The future without oil, minerals etc

You're asuming we haven't replaced oil by this point.
Also for national grid and gas for heating. Oil isn't used anyway. Well there's a tiny bit on the national grid still but it's being phased out.

Roll out of electric vehicles is allready underway. Oil doesn't have to be used to make plastics/fertiliser etc. in fact most of it isn't made from oil anyway. It's made from gas by products.

Also oil isn't going to suddenly run out either. We have plenty of time for the switch. We don't have to ditch oil 100% we just need to match any decline in oil, with increase in alternative fuels/products.

People also forget that crude oil contains a lot of different things that are distiller off, Not all are in high demand. So a shortage in petroleum, does not automatically mean a shortage for all the other by products of crude oil.

Yes i was assuming oil hadn’t been replaced in my scenario. Also i was assuming we were talking about all fossil fuels, not just oil.

Even though surely in your vision, millions will be caught out and hence millions will still die. Even now just because of high prices of oil/gas/fuel, 1000's of people worldwide die because they cant they cant afford it. With technological advances, the people in most need will get it last.
 
All fossil fuels won't run out, even oil won't run out. Just look at fracturing and shale.

There's a massive difference between poverty and a direct Los of life due to oil suplliers ending.
 
Ok.Most of the answers are, we will be fine, we will find something else, I am guessing those who are arguing this are not professionals working in the field.

True, but some of us have looked at what professionals working in the relevant fields are saying.

The issue isn't running out of things per se. It's the increase in costs of acquiring them. What's running out isn't the materials, it's the more easily obtained materials. If you have to dig deeper or do more complex processing of raw materials to extract the required materials, it's more expensive.

On the other hand, improvements in technology can reduce the requirement for the more expensive materials. Take batteries as an example. There are advanced prototypes of lithium-based batteries that use far less lithium. They may well be commericially viable within 5 years. There are experimental results indicating the possibility of making batteries solely from very common materials. In other words, there's a strong possibility of a continuing decrease in the requirements for finite materials that are becoming more expensive as the easily obtained deposits are used up.

On another hand (all hold hands together, kumbaya!), improvements in technology can make extracting the required materials less expensive, thus making new deposits viable. We've seen this already - for example, many current oil wells wouldn't have been viable in the past. Deep water wells would have been impossible 100 years ago and ruinously expensive 50 years ago. Now they're common. The process continues. The most high-profile example is asteroid mining. There are huge mineral resources in asteroids. It's just about possible to mine an asteroid now, but it would be ruinously expensive. With improvements in technology, in decades to come it might become viable, like deep water oil wells.

On yet another hand, improvements in technology can replace some use of finite resources with much less finite resources. Nuclear fusion, for example, would dramatically reduce the need for more finite resources for power generation, replacing it with a need for hydrogen and simultaneously providing a way of easily obtaining hydrogen from a very plentiful resource - water. Fusion can easily provide such a superabundance of electricity that it would become viable to use loads of it to split water into hydrogen and oxygen to provide hydrogen for the fusion. It's also possible that improvements in technology will result in more efficient means of obtaining pure hydrogen - there are a variety of methods in the experimental stage at the moment. Then there are other methods of using much less finite resources to reduce the need to use more finite resources, all lumped together as "renewables". Some of them are already viable in some parts of the world (e.g. CSP is technologically viable in hot deserts, geothermal is viable in highly volcanic areas such as Iceland, etc) and improvements in technology will probably make more of them viable in more areas.

The question is which way the balance will tip - needed resources becoming too expensive or the expense being offset by the collection of other hands I describe above. Given the inventiveness of humanity, I think it'll tip the right way, into those hands. Humans are collectively very good at cobbling solutions together when it's really needed (and collectively rather bad at doing so in a planned way before).

Predictions seem to be usually off. But our resources are finite, of that most people wouldn't argue, unless of course something supernatural happens. So the mentality is, 'we will be fine for the next few years/decades so who cares'.

True on the whole, but thank goodness for scientists and engineers. "How does that work?" and "How can we make that work for us?" are the questions that will solve the problems for a lot longer than a few years or decades.

Fusion, for example, would provide an abundance of electricity until the end of the Earth. That's a lot longer than a few years or decades.

Nowadays, replace "supernatural" with "graphene" :)

But in reality there is no way to replace the efficiency of crude oil, maybe some ways to produce energy via Geo-Environmental resources, but no real way to replicate the plastics and all the chemicals we use that are distilled from oil in any efficient manner(respective to crude oil).

That is a genuine problem, but reducing the need to burn oil for energy would extend the useful lifespan of oil for the numerous other uses it's put to. Replacements are being worked on and that extra time makes it more likely that viable replacements would be found.

Point I am making is, finite + constant increasing demand does not equate and something has to give. Maybe I should join the green party.

Yes, something has to give. We can either bin civilisation, kill most people and have the remaining relatively few people live a stone age life or we can seek a solution through knowledge and practical implementation of that knowledge - science and engineering.

Come to think of it, even stone age life is partially dependent on finite resources. Stone tools and weapons wear quite quickly and there's a quite small finite supply of suitable stone that can be obtained with stone age technology.

Science and engineering is the only viable solution.
 
All fossil fuels won't run out, even oil won't run out. Just look at fracturing and shale.

