking away with the £1 billion on the second is only 25% (not that it'd be worth risking it for even 50%).

 

[Kamwah]

The first, obviously, the probability of walking away with the £1 billion on the second is only 25% (not that it'd be worth risking it for even 50%).

How is the probability 25%? There's two outcomes which I'm pretty sure means 50% chance.

I'd go green.

 

[PermaBanned]

Is this supposed to be a hard choice?

 

[Mason-]

Red.

Even if you won the money on green a billion dollars is too much money for any person.

 

[lukeharvest]

How is the probability 25%? There's two outcomes which I'm pretty sure means 50% chance.

I'd go green.

There are four possible outcomes with the green button

1) You win the £1 billion and don't get killed
2) You win the £1 billion and get killed
3) You don't win the £1 billion and don't get killed
4) You don't win the £1 billion and get killed

All four outcomes have a probability of 0.5*0.5 = 0.25/25% of occurring and since you get killed on 2) and 4) and won't win anything on 3) there's only a 25% chance of really winning the money.

EDIT: To be honest, a more interesting discussion is the same situation, but with a 1% chance of death as opposed to 50%. Since you either have to be stupid or suicidal to go with green, whereas a 1% chance of death would actually provoke a more interesting discussion.

 

[Kamwah]

There are four possible outcomes with the green button

1) You win the £1 billion and don't get killed
2) You win the £1 billion and get killed
3) You don't win the £1 billion and don't get killed
4) You don't win the £1 billion and get killed

All four outcomes have a probability of 0.5*0.5 = 0.25/25% of occurring and since you get killed on 2) and 4) and won't win anything on 3) there's only a 25% chance of really winning the money.

EDIT: To be honest, a more interesting discussion is the same situation, but with a 1% chance of death as opposed to 50%. Since you either have to be stupid or suicidal to go with green, whereas a 1% chance of death would actually provoke a more interesting discussion.

My bad. I didn't see the & and assumed it was a OR.

 

[kwerk]

What about being paid $1,000,000,000 to have 'all inputs' sex with either:

A. a morbidly obese 50 year old woman (like that rich Australian lady)

or

B. a very high quality PRE-op transsexual.

 

[David91]

What about being paid $1,000,000,000 to have 'all inputs' sex with either:

A. a morbidly obese 50 year old woman (like that rich Australian lady)

or

B. a very high quality PRE-op transsexual.

Well this thread degenerated quickly...

 

[[FnG]magnolia]

I was already amused and learning about probability and then a kwerk happened.

Do you think he sees in 3D? Can we keep him? Please?

 

[RickST]

I might write a script to see how long on average it takes for kwerk to kill a thread.

 

[Destination]

What about being paid $1,000,000,000 to have 'all inputs' sex with either:

A. a morbidly obese 50 year old woman (like that rich Australian lady)

or

B. a very high quality PRE-op transsexual.

Seriously kwerk, for a billion, I'd do both.

 

[413x]

I'd do most things for million

 

[kevy1986]

There are four possible outcomes with the green button

1) You win the £1 billion and don't get killed
2) You win the £1 billion and get killed
3) You don't win the £1 billion and don't get killed
4) You don't win the £1 billion and get killed

All four outcomes have a probability of 0.5*0.5 = 0.25/25% of occurring and since you get killed on 2) and 4) and won't win anything on 3) there's only a 25% chance of really winning the money.

EDIT: To be honest, a more interesting discussion is the same situation, but with a 1% chance of death as opposed to 50%. Since you either have to be stupid or suicidal to go with green, whereas a 1% chance of death would actually provoke a more interesting discussion.

I never want to see Bayes theorem again after my last exam !

 

[sketchytom]

What about being paid $1,000,000,000 to have 'all inputs' sex with either:

A. a morbidly obese 50 year old woman (like that rich Australian lady)

or

B. a very high quality PRE-op transsexual.

for that cash i would do both

 

[Devrij]

Seriously kwerk, for a billion, I'd do both.

Most people would do it for less.

Any time I do the "how much money would it take for you to be bummed by a big hairy biker?" test, you can usually get people as low as 10k. That's a lot of cash. One night of pain for all your debt cleared. Not a bad trade lol.

 

[atpbx]

There are four possible outcomes with the green button

1) You win the £1 billion and don't get killed
2) You win the £1 billion and get killed
3) You don't win the £1 billion and don't get killed
4) You don't win the £1 billion and get killed

All four outcomes have a probability of 0.5*0.5 = 0.25/25% of occurring and since you get killed on 2) and 4) and won't win anything on 3) there's only a 25% chance of really winning the money.

EDIT: To be honest, a more interesting discussion is the same situation, but with a 1% chance of death as opposed to 50%. Since you either have to be stupid or suicidal to go with green, whereas a 1% chance of death would actually provoke a more interesting discussion.

I think youve read too much into the question its meant to be a 50/50 choice of a billion or death to encourage a light hearted discussion about chance.

I very much doubt it was written to provoke anything deeper than that.

 

[Col_M]

I'd press the red one 1000 times, problem solved.

 

[Castiel]

I wouldn't know what to do with a billion dollars anyway.