Nokia not out of the doo doo yet

[Glaucus]

It is the same shared kernals and notice how ms have said 400mlion devices not computers. See how they are pushing developers to develop for all three platforms.
Yes they are essentially the same and being drivin as one.

Linux does not have the android store integrated for example.

 

[bam0]

Yes you do double potential, more than double.
Win7 was available on desktops and laptops, now with win8 you can add tablets and phones.

Combined iOS and Android have nearly twice as many devices as MS have sold Windows 7 licenses, and you're expecting W8 to come in and take anything like a significant portion of that market from them, and in a short time?! Do you not realise how late they are to the party? You think that many people have held of buying a phone or tablet because they were waiting for Microsoft to do it "right"?
To be clear I'm not saying it's going to flop massively, I'm just trying to point out the Herculean task they're setting for themselves. They did it once before with the Xbox, but there was a unique change in the market at that point, game consoles were becoming a more adult acceptable activity so there were new people to sell to and the loss of Sega opened space. I don't see what they're going to leverage in this situation to do something similar.

 

[DIABLO]

No they based on the same kernal, just like the Android kernal is based on a Linux kernal. They may well be being driven as one OS but that is marketing for you.

 

[Glaucus]

People change phones every 1-2 years unlike computers they have a short life. So yes they certainly can. But what pcs do iOS and android have? That's right non, which makes a difference on install base and how many apps can be sold.
What is the massive market share in corporations? That's right windows. Apart from the companies that have rolled out iPads. What are companies going to buy. Windows tablet and phones or apple/android? Especially seeing as both the alternatives are missing key features for corporations.

Many corporations want to replace their BB but haven't yet.
Am I saying they can take apple of the pedestal in the short term? Hell no, not even close. Have they set them self up after losing the mantle for a good come back. Yes they have. Now we just need to wait for numbers, so far it's very promising.

 

[Glaucus]

No they based on the same kernal, just like the Android kernal is based on a Linux kernal. They may well be being driven as one OS but that is marketing for you.

It's not the aw at all. They do not share the store the UI.
It's not just based on the same kernal. It pretty much is the same kernals. Same Apis work on all versions etc. all have same UI all have the same store.

 

[DeathStorm]

As for W8 having "hundreds of millions install base very quickly", where do you get that idea from? Windows 7 (the fastest selling OS) took a year to sell 175 million copies (consumer and business), Android is currently doing that in 4.5 months and still growing.

Let's ignore that you're comparing the whole Android platform to just 1 version of Windows and let's ignore that they're different markets, those figures sound a bit high. The only figures I've found seem to indicate around 40 million per quarter, where's it showing they're making over 4 times that?

 

[DeathStorm]

Initial figures? The OS isn't even for sale yet, you've got to accept that predicting first year sales before you've sold a single copy is a basically guessing.

Surface has apparently sold out, does that not somehow qualify?

You also aren't doubling the potential market, Windows 8 sells to people who already have PCs to upgrade from what they have, you aren't going to be putting it on your iPad or Android tablet, so the software alone is not selling to them. On the device front you are probably going to lose some of your "PC" sales to the tablets both RT and Pro.

I don't think it'll double its market but it will give it the opportunity for more sales, if they manage to steal 10% of iOS/Android sales that's a lot of extra business no?

We're arguing over semantics but do you think Microsoft really cares if it amkes a 'PC' sale or a RT/Pro sale? They'll want you on the Microsoft platform where you have added reasons to get more devices on that platform.

Also, despite sharing a kernel, WP8 is not W8.

Sure but so what? His point stands that developers will like/take advantage of the fact their development model for the Windows platform is now a lot easier to target more customers.

 

[DIABLO]

It's not the aw at all. They do not share the store the UI.
It's not just based on the same kernal. It pretty much is the same kernals. Same Apis work on all versions etc. all have same UI all have the same store.

For one PC's use CISC CPU's and mobiles are almost entirely use ARM CPU's which are RISC, so i very much doubt it's a 5 minute job porting apps from one to the other.

 

[bam0]

Let's ignore that you're comparing the whole Android platform to just 1 version of Windows and let's ignore that they're different markets, those figures sound a bit high. The only figures I've found seem to indicate around 40 million per quarter, where's it showing they're making over 4 times that?

Sure it's not a perfect comparison, but they're only selling one consumer version of Windows at a time aren't they. As for the Android numbers, Google themselves claim 1.3 million activations per day, which comes out 4.5 months for 175 million https://plus.google.com/u/0/110023707389740934545/posts/R5YdRRyeTHM

 

[Glaucus]

What do you mean only selling one version at a time?

They are all windows 8 and all have the store and all add to the potential market for app developers.

