The metOffice long term prediction models have come back with another indication it could be a very cold winter again this time around, according to the express.
Personally i'm waiting on a blog that analyzes all the current models and bases their bias towards what the majority think will happen, combined with any particularly strong indicators, due tomorrow.
The main indicator that it discusses is the shutting down of the arctic cyclones that drive the wind patterns around our end of the northern hemisphere, indicated by a warming of the stratosphere .. I didn't understand it fully because some of it is pretty complicated, but basically if the wind shuts down enough, we get a large blocking high pressure develop and extend from the arctic and scandinavian region which brings lots of cold weather. We already had a bit of one this weekend, and I think the short term weather indicates another drop in temps the end of this week.
If the blocking patterns continue to develop and remain for any longer than a few days, then yes, it could get pretty cold. HOWEVER we can't actually predict if that will happen enough and at the right times to make snow blizzards.
It certainly seems like this winter has the potential to get very cold in the UK, time to fit the fatties on my bike and unpack the sledge again
Heres the sauce im referring to:
http://ukweather.wordpress.com/winter-201213/