There's a massive difference between poverty and a direct Los of life due to oil suplliers ending.

It will one day!! but like you said not at once and not abruptly so there will be something in place to replace when the time comes, but like i said those on the bottom of the ladder will be served last, including people in the developed world.

There is a difference but it’s all interlinked in one way or another, but i agree it won’t be a doomsday day scenario like the OP envisions.
 
Some reports say that there is only 6 years or known oil reserves left in UK waters and 9 years left in Norwegian waters. Links if needed.

You are talking complete and utter rot.
The amount of rot in your information would be sufficent if burned to carbonized the entire planet into a wasteland such as venus.

Super CO2 effect would result from burning all the rot present in the OP.
I advise against burning the OP.
 
You are talking complete and utter rot.
The amount of rot in your information would be sufficent if burned to carbonized the entire planet into a wasteland such as venus.

Super CO2 effect would result from burning all the rot present in the OP.
I advise against burning the OP.


Well give some info, every source gives 10 years max of proven oil reserves in UK waters, yes Norway have found a huge gas reserve but the UK have not, give me some source that says UK reserves are much more than 10 years?

It's all very well saying what you are saying but we could say anything such as the Dodo wasn't going to become extinct 10 years before it did, as 'Science would find a way to preserve it'. You can't just say, 'Oh palesse don't give me that ***p. The OP if talking so much bad words and stuff, the axe factor will save us' ....
 
Well give some info, every source gives 10 years max of proven oil reserves in UK waters, yes Norway have found a huge gas reserve but the UK have not, give me some source that says UK reserves are much more than 10 years?

It's all very well saying what you are saying but we could say anything such as the Dodo wasn't going to become extinct 10 years before it did, as 'Science would find a way to preserve it'. You can't just say, 'Oh palesse don't give me that ***p. The OP if talking so much bad words and stuff, the axe factor will save us' ....

What is every source, link to all these fantastic sources.

You're believeing some complete tosh, there's an awful lot of oil left even in the North. maybe go and do some reading on the extraction methods and technologies and find some credible info on the amount left.
 
I reported a natural effect from burning all the carbon waste in the OP.
Might well be that the natural resources of oil run out before we finish burning all that OP.

Am I wrong when I say we currently import about as much oil as we produce?
So if we make less, we'll import more.
Else we'll move to alternative forms of energy production as oil becomes more expensive.
Like burning OPs.
 
What is every source, link to all these fantastic sources.

You're believeing some complete tosh, there's an awful lot of oil left even in the North. maybe go and do some reading on the extraction methods and technologies and find some credible info on the amount left.


I don't disagree with what you say in some regards. First I said proven reserves, second you talk about extraction methods, well as I am sure you will know, the Deepwater Horizon spill resulted from I think the deepest offshore well ever drilled, please correct me on that. Maybe there is oil under the polar caps. Maybe we will be able to drill all this oil we haven't discovered in the next few decades, I'll take your word for it though you sound like a real armchair oil exploration expert.
 
Well give some info, every source gives 10 years max of proven oil reserves in UK waters, yes Norway have found a huge gas reserve but the UK have not, give me some source that says UK reserves are much more than 10 years?

It's all very well saying what you are saying but we could say anything such as the Dodo wasn't going to become extinct 10 years before it did, as 'Science would find a way to preserve it'. You can't just say, 'Oh palesse don't give me that ***p. The OP if talking so much bad words and stuff, the axe factor will save us' ....

Provide evidence for this apparent industry forecast of only ten years..
 
Doom mongers said we would run out of farm land 100 years ago and then this happened. Turns out output can grow without ever increasing inputs.

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In the OPs own link, Robert Solow's critique sums it up

Robert M. Solow from MIT, argued that prediction in The Limit to Growth was based on a weak foundation of the data (Newsweek, March 13, 1972, page 103). Dr. Allen Kneese and Dr. Ronald Riker of Resources for the Future (RFF) stated:

"The authors load their case by letting some things grow exponentially and others not. Population, capital and pollution grow exponentially in all models, but technologies for expanding resources and controlling pollution are permitted to grow, if at all, only in discrete increments."[24]

The Hotelling rule should mean we don't have a rough bump when we do get close to non-increasing inputs in other sectors.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hotelling's_rule

However, even if there is a rough landing at that point, the world's output will continue to grow, because of technology.
 
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Oil was supposed to run out in the late 90s and the world was supposed to end in 1999. It seems to be a 15-20 year cycle once people have forgotten about the last scare.
 
Considering that the North Sea is getting £10bn investment from BP alone over the next 5 years, I think it's safe to say that there is more than 6 years of production left! Added to the shale resources that will come on-line, the UK is actually pretty well equipped for hydrocarbon resources in the next few decades. If not, we'll just invade Ireland as the Irish Sea resources are now economically and technically feasible to extract.

I'm on this project ;) considering it is planning on coming online in the next 5 years with a 20 year min life of field I wouldn't worry too much about the oil reserves. That combined with the total job and the like of dana petroleum investing an additional £1bn into the north sea alone!

The likes of totals ormen lange field coming on line next year will be another 20years or so of gas.

With all the development in the likes of brazil as well you'll be seeing oil well into when we die..........

i.e. OGX is looking at bringing 20 FPSO's online by 2020 all will have 20yr design life.

KaHn
 
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