For one PC's use CISC CPU's and mobiles are almost entirely use ARM CPU's which are RISC, so i very much doubt it's a 5 minute job porting apps from one to the other.

They can use the same librarys its very easy to port. Again 94% off apps on the win 8 store are available on both platforms.

Windows handles the low level stuff, that isn't how things are programmed these days. We've moved on from machine code.

 

[bam0]

For one PC's use CISC CPU's and mobiles are almost entirely use ARM CPU's which are RISC, so i very much doubt it's a 5 minute job porting apps from one to the other.

Those kind of differences are abstracted away by the IS/development environment, devs aren't really going to have to concern themselves with what chips they're running on. Windows phone 8 does have different apis though, hence having it's own SDK. For example, XNA is available on WP8 but not W8, but W8 can do html5 metro apps whereas WP8 can't as the availability for JavaScript to access the apis isn't there. Yes, the two share a lot, but they aren't the same.

 

[bam0]

What do you mean only selling one version at a time?

They are all windows 8 and all have the store and all add to the potential market for app developers.

We were discussing Windows 7 there.

 

[Fallen god]

Business is one place MS really need to focus on, they really should have started it from there, when I heard wp7 was coming I thought it would be a business facing product, but it lacked a lot of things and it seemed like MS was taking on iOS and android which is just stupid :S. RIM is weak right now and it shouldn't take to much of a push to kill them off when you compare the effort it would take to steal people from iOS or android.

However saying that when we had a meeting about what phones we would be getting in 2013, one person said how about WP8, then another said and I quote "I cant carry around a WP people will laugh at me." and just turned into a joke. I see this happen a lot at work, were a lot of people just hate MS products, its the reason why we are always out of stock for MBP at work but no one wants the "crappy windows machine" as it has been called so often. W8 is nice its getting the game together but I feel its not right in the business, metro apps aren't very productive, the UI is nice but its really a tablet facing UI, where iPad has so many of the big businesses apps already running why would you change?

 

[Glaucus]

And if asked now, would they laugh.
A lot of companies have not rolled out tablets and w8 is far more set up for corporations. From encryption to the corporation appl launch thing to intergration. Let's also not forget MS support always comes out far above apple in corporation ratings.

More play UI than iOS? Are you kidding keyboards on every tablet, coporation app launch, encryption, snap screen, traditional desktop, office etc etc.

 

[Fallen god]

This was at a recent meeting, to be fair the dude who said that hates windows with a passion. I think if MS can really push it wp8 for business it could easily eat RIM cake, and this would give them some really good market share, people comparing it to there personally phone/showing their friends. I think it would be a great place to really dominate, right now at work they really want to get the iPhone5 purely cause its cool, everyone hates using the new curve and you cant really blame them, I'm kinda of tired of switching from keyboard to touch screen and so on. Its really good with email/calendar as we only use outlook but this is a MS product and surely no one can do it better then them.

 

[DeathStorm]

Sure it's not a perfect comparison, but they're only selling one consumer version of Windows at a time aren't they. As for the Android numbers, Google themselves claim 1.3 million activations per day, which comes out 4.5 months for 175 million https://plus.google.com/u/0/110023707389740934545/posts/R5YdRRyeTHM

Here we go, Android mobile units:

2012 Q1 - 81 million
2012 Q2 - 98 million

So yes those numbers do make sense, I'm just a little surprised when you look at ownership by version and Gingerbread has nearly 60%. I think your point holds up that the real numbers are on the mobile side of things but I don't think you should ignore his point that there will be some trickle down effect from having a simplified development model on Windows for desktop or mobile.

Speaking as a developer I see the attraction but I'm not getting away from still treating Metro and desktop as two separate environments to target, i.e. I'm not sure how much success you'd have shoehorning a desktop app into Metro for the sake of getting it onto Windows phone.

What will be interesting to see is if Windows Phone does well whose market share is it going to eat into? As a platform I think it's more of a natural enemy to iPhone than Android due to the user experience.

 

[feedtheram]

This was at a recent meeting, to be fair the dude who said that hates windows with a passion. I think if MS can really push it wp8 for business it could easily eat RIM cake, and this would give them some really good market share, people comparing it to there personally phone/showing their friends. I think it would be a great place to really dominate, right now at work they really want to get the iPhone5 purely cause its cool, everyone hates using the new curve and you cant really blame them, I'm kinda of tired of switching from keyboard to touch screen and so on. Its really good with email/calendar as we only use outlook but this is a MS product and surely no one can do it better then them.

I was in a meeting last week where a chap brought his iPad along. Spent the first 5 minutes talking about how it was so much better than his laptop.

