Tour de France 2013 *** Spoilers ***

VeNT said:
joined.
not sure how I feel about skys chances, I think cav may be in with a chance this year.
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I havnt really seen much of Sagan this year but if he's on the same form as last year then he should easily beat Cav to the green jersey.
Cav's Omega-Pharma team are starting to get the hang of a leading him out and i dont doubt he'll get a few stage wins.
Problem is that Sagan is a great sprinter but also a very good climber. He'll be near the front on all the flat stages and also, if he can stay with the bunch on the intermediate stages (like 3, 7 and 16), then he should comfortably win those sprints as well.
 
I think its almost setup for Contadar to win the maillot jaune this year, he's a decent all rounder but such a good climber. No doubt he will have been beefing up for it.
 
The first three days sound like they could be mental. Lots of narrow, windy roads on Corsica and everyone will be vying to keep safe at the front. Ergo carnage.
 
Gone for Kennaugh for the white:p For some reason im feeling Froome for mountains with double points on offer and TJ for the win e/w so top 3.
 
Kimi said:
Gone for Kennaugh for the white:p For some reason im feeling Froome for mountains with double points on offer and TJ for the win e/w so top 3.
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As i said, i dont think Kennaugh will be anywhere near the front. I had a punt on TJ top3 as well though.

Paddypower are adding more options all the time.
Some interesting choices in the Head-to-Head betting.
These would all be worth a shot i rekon:
Fuglsang to beat Schleck - 2.1
Evans to beat Porte - 2.62
Valverde to beat J-Rod - 2.0
 
Put $10 on Sky to win the teams at 3.50, almost a dead cert in my eyes!

Also put $5 on Quintana to win KOM jersey at 11.00.
 
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touch said:
As i said, i dont think Kennaugh will be anywhere near the front. I had a punt on TJ top3 as well though.

Paddypower are adding more options all the time.
Some interesting choices in the Head-to-Head betting.
These would all be worth a shot i rekon:
Fuglsang to beat Schleck - 2.1
Evans to beat Porte - 2.62
Valverde to beat J-Rod - 2.0
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Totally agree about Kennaugh. Once he has been used up on a stage he will just peddle in in his own time the same as all the other Sky riders except Porte.

Such a shame Uran and Henao aren't in the Sky squad though.

Weaker team than last year I reckon.

Movistar for the best team compettion.
 
Berger said:
Put $10 on Sky to win the teams at 3.50, almost a dead cert in my eyes!
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the team prize is very hard to predict. I dont think Sky will win it, they have a single rider (Froome) with the rest of the team focused on getting him the overall win. The team prize is more likely to go to a team who have no individual leader and a lot of good GC guys who are working for themselves.

Sky, for example, had 1st and 2nd overall last year but still didnt win the team prize because the rest of the team worked entirely for their leaders and all finished much further down.

As isonomicjedi said, Movistar are the sort of team who are more liekly to win. Also BMC and Euskaltel look like good choices.
 
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touch said:
the team prize is very hard to predict. I dont think Sky will win it, they have a single rider (Froome) with the rest of the team focused on getting him the overall win. The team prize is more likely to go to a team who have no individual leader and a lot of good GC guys who are working for themselves.

Sky, for example, had 1st and 2nd overall last year but still didnt win the team prize because the rest of the team worked entirely for their leaders and all finished much further down.

As isonomicjedi said, Movistar are the sort of team who are more liekly to win. Also BMC and Euskaltel look like good choices.
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Calculated from the three best times per stage isn't it?

I would expect Sky to have two strong climbers with Froome almost to the line on most stages and with him being at the front end, the times to be quite equal.

I guess BMC or Movistar might throw someone up the road who could gain a few minutes easily, but on the mountain stages I'm not so sure.
 
Berger said:
Calculated from the three best times per stage isn't it?

I would expect Sky to have two strong climbers with Froome almost to the line on most stages and with him being at the front end, the times to be quite equal.

I guess BMC or Movistar might throw someone up the road who could gain a few minutes easily, but on the mountain stages I'm not so sure.
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Correct, 3 best times per stage.
Sky wont have 3 riders in the front group on the mountain stages though. There wouldnt be any benefit from them doing that.

edit: i should make clear that i do think there is a good chance of sky winning the team classification. I just dont think it's the 'dead cert' that you're suggesting
 
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touch said:
Correct, 3 best times per stage.
Sky wont have 3 riders in the front group on the mountain stages though. There wouldnt be any benefit from them doing that.

edit: i should make clear that i do think there is a good chance of sky winning the team classification. I just dont think it's the 'dead cert' that you're suggesting
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Sky will have 4 or even 5 riders riding on the front in the mountain stages but as each rider loses the watts he can put out he will then drop right back.

Last year it was Eddie-Bos and Michael Rogers but this year I dont think Eddie-Boss is in the same kind of form (despite his wining Norway Tour)

Kirienka was brought in to the team for this precise job and will ride on the front from the bottom of the mountain until he goes pop then Sioutsou and Eddie Bos will take over.

Richie Porte will be the last rider to stay with Chris Froome but it is most likely the others will be well back down the mountain pushing the easiest gear they can find to save energy for the next day.
 
Sorry, you're right. I didnt explain that correctly, i meant as they cross the line sky wont have 3 riders in there. The whole team will do their share of the work and drop off as they get tired.
If sky have 3 riders in the lead group at the end of a mountain stage then they have messed up their calculations. The job of the domestiques is to make the pace as hard as possible then drop off. If there are still 3 sky riders there at the end, then they didnt use all of the power that was available to them. That means that riders who were dropped didnt lose as much time as they could have done and some riders who stayed with the front group might have been dropped if it was faster.
 
touch said:
Sorry, you're right. I didnt explain that correctly, i meant as they cross the line sky wont have 3 riders in there. The whole team will do their share of the work and drop off as they get tired.
If sky have 3 riders in the lead group at the end of a mountain stage then they have messed up their calculations. The job of the domestiques is to make the pace as hard as possible then drop off. If there are still 3 sky riders there at the end, then they didnt use all of the power that was available to them. That means that riders who were dropped didnt lose as much time as they could have done and some riders who stayed with the front group might have been dropped if it was faster.
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Far better explanation. If at first you don't............
 
isonomicjedi said:
Far better explanation. If at first you don't............
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Yeah I know what you mean, I'm thinking the pace of sky will have lost the other team members from their rivals before they drop off having done their turn. Anyway, will see how they fair!

Cav is 1.80 to win the first stage, I'm not sure I would back him, but then again I can't see anyone beating him..
 
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