Meeting started and i asked him to show me a spreadsheet he was talking about. After a few minutes he managed to open it in some weird format that looked turd. I told him to go get his laptop.

 

[feedtheram]

Sure it's not a perfect comparison, but they're only selling one consumer version of Windows at a time aren't they. As for the Android numbers, Google themselves claim 1.3 million activations per day, which comes out 4.5 months for 175 million https://plus.google.com/u/0/110023707389740934545/posts/R5YdRRyeTHM

And MS is making money on every one of them.

It isn't about quality. The WP operating system is as good if not better than iOS and Android. All have their own benefits and weaknesses. This isn't really up for debate.

The massive task MS and Nokia have is 'selling' the idea of a Windows Phone. As mentioned many people don't like 'windows' and think it's uncool. It's sad that people would choose a device on this basis but i guess people just suck at life.

Someone mentioned 5%...I don't think that's too bad given that only one company is really driving this os so far.

This is why I think W8 is so important. If it becomes popular then people may just be that bit happier to try a MS product. And with the death of BB imminent there is a gap for them to try and jump on.

If they can get 10% by the end of 2013 i would see this as a big achievement. And this is why i think MS is the only company that could pull this off....it's gonna cost a lot of money...but in the long term if they can pull it off it will make them the money back a hundred times over

 

[edgedemon]

Business is one place MS really need to focus on, they really should have started it from there, when I heard wp7 was coming I thought it would be a business facing product, but it lacked a lot of things and it seemed like MS was taking on iOS and android which is just stupid :S. RIM is weak right now and it shouldn't take to much of a push to kill them off when you compare the effort it would take to steal people from iOS or android.

However saying that when we had a meeting about what phones we would be getting in 2013, one person said how about WP8, then another said and I quote "I cant carry around a WP people will laugh at me." and just turned into a joke. I see this happen a lot at work, were a lot of people just hate MS products, its the reason why we are always out of stock for MBP at work but no one wants the "crappy windows machine" as it has been called so often. W8 is nice its getting the game together but I feel its not right in the business, metro apps aren't very productive, the UI is nice but its really a tablet facing UI, where iPad has so many of the big businesses apps already running why would you change?

Made me laugh, our entire tech dept are the opposite and desperate to get ipad/macOS devices for staff consigned to the dustbin. One we have finished testing, we are hoping that we can start doing this Q1 next year.
Apple are OK, but they are not geared up for enterprise support, 10.6.xx broke authenticated IP printing for 7 months and mountain lion has currently broken .1x wifi access in a major way for us.
we can't stop students bringing in whatever device they want, but we will stop staff

 

[bam0]

And MS is making money on every one of them.

And? We weren't discussing the profit generation of each platform, we're talking numbers in the market.

It isn't about quality. The WP operating system is as good if not better than iOS and Android. All have their own benefits and weaknesses. This isn't really up for debate.

If it's "as good if not better" why isn't it selling well? I would say there is a high level of subjectivity involved and just because "All have their own benefits and weaknesses" doesn't mean those things are weighed equally.

The massive task MS and Nokia have is 'selling' the idea of a Windows Phone. As mentioned many people don't like 'windows' and think it's uncool. It's sad that people would choose a device on this basis but i guess people just suck at life.

Windows is a toxic brand, that's not important when you hold a monopoly such as they do on desktop OS's, but it matters a lot more when you have competition. You might think it's sad but it's not that unreasonable, suppose I released a fantastic phone at an awesome price but called it the Hitler phone, I shouldn't be surprised if people don't want to buy it.

Someone mentioned 5%...I don't think that's too bad given that only one company is really driving this device so far.

Heh, they wish they had 5% market share, in Q2 WP had 3.5% of sales worldwide so it'll be a lot lower than that in total active devices. You can also expect the Q3 and Q4 numbers to be lower as people waited for the WP8 devices. Funnily if you look at the US active subscribers data you'll find more people there using Windows Mobile than Windows Phone.

This is why I think W8 is so important. If it becomes popular then people may just be that bit happier to try a MS product. And with the death of BB imminent there is a gap for them to try and jump on.

Maybe, good luck to them. WP8 looks reasonable, the devices look nice and they'll sell. Will they sell enough to carve out some space as a real 3rd option? We'll see.

If they can get 10% by the end of 2013 i would see this as a big achievement. And this is why i think MS is the only company that could pull this off....it's gonna cost a lot of money...but in the long term if they can pull it off it will make them the money back a hundred times over

10% of sales, a tripling of their current position, in a semi mature market. Could happen, as you though it'd be expensive although given their history with the Xbox they clearly aren't averse to spending although I don't think they've made back the money that cost them a hundred time over yet